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Author Topic: The Flipening when? 51% Devexed Attack  (Read 1756 times)
jubalix (OP)
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May 08, 2017, 01:53:46 AM
Last edit: May 08, 2017, 03:27:32 AM by jubalix
 #1

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

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May 08, 2017, 02:32:49 AM
 #2

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?


BTC is the world reserve currency for the crytocurrency world. Your question
is like saying, "When will the Rupee or the Peso overtake the US Dollar?".
There are times when it ebbs and flows, but to overtake it is ludicrous.

It is more likely for Bitcoin to fail as an experiment and die, then for it to be
overtaken by an altcoin that currently exists and is being traded. Nothing is as
secure and well rounded as Bitcoin is today.

Anyone who invests into ETH, thinking it will overtake BTC is very ignorant as
to what BTC and ETH are and what they were both separately designed for.

I support a decentralized & unregulatable ledger first, with safe scaling over time.
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jonald_fyookball
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May 08, 2017, 02:39:30 AM
 #3

If Bitcoin ever becomes #2 instead of #1, while at the same time not having a scaling solution fully implemented, its over.  

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May 08, 2017, 02:51:41 AM
 #4

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

2 years is wildly too long. I agree that bitcoin will have a few months to recover if/when it loses the #1 position. At that point there will absolutely need to be a solution to the scaling debate. If it is not found, bitcoin will drop at an increasing rate and become a footnote in a matter of months. There are too many alternative onramps to crypto now.

I expect BTC dominance to drop below 50% within the week, waking up some people not paying attention yet, and causing some maximalists to start hedging. The hedging and increased awareness could create a vicious circle as more maximalists and passive BTC holders finally start diversifying, resulting in the flippening happening in a matter of days or weeks, not months.

Bottom line, I think it is dangerously close to too late right now for BTC. And there is just no real sense of urgency to drive home a solution to the scaling impasse. I'm not saying people aren't concerned, but the sense of impending doom is not there yet like it should be. Governance turned out to be the big weak point in bitcoin.

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jubalix (OP)
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May 08, 2017, 03:24:44 AM
 #5

It sort of funny when you think about it the real 51% attack comes in the form of lost of market cap, and through impotent development
implementation.

This was a very unexpected attack vector.

I think its needs some sort term coined for it....as a cautionary tale to future coins....

I shall call it a

Devexed [Attack]

when the failure dev implementation causes your coin go below 51% of the market share or similar. This causes a coin to go into a death spiral as to market and use despite high demand. There is also an usual pathology where the proponents of conflicting development solutions are incapable of seeing the other side of the argument or reaching any compromise and even attack any suggestion that their position is deleterious to their eventual goal.

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May 08, 2017, 03:32:37 AM
 #6

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

2 years is wildly too long. I agree that bitcoin will have a few months to recover if/when it loses the #1 position. At that point there will absolutely need to be a solution to the scaling debate. If it is not found, bitcoin will drop at an increasing rate and become a footnote in a matter of months. There are too many alternative onramps to crypto now.

I expect BTC dominance to drop below 50% within the week, waking up some people not paying attention yet, and causing some maximalists to start hedging. The hedging and increased awareness could create a vicious circle as more maximalists and passive BTC holders finally start diversifying, resulting in the flippening happening in a matter of days or weeks, not months.

Bottom line, I think it is dangerously close to too late right now for BTC. And there is just no real sense of urgency to drive home a solution to the scaling impasse. I'm not saying people aren't concerned, but the sense of impending doom is not there yet like it should be. Governance turned out to be the big weak point in bitcoin.

You think Bitcoin could lose #1 position because people do not want to
(1) pay competitive prices for the only censorship resistant payment platform
and (2) are willing to sacrifice their security in the system for convenience?

If a true "flippening" ever comes about, which I can not imagine realistically
occurring, then it only does so because the masses wish to be enslaved.
Bitcoin's only true purpose is to counter the current financial system, not to
mimic it.

