MtGox Waiting List related to price

[Its About Sharing]

This has been a pretty interesting thing for me to consider. A few weeks ago the waiting list for account confirmations at MtGox was around 20-30,000. Now, there is no shorting of BTC's. So basically, those are new buyers. (I hope there never is shorting as that can be dangerous e.g. - see gold). Did they say they can process 1000 new accounts a day or something like that? I mean there is basically a 2 or 3 week waiting period.

Does anyone know where/what the latest queue for MtGox is?

There are around 11 million BTC shares outstanding right now, and if you understand stock markets even a little, that is NOTHING, especially for a currency. My idea on Bitcoin is pretty simple, if it really succeeds, you will just need 1. Think about that. 

I remember in a recent podcast that the CEO of MtGox basically said that incoming money is something like 17-20 times that of outgoing money. We also should weigh this into the equation. A picture is starting to be painted. And, when one considers that most people are still not in the know here and that VC money is starting to move in, uh oh...

There are of course many other factors to consider (e.g. - day traders, DDOS attacks (which are meaning less and less), etc.) regarding the price.

What are your thoughts on how that Queue, money flow, # of shares, VC money coming in, etc affects the price, considering that they are mostly buyers and that MtGox is still what, 70%-80% of the market?


IAS

[cypherdoc]

I think you're right.

I too would like to see the latest numbers.

[empoweoqwj]

The proof is in the pudding.

Like you, I would expect all this new money flowing in to increase the price, but to date, its clearly not happened.

I've a feeling a few people that can coordinate "flash crashes" have made a huge amount of money in the last few weeks, at the expense of noob account holders.

Love to think this won't continue but when there is such cash to be made, further attempts are inevitable. Will they succeed? Look at the price at the end of May and decide then. This new money should be pushing the price up to $200-$300. If it isn't, we will know the flash crashers are still making a mint. People won't keep pouring money into a market if they keep getting hit. Bad news spreads much more quickly than good news. bitcoins will get a reputation for being a scam asset. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen.

[Birdy]

This was also what I thought, when I bought my coins (not that long ago), still not happening though.
But we also have to consider that you aren't able to start with your account activated, first you have to get money there.
That will take some time again.
I'm not using Mt. Gox, but on Bitcoin Central you had to wait another 3+ days for your money to arrive.

[Its About Sharing]

empoweoqwj - Can we really say the price is not increasing? The big DDOS attack that brought (at least in part) the price from 260 to 50 in a day has been the only one to date that has really been substantial. Since that time ($50) we have moved back up to $135. Looking at the year as a whole, we are clearly in an uptrend. I think you are confusing a steady price rise with a volatile one. Without a doubt the BTC price instability is just as much connected to currency sentiment than it is BTC sentiment, supply/demand, etc.

Further, the DDOS attack are not having the same effect. That is clear. The last few really caused nothing. I'm sure something new is on the horizon but we need to be tested. Even though the thread is talking about price, it is not the end all here. BTC adoption is and that is happening. There are so many projects going on that this bad boy is going to sneak up on people just like the internet did. Our own Black Swan.

Also, DDOS attacks might not have made people money the way we were told. When do those that do them buy back in? When it was at 260 and went down to 150, do they get back in then? It dropped another 100 bucks the next day. I just think the DDOS attacks are too dangerous to consistently make money from.

Anyone have that MtGox waiting list time?

IAS

[Hawker]

 Your Position in the Verification Queue 15140

The backlog is down to 15k.  It looks like they are making fast progress.

[Frozenlock]

There's no relation between the waiting list and the price.

If I just wired $10k to MtGox and the price is tanking, I will wait before doing anything.
You could have millions of dollars in MtGox and the price could still go to $10.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

You need to get verified in order to withdraw more than $1000 per day or more than $10,000 per month, so this is not all people wanting to buy.

[Inedible]

I've been trying to build some info on the waiting list but getting info from people has been like getting blood from a desert baked stone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170068.0

Your Position in the Verification Queue 15140

The backlog is down to 15k.  It looks like they are making fast progress.

Do you have a time for this value?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I recall it was around 15,000-17,000 a few days ago, too.

[NamelessOne]

The proof is in the pudding.

Like you, I would expect all this new money flowing in to increase the price, but to date, its clearly not happened.

I've a feeling a few people that can coordinate "flash crashes" have made a huge amount of money in the last few weeks, at the expense of noob account holders.

Love to think this won't continue but when there is such cash to be made, further attempts are inevitable. Will they succeed? Look at the price at the end of May and decide then. This new money should be pushing the price up to $200-$300. If it isn't, we will know the flash crashers are still making a mint. People won't keep pouring money into a market if they keep getting hit. Bad news spreads much more quickly than good news. bitcoins will get a reputation for being a scam asset. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen.

