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金管局:我国今年经济增长跟去年无显著区别
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Topic: 金管局:我国今年经济增长跟去年无显著区别 (Read 144 times)
Deniselly
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金管局:我国今年经济增长跟去年无显著区别
May 03, 2017, 11:35:33 AM
#1
全球经济过去六个月来虽已复苏,下来也会继续支持我国贸易相关行业,但国内更广泛经济的活动却可能增长不均衡。
我国今年经济增长预料维持平缓,处于1%和3%之间,跟去年2%增长不会有显著区别。
新加坡金融管理局发布半年一度的宏观经济报告,对我国的经济展望做出了上述评价,并解释了本月维持货币政策背后的考量。
金管局指出,全球经济增长步伐近几个月加快,主要推动力来自美国和中国的增长势头,以及欧元区和日本的稳步扩张。
从支出角度来看,G3经济(美国、日本和欧盟)的消费与投资都处于增长中,而亚洲(日本除外)的外部需求也形成经济增长动力。此外,全球层面的制造业产值、贸易流量和企业盈利都有所改善。
在全球经济好转的背景下,金管局认为,我国贸易相关领域业务会支持整体经济增长。其中,全球资讯科技周期性回升会让国内的半导体和精密工程业获益。但制造业其他领域的表现却会参差不齐。
金管局说:“全球资讯科技周期性增长强于预期,会带动亚洲区域的电子产品生产,并可能进一步提高区域内贸易。而且,美国资本支出的上扬迹象,包括资讯科技产片,也会提高对电子产品和部件的终端需求。”
它也指出,各项指标就显示资讯科技的复苏可持续下去,部分原因是手机功能更复杂化,提振市场对高价值半导体的需求。
更重要的是,我国在全球半导体价值链的角色也转变,从侧重生产逐步转向了生产前期的知识密集研发工作,以及生产后期的物流、销售和售后维修与服务等工作。
昨天的最新制造业数据显示,3月份月制造业产值同比增10.2%,表现优于经济师预料。一些经济师认为,我国第一季经济增长有望从2.5%上调至2.7%或以上。
在服务行业方面,金管局预计今年现代服务业集群增长步伐会加快,主要由金融领域增长和和资讯通信科技服务的强劲需求所带动。医疗保健和教育服务业的稳定需求也会支持它们的增长。
不过国内市场为导向的行业如零售业和餐饮业,金管局预计它们今年表现疲弱,这主要是受到疲软劳动力市场的消费者情绪所影响。
金管局本月中宣布维持让新元零升值的货币政策,意即新元名义有效汇率的可波动范围、中心点和斜度都维持不变。
它说,维持中美丽货币政策是适当的,可在较长时期内确保中期价格稳定。
物价方面,金管局预计,能源相关因素会是促使通胀率上扬的主要动力,全球油价预料会高于去年。停车费和垃圾收集费用去年12月开始上调,以及下来水费和杂费预计上扬,都会使到通胀率短期增加。
我国整体通胀率今年首两个月为0.6%。比去年第四季的零增长来得高,今年预计为0.5%至1.5%。
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