Weekend dip myth, mid-month depression, month end rise. My take on it.

[EuroTrash]

Hi guys,
It's a rainy Sunday and I don't have much to do.
I have been watching this show for a while now, and I got to my own conclusions.
I am sharing them here for you to discuss.

DISCLAIMER
I am long bitcoin.

ASSUMPTIONS
Gox exchange rate drives the market. Other exchanges are followers.
Most actors in the orderbook are people who perceive a fiat salary at the end of each calendar month.


1. THE WEEKEND DIP MYTH
Gox prices always fall in the weekend. Why?
Because in the weekend there is no fiat coming in.
In every purchase some money is lost to Gox transaction fees.
So over time, with no new money coming in, the price has to drop.

BUT: Weekend dips were so punctual and predictable last year that some people started trying to take advantage of them - by selling on Friday afternoon and buying back in on Sunday morning. Hence the price now spikes on Sunday morning.

2. THE MID-MONTH DEPRESSION
Gox prices always consolidate or fall slightly around the middle of every calendar month. Why?
Because of small investors who bought bitcoins with part of their salary.
Some of them have to cash-out fiat to make it till the next payday.

3. THE MONTH END RISE
That's right after fiat payday, when people wire money to Gox and buy bitcoins.

What's your take? Critics and comments welcome  

[N12]

3. is interesting, but I don't think it is significant considering people only can part with some of their income and I don't see it being many people doing that. If you are up for it, you could simply mark it on a chart for a couple months and see.

About the "Weekend Dip Myth" thread that I created some time ago, I have to say that I've actually been believing in it the past few weeks/months. Particularly Tuesday has been "rally day" in my experience. Perhaps this works better in bull markets where we keep making new highs?

[arepo]

not very rigorous -- i would suggest including some quantification of how often these events actually happen, as well as more definitive bounds than "mid-month" and "months-end".

--arepo

[bitarrow]

not very rigorous -- i would suggest including some quantification of how often these events actually happen, as well as more definitive bounds than "mid-month" and "months-end".

--arepo

yes we need visual aids