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Author Topic: My decision on the two group buys of iBelink DM11g-10800mhs .  (Read 1235 times)
philipma1957
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May 03, 2017, 08:37:51 PM
 #1

I made this decision  purely on ROI math.

both buys have the same 90 wait from purchase to shipping.

I did multiple ROI estimates on the 5700 and  the 6750  group buys.

I was asked by bittawm and later kilo17 about assisting the group buys.

This post and thread is not about the character of either bottom to kilo17.

For the record I believe they can be trusted .

Here is a quick write up of why

I WILL NOT ESCROW OR BE INVOLVED WITH EITHER GROUP BUY
 
The 90 day wait from payment to shipping is far too long. --- Single biggest reason I do not like either deal.
Since I sometimes sell gear I will not sell any gear on forum for 90 days as this opinion  is not to justify buying used gpus from me

The breakdown is posted here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1877588.180


I am doing  a purely mathematical comparison of the two deals from the two of them against  buying and building a zec ming farm with 1080ti's.

I know both guys fairly well and have like both of them. So I won't pass judgement on whether on person is better then the other.

But I can crunch the numbers  and see if spending 6k  to build a zec farm  works better then either deal.

I will present this in a separate thread. Later today.

This is exactly what I've done, I found that 2x ZEC Miners I could build would make the money back in the time it takes to even ship those miners. It's highly unlikely I'll buy one of them at this point, too much risk because if they do what bitmain did and turn them on after they receive them for testing, cause the hash/difficulty spike and THEN ship them out. Batch 1 owners would get screwed.

I spent part of last night and all day today crunching numbers.
kilo17 deal is cheaper then bittawm

bottom line both deals are bad.

purely on math .

I assume both deals are honest
I assume you get the gear 90 days to the day after payment.
I assume dash goes 2x price to match 2x diff increase.

lets say you do one from each cause you like both guys.  In my case a really do like both people.

easy numbers are 5700 + 6700 = 12400  average price would be 6200.

what can I do with 6200  right now today.

here is what I can do.  I can buy

six of these  at 676 each or 4056  I would get 1% off in the form of ebucks.  so net is 4016  use paypal six months to pay

http://www.ebay.com/itm/ZOTAC-ZT-P10810A-10P-GeForce-GTX-1080-Ti-Founders-Edition-11GB-GDDR5X-352-bit-/172587640269?

a mobo, risers, ssd ,ram ,cpu, psu = 384 high number on purpose   so  I spend 4400 after ebucks and have 6 months to pay this.

I also have 1800 left over So I buy dash 20 coins.

So I have a 6 card 1080 ti miner   doing about 4200h of zec pulling  say  1400 watts.  that is 34 kwatts a day or about 3.40 usd in power.  and earnings are about 33.33 usd

so fast forward 90 days.

I spent 306 in power and earned 3000  which is a net of 2694 .

if dash did 2x in price the 1800 or 20 coins is now  3600 a gain of 1800

the paypal bill is not due until 180 days.  it was for 4400

 4400
-2694
______
1706 still owe
3600 since dash did double in price
____
1894 ahead.  in 90 days if dash does double.

in all cases that dash rises in price  I make some money since  I purchased 1800 in  coins of the seed money of 6200.

at 90 days  with group buy I might have the working unit.

If dash dropped in price  and diff did 2x I am dead basically zero chance of break even.

If dash dropped in price  and I do the gpu build and some dash coins.  I have 20 coins even if they went from 90 to 45  that is still 900 usd.

and I still have the 6 card gpu rig.  that I don't have to pay any of the 4400 I owe for another 90 days.

So how can I advise anyone that either group buy makes sense.  when the 4400 gpu rig 1800 dash coin deal is far safer?  the answer is I have to say no to either group buy.  since the gpu rig + coin purchase truly seems to be better.  With income stream starting asap.  vs waiting 90 days for income to come in.


IN   Every case I can come up with   I simply do not see the reward for the risk's asked in either group buy.


I do not see many scenario's where these groups  if fully successful.  Are better then building a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig  for about 4400-4425 usd and buying 20 coins of dash at 90 each for 1800  this totals    6225   which is the average  price of the two group buys.

Even if you just use the lower number of 5700 offered by kilo17   the deal is not as good as buying coins and build a six card nvidia 1080 ti rig.