I support a decentralized & unregulatable ledger first, with safe scaling over time.
Request a signed message if you are associating with anyone claiming to be me.
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May 08, 2017, 03:35:14 AM
 #7

  the only censorship resistant payment platform

by what definition?

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May 08, 2017, 03:40:31 AM
 #8

 the only censorship resistant payment platform

by what definition?

In relation to regulated payment platforms.

When people make complaints that their tx was close to Paypal fees,
it ignores the purpose of using Bitcoin or blockchain like currencies.

I support a decentralized & unregulatable ledger first, with safe scaling over time.
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jonald_fyookball
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May 08, 2017, 03:41:37 AM
 #9

  the only censorship resistant payment platform

by what definition?

In relation to regulated payment platforms.


Plenty of alt coins are 'censorship resistant' just like Bitcoin.  If you disagree, provide a definition that holds true for Bitcoin and no other coin.

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May 08, 2017, 03:48:49 AM
 #10

 the only censorship resistant payment platform

by what definition?

In relation to regulated payment platforms.


Plenty of alt coins are 'censorship resistant' just like Bitcoin.  If you disagree, provide a definition that holds true for Bitcoin and no other coin.

Regulated payment platforms, such as Paypal, I'm not talking about altcoins.

Majority of altcoins are very weak and can be attacked easily through different means.
In fact, majority of them are very vulnerable today. No one cares about them, so they
aren't normally attacked. If ETH passes BTC, they could be neutralized more easily than
Bitcoin.

I support a decentralized & unregulatable ledger first, with safe scaling over time.
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jubalix (OP)
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May 08, 2017, 03:51:34 AM
 #11

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

2 years is wildly too long. I agree that bitcoin will have a few months to recover if/when it loses the #1 position. At that point there will absolutely need to be a solution to the scaling debate. If it is not found, bitcoin will drop at an increasing rate and become a footnote in a matter of months. There are too many alternative onramps to crypto now.

I expect BTC dominance to drop below 50% within the week, waking up some people not paying attention yet, and causing some maximalists to start hedging. The hedging and increased awareness could create a vicious circle as more maximalists and passive BTC holders finally start diversifying, resulting in the flippening happening in a matter of days or weeks, not months.

Bottom line, I think it is dangerously close to too late right now for BTC. And there is just no real sense of urgency to drive home a solution to the scaling impasse. I'm not saying people aren't concerned, but the sense of impending doom is not there yet like it should be. Governance turned out to be the big weak point in bitcoin.

You think Bitcoin could lose #1 position because people do not want to
(1) pay competitive prices for the only censorship resistant payment platform
and (2) are willing to sacrifice their security in the system for convenience?

If a true "flippening" ever comes about, which I can not imagine realistically
occurring, then it only does so because the masses wish to be enslaved.
Bitcoin's only true purpose is to counter the current financial system, not to
mimic it.




Yes I am not that bothered if I loose $2 or get filmed at starbucks buying a cofee.

But I am really upset if my $2 is glued my hand or have to pay an indestructible robot $4 to take my $2 and give it to the cashier.

I want my coin to be able to do both.

So if BTC is high value only, and it maybe I expect coins designed to do that to win out like *PPC*, which is actually designed to be a backbone currency in a way BTC is not.

I am convinced alot of bitcoiners and people in the crypto space have little idea where the actual value in transactions occur, and its not at muh, amazon, muh coffee shop. Its in high value swaps, balancing the nightly, money/futures markets. Buying and selling 100,000's of Houses a day

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May 08, 2017, 03:52:55 AM
 #12

 the only censorship resistant payment platform

by what definition?

In relation to regulated payment platforms.


Plenty of alt coins are 'censorship resistant' just like Bitcoin.  If you disagree, provide a definition that holds true for Bitcoin and no other coin.

Regulated payment platforms, such as Paypal, I'm not talking about altcoins.

Majority of altcoins are very weak and can be attacked easily through different means.
In fact, majority of them are very vulnerable today. No one cares about them, so they
aren't normally attacked. If ETH passes BTC, they could be neutralized more easily than
Bitcoin.


