Bitcoin price theory

[Nightwatchman]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

[1715596713]

1715596713

[1715596713]

1715596713

[1715596713]

1715596713

[1715596713]

1715596713

[1715596713]

1715596713

[davis196]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

[Nightwatchman]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

[crwth]

I think it's already been proven by its price now it really skyrocketed and it's awesome. We know that our generation is now in the technological stage and it will continue to improve and Bitcoin would improve more. It's one of the innovations that is worth investing on.

[RoommateAgreement]

that sounds plausible but only if you are thinking about bitcoin as something like Gold which people just invest in and hold so the price goes up and more investors come and buy and hold, .... and price goes up.
and that is true about bitcoin.

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

[digaran]

In other words you just described what Bitcoin is and how people currently are interacting with it, of course they need to make sure the network is

stable and any of it's rules are extremely difficult to change, the fact that Bitcoin has enough support which made manufacturers and an entire industry

of miners to come out from the other side and when they see there are truly some serious people spending huge amounts of cash to get involved with mining it.

They're all the indications of a strong and solid network unlike other alternatives with basically a few medium miners deciding everything for the coin.

[Nightwatchman]

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

Yes, I agree with that and in a way it underlines my main supposition: that the more legitimate it becomes as either/both a currency and an investment, the stronger the price base beneath it. I'm no economics scholar but given sentiment plays a role in the success or failure of any investment, legitimacy of the technology surely has an effect on its ongoing viability.

[Amph]

i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

[Kakmakr]

i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

No, people wants some kind of guarantee that the currency that they use are being supported by their government and that they are operating within the legal framework required by that government. There will be no use to build and invest in a company that are based on Bitcoin, if the government is going to shut you down for using a "illegal" payment network or "illegal tender"

Many people still believe a currency is this, " a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. "

Once a government gives it's support for Crypto currencies that economy will grow with the influx of new capital from countries where Bitcoin is banned. ^smile^

[btcney]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

This definitely makes sense and definitely works on bitcoin as well because bitcoin is a disinflationary currency that is designed to hold its value against inflation in the first place. The monetary base is growing, but at an ever slowing pace every halving.

I wouldn't say that currently we are "steadily" climbing, I would claim that a few days ago but right now the price has just shot up $200 in two days, the first signs of a bubble. It could burst, it could keep going, but in the end there will be adjustments.

But interesting proposition.

[Jherek]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

If there is a regular influx of users, then demand goes up. The supply of bitcoin is essentially unchanged because right now already over 2/3 of the coins that will ever exist has already been issued. And block halving just happened.

If demand goes up, and supply stays virtually the same, then price goes up too.

[ArdiPrabowo]

bitcoin price analys without theory
bitcoin price only suply and demand, and then about bad news or good news, example bad new rejected SEC, bitfinex hack in 2016, pboc investesigation and audit china exchanger and more

[Nightwatchman]

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

This point makes complete sense, but my theory is a bit different and works on no great increase in demand; rather, it relies on a contraction of supply. My theory, put simply, is that as the Bitcoin price rises, holders begin to imagine its potential to continue this price growth (treating more as an investment than a day-to-day currency), and then become less likely to sell. Further, as time passes there is a greater belief in the technology, which means Bitcoin becomes less susceptible to news events. Any actual in demand further fuels this.

[Baby Dragon]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I think in the near future the price of bitcoin will increase and becomes more expensive. The price of bitcoin will depend in the market and to the people who use it. The supply and demand of bitcoin also affect the price to change.

[emezh10]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

There are many factor that can affect the price of bitcoin such as supply and demand of bitcoin.In coming future the price of bitcoin will increase or decrease and becomes more expensived.Also the price of the bitcoin will depend in the market or to the people who use it. If there are lot people who use bitcoin the price also will change because some people hold there bitcoin and wait to the time when the price of bitcoin rapidly increasing.

[makolz26]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I think in the near future the price of bitcoin will increase and becomes more expensive. The price of bitcoin will depend in the market and to the people who use it. The supply and demand of bitcoin also affect the price to change.

In near future price will increase more as the demand increases but one thing that also keeps me from being lonely for having a high price  is that there are exchanges who abuse the transaction price, sometimes their transaction price is not just and fair.

[Souldream]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

we cannot predict what was the bitcoin will be in the next few years but for me, i think it will increase more than the previous years, more and more people are interested on it, thats why i think it will be more increase due to the high demand of the masses , people now know what bitcoin is and on where can we use it. People are getting interested so that the market will increase due to the demands.

