[Group Buy#2] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! 1 chip = .078BTC = 282Mhash!

[wrenchmonkey]

Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0

That would be one AWESOME rig to have.

I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.  

Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate.  Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down

Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.

At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.

Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.

But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.

Instead of "at current difficulty" you might as well say "In fantasy land"

Of course. I wasn't using this as a suggested jumping off point for investors. I was merely stating a fun fact.  Don't read too much into it, guys...

[Cobra]

ragingazn628 wanted me to confirm here that he provided a full refund at my request. The estimation of roi and time were just not computing very favorable for the level I was investing with only 60 chips.

[ragingazn628]

ragingazn628 wanted me to confirm here that he provided a full refund at my request. The estimation of roi and time were just not computing very favorable for the level I was investing with only 60 chips.

Thanks for confirming <3

[kong2029]

Let's keep this moving- we should be able to wrap this up this very soon.  Everyone in the group so far- make sure to post periodically to keep this topic on the front page of the forum section. 

People considering an Asic purchase: This is your group- Tom is already proven and his fees are better than the other groups out there.

[mitty]

Sent another 2 BTC earlier today, bringing my total to 5.44 BTC... will probably be throwing in some more over the next few days.  Thanks for organizing this ragingazn!

[Ataxx]

Gonna be bringing my total over 200 very soon. Hopefully will spark a surge to get us over the top.

[wrenchmonkey]

I think we need to set a deadline for sticking a fork in this thing. No serious movement in several days. If this thing takes much longer, we're gonna be so far back in the order queue, we'll never get our chips before Christmas.  

What do you guys think? Give it another week or two?  

[szym00]

I agree with you wrenchmonkey. How many orders we have now ragingazn628? How many chips left?

[kong2029]

According to the spreadsheet, we're over 50% of the way there counting commitments (not paid funds).  I think the most important part is going to be the next 30% and the last 20% will be filled with people looking for a group that is about to close their round. 

I think we need to keep this on the front page by posting periodically (before I had added this thread to my watchlist it took me 15 minutes to find it at one point) and I think we need a little patience as the recent volatility may have changed people's ROI assumptions.  With any luck we can have the order filled this week.

Raging/Tom: Perhaps you might also want to keep your eyes on other group buys that are being organized- we may want to consider merging groups to allow for a faster order?  I think we can all agree that time is of the essence.

Just my two cents-

Kong

[szym00]

Yes, I was also thinking about group merging during my morning coffee but who could manage it and take whole responsibility of buying, selling etc...

[jspielberg]

I am probably interested in around 500 (~40BTC)  but not without knowing the boards will work, and that I can find a local fab who can turn the PCB design into a completed product. I am therefore sitting for a bit, and I think many others are thinking the same.

I think there are a number of variables people are currently mulling over.
1) When will the chips be shipped? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
2) When will the opensource board designs be ready? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
3) Will Avalon have a B4 or are chip sales how they are accomplishing their goals of decentralization
4) Is Avalon working on a new smaller process node chip?

I think there will be a surge of activity once the test chips get out to BKKCoins and Burnin, and the boards are confirmed functional.

The price of this group buy though is hard to beat.

[kong2029]

I am probably interested in around 500 (~40BTC)  but not without knowing the boards will work, and that I can find a local fab who can turn the PCB design into a completed product. I am therefore sitting for a bit, and I think many others are thinking the same.

I think there are a number of variables people are currently mulling over.
1) When will the chips be shipped? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
2) When will the opensource board designs be ready? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
3) Will Avalon have a B4 or are chip sales how they are accomplishing their goals of decentralization
4) Is Avalon working on a new smaller process node chip?

I think there will be a surge of activity once the test chips get out to BKKCoins and Burnin, and the boards are confirmed functional.

The price of this group buy though is hard to beat.

We all have the same issues and the same risks.  The way I see it, because profitability is directly related to how fast we can get these asics hashing, we don't have time to wait until everything is proven.  To wait for the first reviews of Burnin's or another's boards means a wait of another 3 months or more (between queueing up for chips and the build)- which will represent a huge increase in network hash rate and corresponding loss of profitability.  There are a number of people working on boards and Avalon is going to release a spec as well shortly.  I think the odds of getting something working are pretty good, but to be safe I may hedge across 2 builders.  The key here is to get these in production before the rest of the bulk chip orders and BFL machines hit the network.

