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Author Topic: For New Investors - The 3 Percent Bitcoin Rule  (Read 1402 times)
fintekneeks
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May 09, 2017, 12:16:59 PM
 #1

People new to Bitcoin may want to consider the 3 Bitcoin Rule (3% of total), since investors unfamiliar with Bitcoin have many stories involving mistakes of selling too early, or jumping in at the wrong time due to the panic of missing a trend.  I met one of the smartest bitcoinaires at a meetup in downtown Dallas, who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade. However, seller’s remorse can happen and we can mitigate it by simply following this 3 Bitcoin Rule: always keep a minimum of 3% of your bitcoin total (so 3 if you have 100).  In our minds, we’ve “lost” these forever, so we don’t debate whether we made a mistake when we sold some or not.

Traders who have more experience may find this rule inappropriate, but for people new to bitcoin, this has done well over time.

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May 09, 2017, 12:28:24 PM
 #2

People new to Bitcoin may want to consider the 3 Bitcoin Rule (3% of total), since investors unfamiliar with Bitcoin have many stories involving mistakes of selling too early, or jumping in at the wrong time due to the panic of missing a trend.  I met one of the smartest bitcoinaires at a meetup in downtown Dallas, who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade. However, seller’s remorse can happen and we can mitigate it by simply following this 3 Bitcoin Rule: always keep a minimum of 3% of your bitcoin total (so 3 if you have 100).  In our minds, we’ve “lost” these forever, so we don’t debate whether we made a mistake when we sold some or not.

Traders who have more experience may find this rule inappropriate, but for people new to bitcoin, this has done well over time.
3% can be achievable and its possible to kept it for a matter of time but this thing would really depend on the control of a certain individual since we dont really know whats on ahead and feeling of regretting specially early adopters cant really be avoided because they do sell off their bitcoin on a low price but still it would be okay as long we are on profits and its not really late to jump in again even though the price is already high as of now.

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pawel7777
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May 09, 2017, 12:57:09 PM
 #3

Can you provide any rationale for the 3%? Or is the number just taken out of nowhere?

Why not 1%, 5%, 10% or even 20%?

And I must be missing a point, how would the rule prevent the Dallas bitcoinaire from feeling regret for selling 97% of his stash at ridiculously low price? Not to mention that (according to the rule) he vouched to hold the remaining 3% forever, so won't be ever taking any advantage of the price rise, unless he decides not to follow the rule.

For this specific example, the "sell half each time the price doubles" (or variation of it) seems way more appropriate.

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May 09, 2017, 01:09:22 PM
 #4


Can you provide any rationale for the 3%? Or is the number just taken out of nowhere?

Why not 1%, 5%, 10% or even 20%?

And I must be missing a point, how would the rule prevent the Dallas bitcoinaire from selling 97% of his stash at ridiculously low price? He would still feel regret, not to mention that (according to the rule) he vouched to hold the remaining 3% forever, so won't be ever taking any advantage of the price rise, unless he decides not to follow the rule.

For this specific example, the "sell half each time the price doubles" (or variation of it) seems way more appropriate.
While that specific percentage is meaningless, it is repeatable.

For example, you have 1000 Bitcoin and the price is $1.  You sell 970 of it, and five years later the price is $1000.  You sell 29.1 of it, and five years later the price is a million (much less likely  Wink).

No real reason to only hold 3% though.  With any stock I would only sell a small part at a time.

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May 09, 2017, 01:22:53 PM
 #5

you can't just make up rules for how much you sell and how much you hold in my opinion.
i have sold so many coins and i have bought so many more. and i have earned a lot too, but i never regret anything. not a single satoshi was sold or spent without a reason. i don't put any percentages or anything for myself, if i absolutely need the money and i have no other way of coming up with the amount then i will sell my coins otherwise there is no reason to sell unless it is 2020 and price is above $10,000
and as for spending, i am benefiting from doing it instead of using fiat. so i will continue doing it!

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pawel7777
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May 09, 2017, 01:34:33 PM
 #6


Can you provide any rationale for the 3%? Or is the number just taken out of nowhere?

Why not 1%, 5%, 10% or even 20%?

And I must be missing a point, how would the rule prevent the Dallas bitcoinaire from selling 97% of his stash at ridiculously low price? He would still feel regret, not to mention that (according to the rule) he vouched to hold the remaining 3% forever, so won't be ever taking any advantage of the price rise, unless he decides not to follow the rule.