So for me to escort or push either group I do not see that I should do this.

these group buys will 2x  the diff  if they go through = fact
dash would need to 2x its price for deal to stand a chance.

even if seller/builder delivers on aug 2 and dash is 2x the current price the dealer has said they will sell more gear.  So I am not going to escrow either deal.

I have done this I have cancelled 2 Avalon 6 deals  due to the prices not working.

It is not in my power to do anything about either deal other then to say

A) I will not escrow them
B) I will not buy in to them
C) 87-97 days to wait is too long.
D) I trust kilo17, I trust bitawm
E) I do not want  to escrow either deal

F) The 2x the diff with sale of this item. seems real as the sunrise

My choice will be building some  more rigs  for zec very soon.


@ bitawm
@ kilo17

I would not do the deals  90 risk  of waiting.

And if it all works out what stops builder from doing a super big  batch making all the batch 1 gear drop like a rock.

think gridseed blades.


My cavat  I was fully wrong about buying the balki gear back in January .


If I am wrong here  dash is going to 2x or 3x price. just buy some coins now.

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philipma1957
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May 03, 2017, 08:39:54 PM
 #2

Note Left this open for comments. without  mod privileges .  So feel free to write what you all will.

If I get pm's on this  from any and all you are agreeing that I can quote them in this thread.

As  mining community with small rigs and big farms  all able to post here please feel free to post.

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May 03, 2017, 09:50:02 PM
 #3

Thanks for your take phill

BTC:1B3GN2WRQ6LBk9PcuZxoXevhty8sTgVrxn  <-------ONLY DEPOSIT TO THIS ADDRESS
SELLING D3S FOR 0.6 BITCOIN INCLUDING SHIPPING AND PSU
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May 03, 2017, 10:17:51 PM
 #4

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***
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May 03, 2017, 10:32:16 PM
 #5

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***

I'm interested in anyone's input on this as well. I agree with Phil's math for sure, but what if you were able to extend that model to a year from now? The iBelink definitely seems more profitable, so the question is, given enough time, would it surpass total profit of Phil's zec rig? I'm not sure if anyone can predict that... Seems like a classic higher-risk higher-reward scenario. Very difficult to weigh the two.
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May 03, 2017, 10:42:42 PM
 #6

Another point to take into consideration is that we have NO proof this miner has worked 1 month or 2 month mining at 10ghs.
Just yesterday it was down to 7ghs for most part of the day until they turn it off and hasn't been online yet and the current data pool only showed it had been working for 3 days.

By the time this machines are done the manufactory will probably mine the shit out of them for a few days and will drive the difficult so high that you won't be making not even near what those calculators are telling you toda. I agree 100% with phill, better to put your money on zec and eth miners than risking buying this.
I'm out..
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May 03, 2017, 10:59:10 PM
 #7

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***

I'm interested in anyone's input on this as well. I agree with Phil's math for sure, but what if you were able to extend that model to a year from now? The iBelink definitely seems more profitable, so the question is, given enough time, would it surpass total profit of Phil's zec rig? I'm not sure if anyone can predict that... Seems like a classic higher-risk higher-reward scenario. Very difficult to weigh the two.

Remember part of the alternate investment includes 20 coins of dash.

So if dash moves up huge you have 20 coins.
Let's also remember you can buy a later batch.
Which may be low cost not higher cost.

I see higher risk I struggle to see higher reward.

1 year real warranty for the gpu rig at worst. 90 day warranty with ASIC = higher risk.

I guess you can argue every gpu coin crashes on day 100 and dash whales on day 100.

And even though you make out some what with. The twenty hedge  coins the miner ultimately mines 45 coins.

But heck getting the gpu miner working by this Friday and having twenty dash in your wallet is a huge heAd start over buying the ASIC.

90 days of hope to getting the gear is tough.

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May 03, 2017, 11:16:05 PM
 #8

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***

I'm interested in anyone's input on this as well. I agree with Phil's math for sure, but what if you were able to extend that model to a year from now? The iBelink definitely seems more profitable, so the question is, given enough time, would it surpass total profit of Phil's zec rig? I'm not sure if anyone can predict that... Seems like a classic higher-risk higher-reward scenario. Very difficult to weigh the two.

The amount of hashrate for the ibelink could be somewhat compared to the hashrate jump from an Antminer S3 to an Antminer S7, you can review the history of the difficulty to see what happened on the BTC side. If Dash's value increase, it may be worth while but if the value stays around where it is right now and difficulty spikes, people are going to lose a lot of money or spend years trying to make it back. I would say there is significantly less risk in just buying $6k of dash right now and letting it ride until after these things get released. If the price of Dash goes up, you're going to make way more profit than you would have buying the miner and then trying to ROI + Profit from the device.