[megynacuna]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

With the current strides of Bitcoin I even doubt if a panic event might cause any potent serious effect on it because it's past through several of such issues in recent years and I'm hopeful the panic sellers have learnt a lot as a result and wouldn't fret to sell next time if there was even a war.

[raven7886]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

With the current strides of Bitcoin I even doubt if a panic event might cause any potent serious effect on it because it's past through several of such issues in recent years and I'm hopeful the panic sellers have learnt a lot as a result and wouldn't fret to sell next time if there was even a war.

Yes, that must be a reason for bouncing back of bitcoin prices which is exactly happening right now. The panic selling may influence up to some levels but hopefully we are having enough investors to outnumber them. Still, the recent fall of ~$1000 was really a scary one. It may rewrite how bitcoin gains its value and who are all securing bitcoin from not falling continuously. There could be no concrete reasons still we can make few valid assumptions.

[G.Butrik]

Of recent weeks we have clearly seen that it is very hard to predict - how to change the price of bitcoin per day. We have seen a rapid growth of up to 2700 dollars per coin, and then drop to 1800, and then leveling up to 2000. How will bitcoin be tomorrow? Hard to say... I think there is no formula to predict future value of coins. We can only hope for your mind

[KingScorpio]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

there is a little bit of logic possible but for this u need to understand and research the whole antrophologic situation,

Bitcoin rose in value because, the national central bankers which had a currency printing monopoly where distrusted an anonymous issued currency decentrally protected by miners with a fixed supply wasnt possible to be fought by the national moneyprinting bankers, using police and lawyal enforcment in order to protect their monopoly, so there was suddenly an alternative, that is what made bitcoin big it was the distrust with the bankers, now after bitcoin many other cryptocurrencies got issued, with similar protected systems, there werent as successful and only fame and technology is keeping their value up and belief in it like the belief in gold.

so to further research the development of a cryptocurrency i would reccomend u to research the source of the liquidity which is exchanged for the cryptocurrency u are looking on, it might be very likely that the worlds rich banking elite is now putting money into bitcoin, for A: to hedge themselves and B: to prevent more kryptocurrencies.

but there is a 3rd possible reason and that is the exchanges themselves might tell untrue information and might be gimmicks and tools that u cannot know as well.

[Kallipso]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

there is a little bit of logic possible but for this u need to understand and research the whole antrophologic situation,

Bitcoin rose in value because, the national central bankers which had a currency printing monopoly where distrusted an anonymous issued currency decentrally protected by miners with a fixed supply wasnt possible to be fought by the national moneyprinting bankers, using police and lawyal enforcment in order to protect their monopoly, so there was suddenly an alternative, that is what made bitcoin big it was the distrust with the bankers, now after bitcoin many other cryptocurrencies got issued, with similar protected systems, there werent as successful and only fame and technology is keeping their value up and belief in it like the belief in gold.

so to further research the development of a cryptocurrency i would reccomend u to research the source of the liquidity which is exchanged for the cryptocurrency u are looking on, it might be very likely that the worlds rich banking elite is now putting money into bitcoin, for A: to hedge themselves and B: to prevent more kryptocurrencies.

but there is a 3rd possible reason and that is the exchanges themselves might tell untrue information and might be gimmicks and tools that u cannot know as well.

I've already made sure that predictions and predictions are better than ungrateful thing, because the fact is that they do not always come true and he says Bitcoin. When predictions are waiting for many users, I would refrain altogether because this is ungrateful business and not always the forecasts come true.

[Hydrogen]

One issue with pricing and valuation could be faith not always being validated.

One example is real estate in the united states. Few recalling a time when real estate prices in the united states declined led many to believing the price of real estate in america would never go down.

This fostered the perfect environment for a subprime mortgage bubble.

An overabundance of faith can lead to bubbles and overvalued assets.

[Sled]

The price of bitcoin now is cheaper compared to the possible price in the future because the development for bitcoin will continue for the next year because now we are in the era of technology and a lot of things will come sooner or later so we just need to collect and accumulate bitcoin for long term.

[pooya87]

it is all in the size!
when bitcoin was cheap many bought a lot of it. for example back in 2009-2010 and now they are called whales because they have been doing it ever since. now in this market where the daily volume despite being high is still small price can easily change when a big sell happens and they do dump and then panic sells come. and this is becoming a norm now!
the only way the volatility is going to decrease is if the orderbooks become bigger so they can't vanish with a big sell coming. you can call it people's faith but i say it takes time.