For this specific example, the "sell half each time the price doubles" (or variation of it) seems way more appropriate.
While that specific percentage is meaningless, it is repeatable.

For example, you have 1000 Bitcoin and the price is $1.  You sell 970 of it, and five years later the price is $1000.  You sell 29.1 of it, and five years later the price is a million (much less likely  Wink).

No real reason to only hold 3% though.  With any stock I would only sell a small part at a time.

That would make a bit more sense, but that's not what the linked article is saying at all. Instead, we got this:

Quote
He won’t try to out-think himself here with these 3 Bitcoins; he will simply keep them forever in a combination of wallets. The other 97, he may sell, then buy back later, or use, but his 3 Bitcoins will never be touched.

So clearly, the author's intention was not for the rule to be repeatable.

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May 09, 2017, 01:40:36 PM
 #7

People new to Bitcoin may want to consider the 3 Bitcoin Rule (3% of total), since investors unfamiliar with Bitcoin have many stories involving mistakes of selling too early, or jumping in at the wrong time due to the panic of missing a trend.  I met one of the smartest bitcoinaires at a meetup in downtown Dallas, who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade. However, seller’s remorse can happen and we can mitigate it by simply following this 3 Bitcoin Rule: always keep a minimum of 3% of your bitcoin total (so 3 if you have 100).  In our minds, we’ve “lost” these forever, so we don’t debate whether we made a mistake when we sold some or not.

Traders who have more experience may find this rule inappropriate, but for people new to bitcoin, this has done well over time.

That is a good principle but on the long run it will not suffice sine 3% is aver small amount. One of the best strategy is the 1% rule and that is to make use of your bitcoin without spending it all and also to make sure that it will suffice in the long run. The 1% rule allows you to sell 1% of your saved bitcoin per month and since bitcoins price is constantly going up your withdrawals are also increasing in value. This is an 8 year plan and so you will have a good life with those years. But to prolong it the 1% monthly must also be used in investment of any kind or do some trading so that you can replenish what you have consumed when you earned some profit.

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May 09, 2017, 01:54:07 PM
 #8

Isn't 3% left in your account is too small? There is nothing much after you sold 97% of your bitcoin.

What I follow on my altcoins is I sell 10% every 2x of the amount. So if I bought at 20, at 40 I will sell 10%. Then another 10% on 80, 160, 320, 640 and so on. But I only follow this if I believe that the altcoin I am holding have great potential.

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May 09, 2017, 02:08:42 PM
 #9

People new to Bitcoin may want to consider the 3 Bitcoin Rule (3% of total), since investors unfamiliar with Bitcoin have many stories involving mistakes of selling too early, or jumping in at the wrong time due to the panic of missing a trend.  I met one of the smartest bitcoinaires at a meetup in downtown Dallas, who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade. However, seller’s remorse can happen and we can mitigate it by simply following this 3 Bitcoin Rule: always keep a minimum of 3% of your bitcoin total (so 3 if you have 100).  In our minds, we’ve “lost” these forever, so we don’t debate whether we made a mistake when we sold some or not.

Traders who have more experience may find this rule inappropriate, but for people new to bitcoin, this has done well over time.

I have a better rule. I keep 50% of my coins in cold storage, and don't plan to access them until 2030.
These coins are not going to be sold at short term peaks/valleys, and are my bet for long-term wealth creation.

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May 09, 2017, 02:19:35 PM
 #10

I have a better rule. I keep 50% of my coins in cold storage, and don't plan to access them until 2030.
These coins are not going to be sold at short term peaks/valleys, and are my bet for long-term wealth creation.

a few have the 50% rule

only invest an amount that if 50% was lost, wont make you want to commit suicide.

if the price doubles and you really need the funds, sell half (meaning 100% ROI while keeping half as bitcoin)

if that remaining half doubles. sell half of the remainder.. keep half (25% of original stash sell 25% of original stash keep)
if that remaining half doubles. sell half of the remainder.. keep half (12.5% of original stash sell 12.5% of original stash keep)

but only sell if you really need the funds or you think you can use the funds to buy in cheaper later if its just an obvious speculative spike

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May 09, 2017, 02:53:08 PM
 #11

who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade
We get it, he is early adopter, good for him, but the fact that he he interacted in Satoshi is not all that all that impressive.
He couldn't understand the significance of this encounter at that time anyway.