All the calculators out there today say that 1 of these things in the world will ROI in about 27 days and make near $100k annually. Imagine 3.2TH worth of these things on the network, there is no way they will all make 100K anually a piece. Hell it would be amazing if they all ROI'd in 27 days but will the batch one owners really ROI before the difficulty spikes? Highly unlikely but who knows? Maybe. However, what I do know is if we see another L3+ event where the manufacturer turns them all on and starts mining with them for testing prior to shipping, the owners will never receive them until after the difficulty spike.

The only beneficiary I see here from the mass production of this miner in this much quantity in the span of 3 months, is the manufacturer of the miner. The buyers may likely spend years trying to ROI these things. If the manufacturer doesn't deliver the product on time or they deliver a product with a high failure rate, the equation gets even worse.
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May 03, 2017, 11:24:11 PM
 #9

ZEC is crazy profitable right now but if you're a seasoned miner you know that you can't build on it for a long time, not even for 3 months.

But then again the 10800 Mhs X11 miner is even better, in fact it's a ridiculously profitable miner with a whole lot of smoke and mirrors surrounding it.

In fact, it's so profitable that currently it would only take 20 days to reach ROI, using the average, $6200 price. As I said before, let's just think for a second and ask who would sell such a crazy profitable miner instead of using them?

The answer is no sane person.

No self respecting miner I have spoken to even remotely considering buying one. A couple of promises and videos are not proof in this day and age and then there are the other red flags...
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May 03, 2017, 11:25:46 PM
 #10

I appreciate Phil's input. However he didn't seem to include the following numbers

The 4200sol/s he calculated from the zec rig would make about $40usd per day at current profitability.

the ibelink, at just 10ghs would make like over about $270 per day at current profitability...

I understand the profitabilities change and especially over a 90 day period while waiting for shipping. I also understand the difficulty will go up a lot with the increased dash network hashrate.. Phil used a doubling in the network difficulty but lets say it tripled (can we actually calculate how high the difficulty and profitibilty will change?) thats still 270/3 = $90usd a day

he brought up other valid points like the risks involved but i just wanted to throw out these possible numbers


I'm now questioning whether i'm even interested in the preorder anymore... ***is it possible to calculate how much the difficulty and therefore the profitability of dash (at current dash/btc value) will be affected by the 3000 or so 10k+ ghs ibelink miners?***

I'm interested in anyone's input on this as well. I agree with Phil's math for sure, but what if you were able to extend that model to a year from now? The iBelink definitely seems more profitable, so the question is, given enough time, would it surpass total profit of Phil's zec rig? I'm not sure if anyone can predict that... Seems like a classic higher-risk higher-reward scenario. Very difficult to weigh the two.

The amount of hashrate for the ibelink could be somewhat compared to the hashrate jump from an Antminer S3 to an Antminer S7, you can review the history of the difficulty to see what happened on the BTC side. If Dash's value increase, it may be worth while but if the value stays around where it is right now and difficulty spikes, people are going to lose a lot of money or spend years trying to make it back. I would say there is significantly less risk in just buying $6k of dash right now and letting it ride until after these things get released. If the price of Dash goes up, you're going to make way more profit than you would have buying the miner and then trying to ROI + Profit from the device.

All the calculators out there today say that 1 of these things in the world will ROI in about 27 days and make near $100k annually. Imagine 3.2TH worth of these things on the network, there is no way they will all make 100K anually a piece. Hell it would be amazing if they all ROI'd in 27 days but will the batch one owners really ROI before the difficulty spikes? Highly unlikely but who knows? Maybe. However, what I do know is if we see another L3+ event where the manufacturer turns them all on and starts mining with them for testing prior to shipping, the owners will never receive them until after the difficulty spike.

The only beneficiary I see here from the mass production of this miner in this much quantity in the span of 3 months, is the manufacturer of the miner. The buyers may likely spend years trying to ROI these things. If the manufacturer doesn't deliver the product on time or they deliver a product with a high failure rate, the equation gets even worse.


That's the thing with these things, the manufacturer has no risk in this.

