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美智库:亚细安峰会落幕中菲泰3大赢家
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Topic: 美智库:亚细安峰会落幕中菲泰3大赢家 (Read 113 times)
Maryewr
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美智库:亚细安峰会落幕中菲泰3大赢家
May 04, 2017, 02:55:56 PM
#1
第30届东盟(亚细安)领袖峰会刚落幕,美智库分析,中国、菲律宾总统杜特尔特、以及泰国军方是这届峰会的3大赢家。
美国总统特朗普已经允诺出席11月在菲律宾举行的美国暨东盟峰会、东亚峰会,以及在越南召开的亚太经济合作会议领袖峰会。
在这届东盟领袖峰会期间,特朗普电邀杜特尔特访问白宫,杜特尔特欲迎还拒。位于纽约的智库外交关系协会(CFR)认为,特朗普透过邀访,形同赞许杜特尔特的扫毒粗暴手段、声称两人交好,凸显杜特尔特在区域及国内地位,做为峰会东道主,是形塑政治人物形象的绝佳舞台。
CFR东南亚资深研究员格兰奇克指出,特朗普的作为只会让杜特尔特更加吹嘘,继续其独立外交政策,纵使依约赴白宫访问亦将如此。
他评论分析,中国是这届东盟峰会另一个赢家。南海争议原本是峰会主轴,但会后却是发布了历届以来最温和的声明。区域国家愈来愈与中国靠拢,除与中国交手激烈的越南之外,甚至包括与南海主权声索无关的泰国、柬埔寨等国也是如此。
另外,杜特尔特峰会前原本因南海政策出现转折而与民意相左,也在中国压力下,取消菲律宾独立日视察中业岛,峰会闭幕声明更是明显取悦中国,似未影响其国内高民调支持度。
格兰奇克也认为,特朗普电邀新加坡总理李显龙访美毫无争议,但他批评邀访泰国总理巴育访问白宫的不当之处。
他分析,巴育曾参与政变,泰国未来选举之路仍是个未知数,泰国军方长期以来凌驾政府之上,回到真正民主之路遥遥无期,而巴育的合法性及泰国军方举措,皆将因获邀访问白宫得到背书。
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