No, It forks, and that fork obtains tech, ethos to prevent that happening again, and the market ascribes value, see ETC for a $600M case study

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May 08, 2017, 03:59:46 AM
Last edit: May 08, 2017, 06:20:03 AM by Lauda
 #13

Plenty of alt coins are 'censorship resistant' just like Bitcoin.  If you disagree, provide a definition that holds true for Bitcoin and no other coin.
No. Most of those altcoins can be easily attacked (e.g. miner who recently joined Vertcoin with over 50% of the hashrate to block Segwit).

No, It forks, and that fork obtains tech, ethos to prevent that happening again, and the market ascribes value, see ETC for a $600M case study
You mean the real ETH which now carries the name ETC because ETH is a trademark? The same very ETC being trolled by ETH developers because of the potential ETC ETF? You shouldn't use a consensus-failing, and centralized coin led by amateurs and childish individuals in comparisons to Bitcoin.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?
Once Ver stops paying them and once Jihad Wu starts acting like an adult.

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May 08, 2017, 06:19:05 AM
 #14

It sort of funny when you think about it the real 51% attack comes in the form of lost of market cap, and through impotent development
implementation.

This was a very unexpected attack vector.

I think its needs some sort term coined for it....as a cautionary tale to future coins....

I shall call it a

Devexed [Attack]

when the failure dev implementation causes your coin go below 51% of the market share or similar. This causes a coin to go into a death spiral as to market and use despite high demand. There is also an usual pathology where the proponents of conflicting development solutions are incapable of seeing the other side of the argument or reaching any compromise and even attack any suggestion that their position is deleterious to their eventual goal.

So the solution is what? Break away from a system that is based on consensus, to something where centralized development make all the calls? You have to be Bat shit crazy to think that something like that would be a better alternative. ^grrrrrr^

The whole idea about the consensus model in Bitcoin is functioning as it should. Anyone is free to add new implementations and if the nodes think that these new additions is good for Bitcoin, then they start running that software. < No matter who they are >

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May 08, 2017, 07:23:03 AM
 #15

You think Bitcoin could lose #1 position because people do not want to
(1) pay competitive prices for the only censorship resistant payment platform
and (2) are willing to sacrifice their security in the system for convenience?

What makes you think that bitcoin is unique in this respect ?
Bitcoin, as of this moment, is a pseudo-centralized system that is ran by about 20 mining nodes, of which 5 are majority and of which some of them are in the hands of one single entity ; and most of these mining nodes have their mining power provided by one single producer of competitive mining equipment, and many of them are based in a single country where individual freedom is very relative.

I wouldn't directly call that the most censorship resistant network, when compared to many other similar systems.

Quote
If a true "flippening" ever comes about, which I can not imagine realistically
occurring, then it only does so because the masses wish to be enslaved.
Bitcoin's only true purpose is to counter the current financial system, not to
mimic it.

Well, in that respect a) it got competitors ; b) it failed due to deflationary design (it is much more a speculative "lets' get rich quickly" asset than a true currency) and c) the masses are not into it.

When you look at the current VOLUMES, in fact, the "masses" (who want to get rich quickly ; not who want to buy coffee) are using 2/3 alt coins, and only 1/3 bitcoin.

So, even though bitcoin has its merits, I don't see what makes it "unique" apart from being the first.  It was the first implementation of a new idea. Many others improved upon that first idea since then. There's no reason to stick with the first implementation as the best one for ever.  But Ford-T was also the first mass produced car.  That doesn't mean the only mass produced car ever to be meaningful is going to stay Ford-T.

If you are thinking about currency, in fact, the exact currency you're using today, and you're using tomorrow doesn't matter.  However, if you are sitting on a stash in a greater-fool game (which crypto essentially is), then of course you're not happy when the fools go to another game - because you might end up being the greater one after all.