Buying one of these things is crazy considering you're going against large groups buying 100, your ROI on 1 when they have 100 will take alot more than 27 days
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May 03, 2017, 11:29:18 PM
 #11

ZEC is crazy profitable right now but if you're a seasoned miner you know that you can't build on it for a long time, not even for 3 months.

But then again the 10800 Mhs X11 miner is even better, in fact it's a ridiculously profitable miner with a whole lot of smoke and mirrors surrounding it.

In fact, it's so profitable that currently it would only take 20 days to reach ROI, using the average, $6200 price. As I said before, let's just think for a second and ask who would sell such a crazy profitable miner instead of using them?

The answer is no sane person.

No self respecting miner I have spoken to even remotely considering buying one. A couple of promises and videos are not proof in this day and age and then there are the other red flags...

but as weird as it may seem Zec has a market cap of 100 mill 

and dash has a market cap of 600 mill

so pumping or supporting zec  is 6x less expensive then pumping or supporting dash.

I know  in ten days I could look like a moron about zec but there are eth xmr skein and others.

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May 03, 2017, 11:32:43 PM
 #12

Another point to take into consideration is that we have NO proof this miner has worked 1 month or 2 month mining at 10ghs.

In my opinion there is inadequate proof that it really exists.  That may change very soon if it really does exist but so far I am unconvinced.

No self respecting miner I have spoken to even remotely considering buying one. A couple of promises and videos are not proof in this day and age and then there are the other red flags...

+1 times 5000 dollars (or $6700 or whatever)

There is a very scam like element to the whole 2 and 3 day deadline business.  It is true that like the first avalons, those who are willing to take the biggest risk could potentially see the biggest reward, but seriously, the cryptocurrency space history is just littered with scams. 

I'm a fan of self control, but only in moderation.
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May 03, 2017, 11:41:53 PM
 #13

I want to be clear for all those considering their options as heavily as I have been.

I WANT ONE of these iBelink miners but I'm not in a position financially to risk that much cash right now with no guarantee of a return. It's just too high risk when you consider the history of what happens when you suddenly throw that much hash rate at a network.

Do I think these will be profitable?
-Yes

Do I have any reason to believe the manufacturer will not deliver these?
-No but we've seen history from other manufacturers that indicates otherwise.

Do I think they will have this much of a price premium by Batch 2?
-NOPE

Will I buy a Batch 2 miner?
-If Dash takes off and the premium price of this miner comes down according to where the difficulty levels out to, probably.

This iBelink miner release on the horizon is like getting a tip on a horse race that is a "sure thing"

...sadly there is nothing that is a "sure thing" in this world.

Will I miss the X11 boat and be kicking myself in the ass later for it?
-Maybe

Will I dodge a huge bullet that may cripple multiple large investors and leave a huge dent in the crypto world?
-Maybe

There are people in this world that just have faith that shit will work out, I don't have faith. I plan and strategize.

In Summary, I'm going to grab my popcorn and watch what happens. I hope for nothing but the best for all those willing to take that leap of faith on one or more of these.
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May 04, 2017, 12:10:56 AM
 #14

I want to be clear for all those considering their options as heavily as I have been.

I WANT ONE of these iBelink miners but I'm not in a position financially to risk that much cash right now with no guarantee of a return. It's just too high risk when you consider the history of what happens when you suddenly throw that much hash rate at a network.

Do I think these will be profitable?
-Yes

Do I have any reason to believe the manufacturer will not deliver these?
-No but we've seen history from other manufacturers that indicates otherwise.

Do I think they will have this much of a price premium by Batch 2?
-NOPE

Will I buy a Batch 2 miner?
-If Dash takes off and the premium price of this miner comes down according to where the difficulty levels out to, probably.

This iBelink miner release on the horizon is like getting a tip on a horse race that is a "sure thing"

...sadly there is nothing that is a "sure thing" in this world.

Will I miss the X11 boat and be kicking myself in the ass later for it?
-Maybe

Will I dodge a huge bullet that may cripple multiple large investors and leave a huge dent in the crypto world?
-Maybe

There are people in this world that just have faith that shit will work out, I don't have faith. I plan and strategize.

In Summary, I'm going to grab my popcorn and watch what happens. I hope for nothing but the best for all those willing to take that leap of faith on one or more of these.

I replaced an 1060 with an 1080 ti and sat it out.

and I stood to make 5000 usd in risk free escrow.