'To date its clearly not happened' ? So the climb up to 266 didn't happen? And then an incredible climb from 50 to 166 didn't happen? A climb that happened so quickly we needed a rather strong and healthy correction to the 120s to test support twice. The price has clearly been increasing. We haven't made new all time highs yet, but those don't happen every day, especially after some large corrections.

[Luckybit]

This has been a pretty interesting thing for me to consider. A few weeks ago the waiting list for account confirmations at MtGox was around 20-30,000. Now, there is no shorting of BTC's. So basically, those are new buyers. (I hope there never is shorting as that can be dangerous e.g. - see gold). Did they say they can process 1000 new accounts a day or something like that? I mean there is basically a 2 or 3 week waiting period.

Does anyone know where/what the latest queue for MtGox is?

There are around 11 million BTC shares outstanding right now, and if you understand stock markets even a little, that is NOTHING, especially for a currency. My idea on Bitcoin is pretty simple, if it really succeeds, you will just need 1. Think about that. 

I remember in a recent podcast that the CEO of MtGox basically said that incoming money is something like 17-20 times that of outgoing money. We also should weigh this into the equation. A picture is starting to be painted. And, when one considers that most people are still not in the know here and that VC money is starting to move in, uh oh...

There are of course many other factors to consider (e.g. - day traders, DDOS attacks (which are meaning less and less), etc.) regarding the price.

What are your thoughts on how that Queue, money flow, # of shares, VC money coming in, etc affects the price, considering that they are mostly buyers and that MtGox is still what, 70%-80% of the market?


IAS

If it succeeds and 1 coin is worth $100,000-700,000 that could be 5-10 years from now.

People who have hundreds of coins? They are all set. People who have 40-50? They'll be millionaires too. People who have 1? You'll be able to retire. So yeah it's good for anyone if what you say is true but that is precisely why it will never happen.

[empoweoqwj]

The proof is in the pudding.

Like you, I would expect all this new money flowing in to increase the price, but to date, its clearly not happened.

I've a feeling a few people that can coordinate "flash crashes" have made a huge amount of money in the last few weeks, at the expense of noob account holders.

Love to think this won't continue but when there is such cash to be made, further attempts are inevitable. Will they succeed? Look at the price at the end of May and decide then. This new money should be pushing the price up to $200-$300. If it isn't, we will know the flash crashers are still making a mint. People won't keep pouring money into a market if they keep getting hit. Bad news spreads much more quickly than good news. bitcoins will get a reputation for being a scam asset. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen.

"To date it its clearly not happened" ? So the climb up to 266 didn't happen? And then an incredible climb from 50 to 166 didn't happen? A climb that happened so quickly we needed a rather strong and healthy correction to the 120s to test support twice. The price has clearly been increasing. We haven't made new all time highs yet, but those don't happen every day, especially after some large corrections.

Yeah, 266 happened. For a few hours. And all those noobs with new accounts, that bought in at $150 to $266, how would they be feeling?

266 to 50 isn't a correction. Its a huge crash, which was not news driven. Bitcoin news has been nearly all positive in April. And clearly there was lots of new money coming into exchanges in April.

So it was market manipulation, plain and simple. DDoS events don't happen by accident.

Flash crashes are not good for bitcoins. The price volatility stops a lot of good things happening, dents confidence in this whole "experiment". I know loads of good technology people that would get involved with the bitcoin revolution but they still see it as the "wild wild west". Let's hope we've seen the last flash crash, and bitcoins will move to a whole new level.

[seleme]

I have mtgox account for 2 years and applied for verification on Thursday.

[Its About Sharing]

There's no relation between the waiting list and the price.

If I just wired $10k to MtGox and the price is tanking, I will wait before doing anything.
You could have millions of dollars in MtGox and the price could still go to $10.

Think about what you are saying here. MtGox does 70%-80% of the BTC trades and has a 2-3 week waiting list. The run-up in price perfectly coincides with the waiting list really starting (that is not to say it is everything, but it is something we must look at.)

Now, I'm not saying the waiting list is the price of BTC or even that it is the main factor in it - clearly there is BTCe and a host of other exchanges, but how can you say there is not link given the obvious factors and correlations? They are obviously linked, the question is just how much.

