Theory:once all the web fanfare and speculative interest is gone

[Tonko]

Bitcoin will return to obscurity.

Disclaimer: not that I personally want it to happen. Just a theory based on some reading and observations.

[tutkarz]

Bitcoin will return to obscurity.

Disclaimer: not that I personally want it to happen. Just a theory based on some reading and observations.

As long as there are no regulations (and i hope they will never be) speculative interest will never be gone. As for media its interest will be replaced by actual usage of bitcoin in many places. Im sure it will happend because no one wants the trouble with banks while making online payments.

[noedaRDH]

Bitcoin will return to obscurity.

Disclaimer: not that I personally want it to happen. Just a theory based on some reading and observations.

That's only to assume that no transactional use of Bitcoins will emerge by the time fanfare is gone, which is an unlikely scenario.

[1m1nd]

and when will that be? medium term things are looking good for bitcoin

[Spendulus]

No.  You are looking at one particular and microscopic current event.  Instead look at the general flow of events over five to ten years.  That is something like the time frame technological innovation plays out.

Consider.  In the 1980s a lot of people...business people...had car-mounted phones.  They all thought the technology was mature.  A lot of shops did "car phone installations."

Then there was the first portable, the "Motorola brick".  It was initially seen as just a novelty.

Next you know everyone you know had their pocket cell phone.  And they all thought the technology was mature?

But it wasn't.  Not at ALL.

The waves that came after that was every teenager having a cell phone, then almost every ten year old, then waves of smart phones and iphones.

Then it became obvious that the primary email device wasn't the computer any more, but the phone. 

And the phone became an app on a handheld device.

*****

Bitcoin is barely in the "car phone" stage.

[ManBearPig]

I have to say I find it hard to believe Bitcoin, or the spirit of Bitcoin will ever disappear.

What we saw with its birth is akin to the nascent Punk movement in 1976-1977.

Even if it ultimately fails it will not be consigned to obscurity - it will be remembered as the financial experiment that gave the bankers a kick up the arse. Got the suits scared. Flooded the world with nouveau-rich geeks who know more about wealth management than the inherited rich.

First there was:


Then came the:
:p

[Zaih]

I feel as if every single person who actively understands Bitcoin, sticks with it. Well from my experience at least.

[Welsh]

I do find this hard to believe. It's been targeted by the  medic and attacked many times and is still gaining power. A lot of merchants are starting to accept Bitcoin as well as the president from paypal said he's considering it. I know in my local area a few shops have started to provide some items for Bitcoin which is awesome.

[ManBearPig]

Even if you take out everyone's money who just wants to make a profit (that's all of us to some degree right?), there will be those who want to make this work for ideological reasons.

The more I hear about incidents like Bitcoin being laughed off the Colbert Report and the Canadian government simply shutting down businesses accepting Bitcoin I get that anger I had when I started going on protest marches in my teenage years, that passion that has stopped me simply accepting the inevitable.

Whichever cryptocurrency or open-source P2P payment system takes off, I am behind it 100%.

[KeyserSoze]

The more I hear about incidents like Bitcoin being laughed off the Colbert Report...

You realize Colbert belittles every topic in the world via satire? Topics get "laughed off the Colbert Report" in the same manner daily. Maybe appreciate the exposure instead.

Here's one where he satires banks by complaining about those who rail against banks, if it makes you feel better:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/01/17/colbert-praise-banks-since-they-have-not-destroyed-the-world-economy-in-four-years/

[Spendulus]

Even if you take out everyone's money who just wants to make a profit (that's all of us to some degree right?), there will be those who want to make this work for ideological reasons.

The more I hear about incidents like Bitcoin being laughed off the Colbert Report and the Canadian government simply shutting down businesses accepting Bitcoin I get that anger I had....

That, my friend, would be a mistake.  Publicity is publicity whether positive or negative and increases awareness.  Publicity turned to the end goal of propaganda is when the publicity is memes correlated with some sort of 'hot button emotional issue".  For example, bitcoin == kiddie porn.  Single cases of that sort of nonsense would be random; continued repetition over years would be a purposeful effort to destroy bitcoin. 

There are parallels with the efforts to ban firearms, in numerous respects.

[Tonko]

Lots of good answers and observations. Thanks!

[solidshotnosh]

I feel as if every single person who actively understands Bitcoin, sticks with it. Well from my experience at least.

I'm trying my best the understand bitcoin, so much of it seems way over my head.

But I think what you say is true, as soon as I first read about a few weeks ago, I haven't stopped since

[Spendulus]

I feel as if every single person who actively understands Bitcoin, sticks with it. Well from my experience at least.

Asymmetric adoption?

LOL....

[jimhsu]

Remember that

Nothing great has been achieved without irrational exuberance

The reason that we have a transcontinental rail system was because of a railroad bubble back in the 19th century. The reason that we have companies like Facebook and Twitter, that we can have telemedicine in India, that bandwidth is so cheap nowadays was because of the Internet bubble. And the reason that infrastructure will be adopted around Bitcoin promoting it to a real currency will be because of the many inevitable bubbles.

And yet people wonder why the tulip market is worth billions today. (We just have much more volume nowadays)

[Peter Lambert]

Bitcoin will return to obscurity.

Disclaimer: not that I personally want it to happen. Just a theory based on some reading and observations.

That's only to assume that no transactional use of Bitcoins will emerge by the time fanfare is gone, which is an unlikely scenario.

Right. If people develop uses for bitcoins, then they will keep using them after all the hype goes away. Once everybody is familiar with what a bitcoin is, people will just include it into their business and it will become a boring, steady backdrop to the worlds finances.

[Biro Bob]

I feel as if every single person who actively understands Bitcoin, sticks with it. Well from my experience at least.

This is an excellent quote. I discovered Bitcoin by accident as a friend wanted me to transfer money to him with Bitcoin instead of Paypal to avoid the fees. Since then, I have actively been using it, buying it and spending it. I even accept it on my web site www.artgalleriesdirect.com and wish more retailers would also adopt the convenience (and security) of accepting payments in Bitcoin.