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May 04, 2017, 12:23:57 AM
 #15

Hey Phil,

Can you put 7 1080 ti on one motherboard like you can the rx470 & rx480?
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May 04, 2017, 01:02:25 AM
 #16

Hey Phil,

Can you put 7 1080 ti on one motherboard like you can the rx470 & rx480?

?  I have zero idea and have not tried since I have 8 mobos and only 15 cards at the moment.  I have not tried.

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May 04, 2017, 01:10:56 AM
 #17

I did not know that the other Group had asked you to Escrow, had I known I would not have asked and put you in that position.  For that I apologize.

I do not disagree with Phi on  what is a better investment using the numbers as he uses them.  The difference in the members in our "Group" of guys is that we all have pretty sizable farms each running 100-500+ GPU's, LTC gear, X11 gear and Bitcoin gear.  We make the decision based on a number of items like making sure our gear is current or making sure we have a wide array of different algorithms covered. Essentially making sure we have diversity.

I think everyones situation is different and their risk tolerance is also different.

Having said that, I also think that the possible bad scenarios in a Group Buy for UNKNOWN and PRE-SALE items increases and compounds the problem and can create a very bad situation if things do not work out as planned.


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May 04, 2017, 10:16:51 AM
 #18

I want to be clear for all those considering their options as heavily as I have been.

I WANT ONE of these iBelink miners but I'm not in a position financially to risk that much cash right now with no guarantee of a return. It's just too high risk when you consider the history of what happens when you suddenly throw that much hash rate at a network.

Do I think these will be profitable?
-Yes

Do I have any reason to believe the manufacturer will not deliver these?
-No but we've seen history from other manufacturers that indicates otherwise.

Do I think they will have this much of a price premium by Batch 2?
-NOPE

Will I buy a Batch 2 miner?
-If Dash takes off and the premium price of this miner comes down according to where the difficulty levels out to, probably.

This iBelink miner release on the horizon is like getting a tip on a horse race that is a "sure thing"

...sadly there is nothing that is a "sure thing" in this world.

Will I miss the X11 boat and be kicking myself in the ass later for it?
-Maybe

Will I dodge a huge bullet that may cripple multiple large investors and leave a huge dent in the crypto world?
-Maybe

There are people in this world that just have faith that shit will work out, I don't have faith. I plan and strategize.

In Summary, I'm going to grab my popcorn and watch what happens. I hope for nothing but the best for all those willing to take that leap of faith on one or more of these.

I replaced an 1060 with an 1080 ti and sat it out.

and I stood to make 5000 usd in risk free escrow.
Your integrity most be in the top 0.1 % on this forum, thanks much appreciated.

pikachuy
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May 04, 2017, 11:08:12 AM
 #19

The iBelink DM11g made my spider sense tingling when the ROI calculation says under 30 days. I remember reading somewhere where someone said no one is going to sell gear that ROI in 2 months, or even 1 month for that matter. Has that been true and proven up to this date?

Even if the product is real and gets delivered, I can see iBelink pulling a BITMAIN with their Antminer L3+ of mining the gear, and driving up difficulty before you receive it.

█ BTC: 12FLMGv2pMo7gFrwxVifsJcNYZEVwdHfkk █ ETH: 0x8087a135e9c8EDFf63A917AA0DF44e5F083a31a7 █ LTC: LhKGh5FAMy7ZagBBwj7ArUaktB2tgPp1dL

[WTS] (7) XFX 480 8GB GPU Complete Mining Rig - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2213279
Hanfonan
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May 04, 2017, 11:13:44 AM
 #20

ZEC is crazy profitable right now but if you're a seasoned miner you know that you can't build on it for a long time, not even for 3 months.

But then again the 10800 Mhs X11 miner is even better, in fact it's a ridiculously profitable miner with a whole lot of smoke and mirrors surrounding it.

In fact, it's so profitable that currently it would only take 20 days to reach ROI, using the average, $6200 price. As I said before, let's just think for a second and ask who would sell such a crazy profitable miner instead of using them?

The answer is no sane person.

No self respecting miner I have spoken to even remotely considering buying one. A couple of promises and videos are not proof in this day and age and then there are the other red flags...

but as weird as it may seem Zec has a market cap of 100 mill 

and dash has a market cap of 600 mill

so pumping or supporting zec  is 6x less expensive then pumping or supporting dash.

I know  in ten days I could look like a moron about zec but there are eth xmr skein and others.

I think it is not the general market cap, it is the newly issued coins to be considered in support the price.
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