Now, of course if the price is tanking your 10k is probably going to be carefully injected into the market by you. But the volatility is a part of the game, the key is calling the bottom, looking for an uptrend, etc. So, when you have $10k and the high is $260 just a couple of weeks ago and is now at $130, there are only 11 million outstanding shares (now), currencies around the world are either collapsing or getting closer and closer to collapsing, gold is being suppressed in a variety of ways by the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank), etc. and on and on - It is pretty clear you are not going to want to wait too long as we are in an acceleration phase of something here on planet earth. That is why BTC is here the way it is now. You can see it and feel it, but being that we are within it (the eye of the hurricane) and that information is still largely controlled, it is sometimes hard to see the obvious. They tried to hide the information from us in a variety of ways (e.g. - highly manipulated stock market price, lower prices of precious metals, false unemployment numbers, etc.)

I am not trying to sound strong here, please don't take it as such. But we are at a very special time in human history.

It's About Sharing

[Its About Sharing]

The proof is in the pudding.

Like you, I would expect all this new money flowing in to increase the price, but to date, its clearly not happened.

I've a feeling a few people that can coordinate "flash crashes" have made a huge amount of money in the last few weeks, at the expense of noob account holders.

Love to think this won't continue but when there is such cash to be made, further attempts are inevitable. Will they succeed? Look at the price at the end of May and decide then. This new money should be pushing the price up to $200-$300. If it isn't, we will know the flash crashers are still making a mint. People won't keep pouring money into a market if they keep getting hit. Bad news spreads much more quickly than good news. bitcoins will get a reputation for being a scam asset. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen.

"To date it its clearly not happened" ? So the climb up to 266 didn't happen? And then an incredible climb from 50 to 166 didn't happen? A climb that happened so quickly we needed a rather strong and healthy correction to the 120s to test support twice. The price has clearly been increasing. We haven't made new all time highs yet, but those don't happen every day, especially after some large corrections.

Yeah, 266 happened. For a few hours. And all those noobs with new accounts, that bought in at $150 to $266, how would they be feeling?

266 to 50 isn't a correction. Its a huge crash, which was not news driven. Bitcoin news has been nearly all positive in April. And clearly there was lots of new money coming into exchanges in April.

So it was market manipulation, plain and simple. DDoS events don't happen by accident.

Flash crashes are not good for bitcoins. The price volatility stops a lot of good things happening, dents confidence in this whole "experiment". I know loads of good technology people that would get involved with the bitcoin revolution but they still see it as the "wild wild west". Let's hope we've seen the last flash crash, and bitcoins will move to a whole new level.

Do you know how to read a chart? I traded professionally for years. Look at the volume of those big down days. (low). Now look at the volume of those two days where we spiked down to 50ish, the day after the 2nd down day and then 4 days later. Both formed huge "hammers" in candlestick charts on very high volume. We ate right through that resistance like butter (coming back up to where we are now). What I'm saying as a technician, that the road back to 260 is NOTHING. The large resistance is behind us. We probably have to form a base first. We are sitting on support. Though, even though we can use technical analysis with the charts, BTC is not exactly a stock, currency, commodity, etc. (not to mention the world state.)

266 to 50 was DDOS driven, throw in thousands of micro trades and fear and panic. The DDOS successes seem to be passing quickly.

Bitcoin is an anti-fragile technology and you can see it adjusting and becoming stronger.

The volatility describes the state of the world economies and the world more than it describes bitcoin. If you don't believe that ask yourself this simple question "If things were good and our currencies were strong, what interest would people have in bitcoin?"   I say it would be next to nothing, quite obviously. Bitcoin is a sign of the times.

[wobber]

I am also curious:

Is there any approximation on the number of bitcoin users?

Is there any approximation on the average quantity of BTC those users have? I mean, i can see 11 million but for me it seem just 2-3M are traded and transactioned. Also I assume 1M is lost in the days back.

And how can I see top 100 wallets?

[nrd525]

You can short BTC. And the way you'd probably do it is to first buy BTC and then transfer the BTC to a place like bitfinex or icbit, convert immediately into US dollars and then short.

[xavier]

Bitcoin has a VERY long way to go before it succeeds. Lets remember that first and foremost it is an experiment and that most experiments eventually fail. However they also lead to greater things.

Also whilst we're on the subject, I suspect there is a lot of exaggeration at MtGox about the number of accounts that are supposedly outstanding.

[smoothie]

Bitcoin has a VERY long way to go before it succeeds. Lets remember that first and foremost it is an experiment and that most experiments eventually fail. However they also lead to greater things.

Also whilst we're on the subject, I suspect there is a lot of exaggeration at MtGox about the number of accounts that are supposedly outstanding.

If they were claiming millions of accounts backlogged then okay they are likely exaggerating.

10,000 to 20,000? pfft that is barely a small town.