[ethereumhunter]

The price of bitcoin now is cheaper compared to the possible price in the future because the development for bitcoin will continue for the next year because now we are in the era of technology and a lot of things will come sooner or later so we just need to collect and accumulate bitcoin for long term.

maybe the price is more cheaper than in the future and i am agree with you, but i think before the price is reach the highest price, the correction price will be come and i think that is the best time for us to buy if we are missed the time to buy the lower price. we can found the correction price after the increasing of the price.

[coynedterm]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

This is only due to the reason , the amount of the Bitcoin is available in the limited amount  .And day by day Daily people in this field are entering that increases the demand in the Bitcoin  .
Since mining are continuously going on but after every mined Bitcoin the mining of next Bitcoin is became tough .
So this leads into the lack of the supply of the Bitcoin and increase in the demand .
So totally net gain in the increase in the price of the Bitcoin .
If all the people will sell Thier Bitcoin then I am 100% that the price will go down and if the most people will ask for the Bitcoin Buy then this will results into the high demand and as a result of it the price will increase and vice versa .

[mharz]

If we review the history of bitcoin, for the year 2014 their price were around 100.00 - 250.00$, in 2015 its around 300.00 - 500.00$, in 2016 its around 600.00 - 1000.00$ but in 2017 the price of bitcoin was already 2000.00$ and up. It was so great, it give opportunity to all users. I was expecting that bitcoin in 2018 were around 3000.00$ up to 5000.00$.

[Xester]

One issue with pricing and valuation could be faith not always being validated.

One example is real estate in the united states. Few recalling a time when real estate prices in the united states declined led many to believing the price of real estate in america would never go down.

This fostered the perfect environment for a subprime mortgage bubble.

An overabundance of faith can lead to bubbles and overvalued assets.

There is a huge difference between real estate and bitcoin. Bitcoins bubbles are caused by the big whales which hype the market and after reaching a certain amount they will dump their coins. Real estates value has a different factor than bitcoin, it is the condition, position and classification of the land that dictates the value. But what makes them alike is the demand when there are huge demand the value is growing.

[Kabul]

If we review the history of bitcoin, for the year 2014 their price were around 0.10 - 0.25$, in 2015 its around 0.30 - 0.50$, in 2016 its around 0.60 - 1.00$ but in 2017 the price of bitcoin was already 2.00$ and up. It was so great, it give opportunity to all users. I was expecting that bitcoin in 2018 were around 3.00$ up to 5.00$.

wtf? Bitcoin is $2.00? Where is your brain bro? It is obvious that bitcoin is more than $2000 right now, not $2.00

[bncbnc]

The price of bitcoin now is cheaper compared to the possible price in the future because the development for bitcoin will continue for the next year because now we are in the era of technology and a lot of things will come sooner or later so we just need to collect and accumulate bitcoin for long term.

in fact the number of bitcoin users are also increasing from time to time which is also causing the increase in the price of bitcoin, i am sure that very soon the price of bitcoin will increase too much, because of the increasing demand of bitcoin. because when the demand of bitcoin is increasing the supply will be decreasing and which is also causing the increase in the price of bitcoin.

[gabmen]

The price of bitcoin now is cheaper compared to the possible price in the future because the development for bitcoin will continue for the next year because now we are in the era of technology and a lot of things will come sooner or later so we just need to collect and accumulate bitcoin for long term.

in fact the number of bitcoin users are also increasing from time to time which is also causing the increase in the price of bitcoin, i am sure that very soon the price of bitcoin will increase too much, because of the increasing demand of bitcoin. because when the demand of bitcoin is increasing the supply will be decreasing and which is also causing the increase in the price of bitcoin.

correct. and people now are becoming more and more aware that having btc would be a very good investment seeing the movement of the price especially this past 2 weeks. the demand for btc would probably be higher and the next price surge may well be at the 3k or beyond. whew its a good time to have btc savings now

[tigershark]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

As more investors get into bitcoin, there should be less volatility. A larger volume of people makes it harder for whales to manipulate the price and makes it harder for panic selling and buying to affect the price as much.

[stompix]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

It's always pretty funny to read about predictions that have been proven wrong in less than a month since they were told.

As more investors get into bitcoin, there should be less volatility. A larger volume of people makes it harder for whales to manipulate the price and makes it harder for panic selling and buying to affect the price as much.

You haven't watched the news either it seems.

In theory everything should go like this.
In reality... it's bitcoin.

If we review the history of bitcoin, for the year 2014 their price were around 0.10 - 0.25$, in 2015 its around 0.30 - 0.50$, in 2016 its around 0.60 - 1.00$ but in 2017 the price of bitcoin was already 2.00$ and up. It was so great, it give opportunity to all users. I was expecting that bitcoin in 2018 were around 3.00$ up to 5.00$.

As for you....
What the hell are you talking about?