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央行研究局局长:政府负债极有可能超出了债务警戒线
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央行研究局局长:政府负债极有可能超出了债务警戒线
May 02, 2017, 05:30:23 AM
#1
最近一段时间,防范金融风险、加强监管被提到了前所未有的高度。银证保三会连出重拳严防加杠杆炒作和交叉性风险,但伴随而来的压力和阵痛也让市场产生了担忧,有关金融去杠杆的节奏问题也在近期被反复讨论。
中国金融四十人论坛成员、央行研究局局长徐忠认为,对金融业的高杠杆,从策略上,要有序去杠杆,既要避免暴力去杠杆和缩表引发“债务-通缩”风险,又应在宏观政策和监管上保持对金融机构去杠杆的压力,促使其主动去杠杆。
徐忠还强调,我们需要高度警惕杠杆率水平在短期内的快速攀升。有研究表明,杠杆率上升速度而非杠杆率水平与危机关系更为紧密。因此,去杠杆必须抓住问题的本质,即寻找杠杆率在短期内迅速攀升的原因,着力实施破解杠杆率迅速升高的治本之策。
徐忠认为,如果没有解决国有企业公司治理问题,地方政府的财税软约束不能抑制其拼命扩大债务的动力,那么任何阶段的债务下降、任何方式的去杠杆都是解决不了问题的。
就去杠杆的标本兼治之策,徐忠认为:宏观上,货币政策保持稳健中性的同时,淡化经济增长目标;微观上,加强公司治理、规范中央与地方财税关系、优化金融监管、完善激励约束机制;策略上,保持战略定力,防系统性风险同时促金融机构主动去杠杆。
本文系徐忠在近期召开的北方新金融研究院(NFI)“‘去杠杆’与金融风险防范”闭门研讨会上所做的主题演讲,由作者本人整理
去杠杆的标本兼治之策
近年来我国债务杠杆率引起关注,主要表现在非金融企业杠杆率较高,且增长迅速;在非金融企业中,国有企业杠杆率较高,产能过剩行业杠杆率较高。居民部门和政府部门杠杆率近年来上升也较快。此外,金融业杠杆率上升的事实及潜在的风险未受到应有的重视。
从宏观上看,高杠杆率是在经济潜在增长率下滑的背景下政府过度刺激经济的结果;从微观上看,公司治理弱化、监管不到位、预算软约束等是企业、地方政府和金融机构杠杆率高的主要原因。
因此,在货币政策保持稳健中性的同时,应淡化经济增长的目标。微观上,加强公司治理、规范中央与地方财税关系、优化金融监管、完善激励约束机制才是去杠杆的有效措施,才可能从根本上有效化解高杠杆率的债务风险。对金融业的高杠杆,从策略上,要有序去杠杆,既要避免暴力去杠杆和缩表引发“债务-通缩”风险,又应在宏观政策和监管上保持对金融机构去杠杆的压力,促使其主动去杠杆。
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