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May 08, 2017, 08:20:44 PM
 #16

You think Bitcoin could lose #1 position because people do not want to
(1) pay competitive prices for the only censorship resistant payment platform
and (2) are willing to sacrifice their security in the system for convenience?

What makes you think that bitcoin is unique in this respect ?
Bitcoin, as of this moment, is a pseudo-centralized system that is ran by about 20 mining nodes, of which 5 are majority and of which some of them are in the hands of one single entity ; and most of these mining nodes have their mining power provided by one single producer of competitive mining equipment, and many of them are based in a single country where individual freedom is very relative.

I wouldn't directly call that the most censorship resistant network, when compared to many other similar systems.

Unique is irrelevant. Market Cap is irrelevant. Security is paramount.
Bitcoin was designed to be the most secure, censorship resistant, online currency possible.
If it outright failed, we wouldn't be here today. Those who copy it, but change fundamental
structures of its security, are not actual competitors, but "pretenders".

It was designed with one purpose, securability. There may be flaws in the system, such
as the current mining centralization problem, but that is only transient. Over long periods
of time, that centralization loses it grip due to technological advancements. In 50 years, it
is possible civilians in their homes may begin solo mining again due to new technology that
are affordable and common in each home, as well as new forms of solar energy accumulation
and storage. The point being, Bitcoin not being so called "unique" now is irrelevant, and that
there may be competitors now (which I disagree with, that is like saying skateboards are
competitors to helicopters) is not important in the larger picture.

All altcoins that currently exist are actually all untested. The only one that comes close to
any testing is Ethereum, and they failed since they proved there can be times where things
are "too big to fail" and will revise their originating social contract based on the whims of their
VCs and ignorant users. Within a year of ETH's release, they directly interfered into their protocol
to "bailout" a subsidiary unrelated to the protocol. All other coins have not even begun to reach
the starting line in the race of cryptocurrency competition. All those coins are wonderful illusions
for those who wish to live a lie.


If a true "flippening" ever comes about, which I can not imagine realistically
occurring, then it only does so because the masses wish to be enslaved.
Bitcoin's only true purpose is to counter the current financial system, not to
mimic it.

Well, in that respect a) it got competitors ; b) it failed due to deflationary design (it is much more a speculative "lets' get rich quickly" asset than a true currency) and c) the masses are not into it.

When you look at the current VOLUMES, in fact, the "masses" (who want to get rich quickly ; not who want to buy coffee) are using 2/3 alt coins, and only 1/3 bitcoin.

So, even though bitcoin has its merits, I don't see what makes it "unique" apart from being the first.  It was the first implementation of a new idea. Many others improved upon that first idea since then. There's no reason to stick with the first implementation as the best one for ever.  But Ford-T was also the first mass produced car.  That doesn't mean the only mass produced car ever to be meaningful is going to stay Ford-T.

If you are thinking about currency, in fact, the exact currency you're using today, and you're using tomorrow doesn't matter.  However, if you are sitting on a stash in a greater-fool game (which crypto essentially is), then of course you're not happy when the fools go to another game - because you might end up being the greater one after all.

Satoshi proposed an answer to the online currency problems inspired by the problems with
the financial world in 2008, but that does not mean that the full use and potential of the
system has come about. The masses that exist now, and are entering our sphere are the
"get rich quickers". Majority of them are either directly from the financial world where they
have been taught to "rape and pillage" then repackage and sell to the next fool, or very
young children who have little money, but are beginning to learn trading by participating
within the altcoin world. Both of those "masses" are not the primary target of this type of
currency. Those people are irrelevant to Bitcoin's long term goals. If anything, they are  
hurdles that we must be overcome since they think PayPalCoin is equivalent to Bitcoin.

Comparing Bitcoin to the model T-Ford is an incorrect analogy. A better example would be
comparing it to an engine. There are different types of engines in existence with each
designed to facilitate different purposes. Some are efficient and others are gas hogs,
some are simple and others are heavily complex, some are for the air and others for
the ground.