It's certainly more prudent to wait but you may not end up paying for your hardware anytime soon if you do. 

[wrenchmonkey]

The chances of a working system with these chips are 100%. Even if you don't count Burnin and Klondike projects, you can have an avalon clone made with the spec they'll be releasing in a couple of days.

I have every faith that both the Burnin and Klondike projects WILL come to fruition, but as somebody else mentioned, hedging bets and doing some of each might be the best option. Personally, I chose not to wait on the chip order, because I know the boards will be available from, at the very least, Avalon's source. The chips are urgent. The boards, we have time to figure out and decide. At any rate, the board options will be complete, available, and tested before the chips arrive in a few weeks. If you/we miss a chip order, we're out in the cold on this. I already have 85 chips coming from the last buy, but I'm really hoping to close this buy so I can bump my system up to 120 chips total.

[szym00]

I would like to add some words here... and I want to write that I am not affraid about the chips (if they are good or not) but about the documentation. I hope that it will be presented, as AVALON wrote, so there should not be problems with assembling them on the board. If the documentation shows everything about the signaling, pins IN/OUT, power etc. there will be a pleasure to solder it and make own mining machine I am electronic engineer and I am not affraid to make PCB... but withou the proper documentation chips will be only some "black elements" in my box
Soon I will collect my BTCs and send some to buy them.

[oda.krell]

Not sure if it's of any interest, but I am seriously considering joining the group buy for about 40btc, only problem is that a) I have nearly 0 understanding of how to build a system with those chips, and b) I didn't have the time yet to read up on this topic to determine if it makes sense for me to buy them.

[ragingazn628]

I agree with you wrenchmonkey. How many orders we have now ragingazn628? How many chips left?

We have ~7000 chips left.

you can see the spreadsheet.

According to the spreadsheet, we're over 50% of the way there counting commitments (not paid funds).  I think the most important part is going to be the next 30% and the last 20% will be filled with people looking for a group that is about to close their round.  

I think we need to keep this on the front page by posting periodically (before I had added this thread to my watchlist it took me 15 minutes to find it at one point) and I think we need a little patience as the recent volatility may have changed people's ROI assumptions.  With any luck we can have the order filled this week.

Raging/Tom: Perhaps you might also want to keep your eyes on other group buys that are being organized- we may want to consider merging groups to allow for a faster order?  I think we can all agree that time is of the essence.

Just my two cents-

Kong

I don't know how sucessful the merging would work people join specific group buys for better shipping etc. you know?

I am probably interested in around 500 (~40BTC)  but not without knowing the boards will work, and that I can find a local fab who can turn the PCB design into a completed product. I am therefore sitting for a bit, and I think many others are thinking the same.

I think there are a number of variables people are currently mulling over.
1) When will the chips be shipped? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
2) When will the opensource board designs be ready? (before/after/during B2 and B3)
3) Will Avalon have a B4 or are chip sales how they are accomplishing their goals of decentralization
4) Is Avalon working on a new smaller process node chip?

I think there will be a surge of activity once the test chips get out to BKKCoins and Burnin, and the boards are confirmed functional.

The price of this group buy though is hard to beat.

1) Avalon said 9-10 weeks ...
2) Don't know
3) I don't think a B4 will be possible with these chips in line...
4) Ask Avalon

---

Here's my 2 cents.

You can buy these chips and EASILY resell! Because they are really high in demand!

[fasmax]

I wish the group buy would move a little faster I really want the chips.

[mitty]

Threw in another 2.61 BTC... let's get this going.

[szym00]

We have ~7000 chips left.

uuuuu.... many :/ I think that we should think about the "group merging" idea because with this tempo we will not buy them on time.

[Kapz786]

I wanna grab 40 chips but doesnt look like there are any group buys close to ending

Combine this with SebastianJus group buy and we could almost order straight away?