Bitcoin price theory

[Nightwatchman]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

[davis196]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

[Nightwatchman]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

[crwth]

I think it's already been proven by its price now it really skyrocketed and it's awesome. We know that our generation is now in the technological stage and it will continue to improve and Bitcoin would improve more. It's one of the innovations that is worth investing on.

[RoommateAgreement]

that sounds plausible but only if you are thinking about bitcoin as something like Gold which people just invest in and hold so the price goes up and more investors come and buy and hold, .... and price goes up.
and that is true about bitcoin.

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

[digaran]

In other words you just described what Bitcoin is and how people currently are interacting with it, of course they need to make sure the network is

stable and any of it's rules are extremely difficult to change, the fact that Bitcoin has enough support which made manufacturers and an entire industry

of miners to come out from the other side and when they see there are truly some serious people spending huge amounts of cash to get involved with mining it.

They're all the indications of a strong and solid network unlike other alternatives with basically a few medium miners deciding everything for the coin.

[Nightwatchman]

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

Yes, I agree with that and in a way it underlines my main supposition: that the more legitimate it becomes as either/both a currency and an investment, the stronger the price base beneath it. I'm no economics scholar but given sentiment plays a role in the success or failure of any investment, legitimacy of the technology surely has an effect on its ongoing viability.

[Amph]

i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

[Kakmakr]

i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

No, people wants some kind of guarantee that the currency that they use are being supported by their government and that they are operating within the legal framework required by that government. There will be no use to build and invest in a company that are based on Bitcoin, if the government is going to shut you down for using a "illegal" payment network or "illegal tender"

Many people still believe a currency is this, " a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. "

Once a government gives it's support for Crypto currencies that economy will grow with the influx of new capital from countries where Bitcoin is banned. ^smile^

[btcney]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

This definitely makes sense and definitely works on bitcoin as well because bitcoin is a disinflationary currency that is designed to hold its value against inflation in the first place. The monetary base is growing, but at an ever slowing pace every halving.

I wouldn't say that currently we are "steadily" climbing, I would claim that a few days ago but right now the price has just shot up $200 in two days, the first signs of a bubble. It could burst, it could keep going, but in the end there will be adjustments.

But interesting proposition.

[Jherek]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

If there is a regular influx of users, then demand goes up. The supply of bitcoin is essentially unchanged because right now already over 2/3 of the coins that will ever exist has already been issued. And block halving just happened.

If demand goes up, and supply stays virtually the same, then price goes up too.

[ArdiPrabowo]

bitcoin price analys without theory
bitcoin price only suply and demand, and then about bad news or good news, example bad new rejected SEC, bitfinex hack in 2016, pboc investesigation and audit china exchanger and more

[Nightwatchman]

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

This point makes complete sense, but my theory is a bit different and works on no great increase in demand; rather, it relies on a contraction of supply. My theory, put simply, is that as the Bitcoin price rises, holders begin to imagine its potential to continue this price growth (treating more as an investment than a day-to-day currency), and then become less likely to sell. Further, as time passes there is a greater belief in the technology, which means Bitcoin becomes less susceptible to news events. Any actual in demand further fuels this.

[Baby Dragon]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I think in the near future the price of bitcoin will increase and becomes more expensive. The price of bitcoin will depend in the market and to the people who use it. The supply and demand of bitcoin also affect the price to change.

[emezh10]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

There are many factor that can affect the price of bitcoin such as supply and demand of bitcoin.In coming future the price of bitcoin will increase or decrease and becomes more expensived.Also the price of the bitcoin will depend in the market or to the people who use it. If there are lot people who use bitcoin the price also will change because some people hold there bitcoin and wait to the time when the price of bitcoin rapidly increasing.

[makolz26]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I think in the near future the price of bitcoin will increase and becomes more expensive. The price of bitcoin will depend in the market and to the people who use it. The supply and demand of bitcoin also affect the price to change.

In near future price will increase more as the demand increases but one thing that also keeps me from being lonely for having a high price  is that there are exchanges who abuse the transaction price, sometimes their transaction price is not just and fair.

[Souldream]

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

we cannot predict what was the bitcoin will be in the next few years but for me, i think it will increase more than the previous years, more and more people are interested on it, thats why i think it will be more increase due to the high demand of the masses , people now know what bitcoin is and on where can we use it. People are getting interested so that the market will increase due to the demands.

[megynacuna]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

With the current strides of Bitcoin I even doubt if a panic event might cause any potent serious effect on it because it's past through several of such issues in recent years and I'm hopeful the panic sellers have learnt a lot as a result and wouldn't fret to sell next time if there was even a war.

[raven7886]

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

With the current strides of Bitcoin I even doubt if a panic event might cause any potent serious effect on it because it's past through several of such issues in recent years and I'm hopeful the panic sellers have learnt a lot as a result and wouldn't fret to sell next time if there was even a war.

Yes, that must be a reason for bouncing back of bitcoin prices which is exactly happening right now. The panic selling may influence up to some levels but hopefully we are having enough investors to outnumber them. Still, the recent fall of ~$1000 was really a scary one. It may rewrite how bitcoin gains its value and who are all securing bitcoin from not falling continuously. There could be no concrete reasons still we can make few valid assumptions.

[G.Butrik]

Of recent weeks we have clearly seen that it is very hard to predict - how to change the price of bitcoin per day. We have seen a rapid growth of up to 2700 dollars per coin, and then drop to 1800, and then leveling up to 2000. How will bitcoin be tomorrow? Hard to say... I think there is no formula to predict future value of coins. We can only hope for your mind