All those different engine types are like the cryptocurrency world. Each engine facilitates
a different purpose, but only one engine is specifically designed for the average form of
road travel. That is the modern day car engine. It is the standard today because of it
reliability and etc. Though there are many other types of engines that could "compete with"
that type, they do not, since the standard today performs its job in a reliable manner. Maybe
one day, when civilians have "flying cars" that standard will change, but as long as there
are cars on the ground, this form of engine type will be the standard (ignoring advancements
such as electromagnetic engines).

I have no concern that Bitcoin will lose to a "competitor" because there are no actual
competitors that currently exist. Majority of all altcoins today are pure illusions that are
untested in many different ways. When an altcoin claims superiority over Bitcoin for a
specific reason, such as "faster confirmation" for example, there needs to be a loss of
something, for that coin to get that gain. That is the reality here. So when you say there
are competitors to Bitcoin, what you are really saying is that some are competitors,
because they decided to do something Bitcoin can not, at the cost of something that
Bitcoin does best. In the world of cryptocurrency, that is a failure, but the masses haven't
learned that yet since they are not instructed, but left to their own education. They think
that illusions can be better than reality and then its becomes their truth.

These individuals are not true Bitcoiners, but are hurdles that must be overcome or they
will erode the system from within. That is what happened with the 2008 financial crisis
and what Satoshi envisioned Bitcoin to counteract. Those destructive masses have finally
arrived at our doorstep, yet you confused them with real purposeful adoption. They are
purely destructive and all consuming. Satoshi did not accept their world/financial views.

I support a decentralized & unregulatable ledger first, with safe scaling over time.
Request a signed message if you are associating with anyone claiming to be me.
alyssa85
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May 08, 2017, 09:16:07 PM
 #17

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

It's not just market cap that matters. Other metrics come into play as well, such as the number of transactions in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin leads by far with 360,636 transactions in the last 24 hours. The next is ETH with 117,551 transactions and then Doge with 17,038. See the following for details:

https://bitinfocharts.com/

As you can see bitcoin is still the most used crypto and will retain it's #1 status as long as that remains true.

 
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cellard
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May 08, 2017, 11:03:34 PM
 #18

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

Ethereum is a joke as money. It's interesting, pretty interesting and innovative projects here and there, but TONS of smoke and mirrors.

LTC is BTC's code with segwit, lightning network, schnorr sigs, MAST, CT, Coinjoin... only an idiot can't see how if any coin can rival BTC then is it's better clone, LTC.
leowonderful
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May 08, 2017, 11:21:18 PM
 #19

What is the critical market cap / event(s)  / non-event (eg failure to adapt) that will see a terminal decline or marginalization of btc and over what time scale?

I feel an alt, say eth having a larger cap and volume than BTC for about 2 months will be hard for BTC to recover from.

If BTC moves to Number 3 or 4 by market cap even harder.

I know market cap is massively misleading,  but its populist nature is alot of its power.

If BTC does not scale within 2 years is my time frame.

I wonder what the miners will be doing with all their paper weights at that point, particularly the highly leveraged ones?

Ethereum is a joke as money. It's interesting, pretty interesting and innovative projects here and there, but TONS of smoke and mirrors.

LTC is BTC's code with segwit, lightning network, schnorr sigs, MAST, CT, Coinjoin... only an idiot can't see how if any coin can rival BTC then is it's better clone, LTC.
Better? Hold up for a second, if LTC were truly better than BTC then we would see a much larger userbase and a higher price but that's not happening. The way I see it, LTC is a prototype of BTC with the nearly same things happening to Bitcoin after changes are amended to LTC. Hopefully Lightning will be added to BTC as well so prices will really start to take off on BTC.
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May 08, 2017, 11:23:20 PM
 #20

If such a thing really did happen we would see the varying factions dropping their ideological differences in the blink of an eye and running for the option the market wants. Right now that's Segwit.

There are an awful lot of people waiting for BTC to get its shit together. They're the ones who ultimately count and they have the ultimate control by voting with their money.
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