How really big is the $120 wall?

[AmazonStuff]

During last couple of days, I listened to opinions of other people on Speculation board and also I did my own research. Even well know analysts have completely different opinion what will happen at the start of next week, some say it will be Black Monday, other say it will be Rally Tuesday.

Where is the truth?

No one knows...

BTC market is currently in downtrend, only obstacle on it's way down is a wall at $120. One of the main arguments and main reason why some of the analysts are bullish is $120 wall, they say it's too big and that we will bounce up.

But let's ask ourselves how really big is that wall?

His current height is BTC 27 260... Is that tall enough?

Now take a look at those daily volumes and tell my what you think?

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[NamelessOne]

The market has climbed from $50 to $160ish, I wouldn't call that a downtrend. Did we correct from the way too fast climb from 120s to 160s? Yes indeed we did. And now we have tested it twice and it has displayed strong support. I try not to be a super bull or bear, I lean bullish but I try to remain sane, but I'm positive the drop from 266 was a correction, a much needed one. We could very well be looking at a situation like last August. Dropped a lot, but gradually just continued climbing. I hope I'm right! 

[Kazu]

So, at one price, there is a wall thats about the size of an entire day of trading? You're trying to tell me that this isn't big? In order to overcome that, we'd need a day with a good amount of volume with just sells and no buys whatsoever.

[AmazonStuff]

So, at one price, there is a wall thats about the size of an entire day of trading? You're trying to tell me that this isn't big? In order to overcome that, we'd need a day with a good amount of volume with just sells and no buys whatsoever.

No, I just noticed that since $266 bubble, it's almost completely normal to have BTC 175 000 daily volume. Take a look at that April 16 monster, it's BTC 572 185.69 tall...

[BitcoinAshley]

Are we in a downtrend? IDK, the SMA (30d) isn't telling me that yet, even short-term.

If we dip below $127 and stay there for more than a few days I'll start getting worried, but only about the coming month or two, not the coming 10 years.
 
We got pretty close but then a green candle came and saved the day. We are still close. Fasten your seatbelts!

My prediction: Bitcoin price will either go up or down, in exactly 3 days.
 

[Kazu]

And yesterday's was half the size of the wall.

It depends. ON an insane day yes there is enough volume. But remember, that would require absolutely no buy orders to be put in through the course of the day. And there is also a psychological aspect, just like how bulls can be intimidated by a wall several million dollars high, its not fun to sell into a wall that shows no sign of budging as it looks like you are practically guaranteeing that you are selling at the lows of the day. Buyers are likely to add to the wall when we get close to it.

The only situations in which I can realistically see us going below $120 is if a lot of those buy orders turned out to be "fake" and were revoked when we got there. Either that, or the price keeps on going up, and some of the bulls revoke their buy orders at $120 and put in buy orders at higher values spreading themselves too thin and causing a major correction to sub-$120 levels when a crash happens and the wall suddenly turns up missing. Neither of these scenarios are altogether unlikely, but the chances of legitimately eating through that entire wall is close to 0.

[ManBearPig]

Firstly I would disagree that the market is on a down-trend, you would have to pick your start point very specifically to within a 10-day period out of over 1,000 to see a definite decline to the present price.

My view is that we are on a cautious uptrend, replacing the previous exuberant uptrend and interrupted by a 7-day correction compounded by a DDoS.

[AmazonStuff]

Firstly I would disagree that the market is on a down-trend, you would have to pick your start point very specifically to within a 10-day period out of over 1,000 to see a definite decline to the present price.

My view is that we are on a cautious uptrend, replacing the previous exuberant uptrend and interrupted by a 7-day correction compounded by a DDoS.

It's really hard to determine uptrend/downtrend, here within 1-month period it seems that we are nowhere, stucked in the middle.

[Miz4r]

The $120 support is much bigger than what it says on the order book. It says ~30k BTC right now but you're not counting the people who will react dynamically when they see the price going down to a point where they are willing to buy. Not everyone sets their limit orders in advance, a lot of people make their bye/sell decision in real time.

[awakening]

The $120 support is much bigger than what it says on the order book. It says ~30k BTC right now but you're not counting the people who will react dynamically when they see the price going down to a point where they are willing to buy. Not everyone sets their limit orders in advance, a lot of people make their bye/sell decision in real time.

The same to the ones that pull the order waiting for the price to dip deeper.

[Miz4r]

The same to the ones that pull the order waiting for the price to dip deeper.

Depends on whether they think the price is going to bounce off 120 again or not. It bounced twice before so I think they're less likely to pull and miss the rebound for a nice profit, unless the selling pressure is overwhelming. I'm letting my bid order sit there until I'm convinced 120 will not hold, then sell asap and pick it up at new bottom again. Should still net me a nice profit if I'm paying attention. But most of my cards are on the price going up again this week and no retest of 120. It's going to be interesting either way.