The regret of spending bitcoin too soon should be called "Bitcoin pizza syndrome". I expect that it is something almost all of us will feel in the future.
I too spent bitcoin when it was worth 1/5 of its current price.



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May 09, 2017, 02:58:26 PM
 #12

I think one of the things you should also do is to keep these bitcoins on paper wallets. The urge to sell bitcoins when the price spikes like this is

very attractive, and if you had those coins on a exchange .... you might quickly do it without thinking about it. If you had to go through all the

trouble to sweep these paper wallets, you might not want to go through all that effort and you will avoid the risk of selling all your coins. I keep

80%+ of my coins in cold storage like paper wallets and it worked for me.  Wink

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May 09, 2017, 03:03:11 PM
 #13

Why 3% ?

Better use the same value as suggested for the economist as how much you should save every month for personal savings, that is, at least 10%, if possible 20%+. It is usual to save 50% in some parts of the world.

3% will only give you some money and feeling you could have much more if you spared just a little more


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BrewMaster
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May 09, 2017, 05:11:46 PM
 #14

I have a better rule. I keep 50% of my coins in cold storage, and don't plan to access them until 2030.
These coins are not going to be sold at short term peaks/valleys, and are my bet for long-term wealth creation.

a few have the 50% rule

only invest an amount that if 50% was lost, wont make you want to commit suicide.

if the price doubles and you really need the funds, sell half (meaning 100% ROI while keeping half as bitcoin)

if that remaining half doubles. sell half of the remainder.. keep half (25% of original stash sell 25% of original stash keep)
if that remaining half doubles. sell half of the remainder.. keep half (12.5% of original stash sell 12.5% of original stash keep)

but only sell if you really need the funds or you think you can use the funds to buy in cheaper later if its just an obvious speculative spike

i don't have the habit of clicking on random links so i don't know what OP is talking about with his 3% rule but this makes sense. and i am kinda doing this too.
mostly with my altcoin trading, i keep my investment and take out the profit, but things are easy in altcoin market as you get the 50%+ so soon.
i have to add this one to the details of my investment Smiley

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May 09, 2017, 05:14:45 PM
 #15

Who sells Bitcoins will always regret about it later when the currency price hits high amounts. I think the 3% rule is too low, we should hold at least 50% of our amount in BTCs for the future.  Smiley

If possible, even more... Especially for who doesn't have much money to invest and don't have a good money income. Holding BTCs you are taking care of your future, to have a confortable life later.

ETFbitcoin
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May 09, 2017, 05:19:02 PM
 #16

Don't confuse new bitcoin investors/users with your own rule, i would rather give them common advice such as learn more about bitcoin price/history, use common rule "only invest what you can afford to lose" and beware with FUD/hype.
And i can't agree that 3% rule had done well over time.

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May 09, 2017, 05:30:41 PM
 #17

Don't agree mutch on the 3 % your giving right here, it's impeccable timing yes we know that now right?
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May 09, 2017, 05:30:58 PM
 #18

People new to Bitcoin may want to consider the 3 Bitcoin Rule (3% of total), since investors unfamiliar with Bitcoin have many stories involving mistakes of selling too early, or jumping in at the wrong time due to the panic of missing a trend.  I met one of the smartest bitcoinaires at a meetup in downtown Dallas, who interacted with Satoshi on the bitcoin forums and was one of the earliest adopters.  He sold his bitcoins to pay for student loans and felt regret at selling the too early, even though I would argue he made a good trade. However, seller’s remorse can happen and we can mitigate it by simply following this 3 Bitcoin Rule: always keep a minimum of 3% of your bitcoin total (so 3 if you have 100).  In our minds, we’ve “lost” these forever, so we don’t debate whether we made a mistake when we sold some or not.

Traders who have more experience may find this rule inappropriate, but for people new to bitcoin, this has done well over time.

That 3 bitcoin rule may make sense to the newbies, but not to the experienced people who are tracking bitcoin’s price trend from some time. We can use this 3 bitcoin rule just to save ourselves from future regrets and nothing else. But may I know, why 3 only and why not any other value??

I regret that I didn’t adopt bitcoin at an earlier stage even after having such opportunity. Finally when I started investing in bitcoin, the price was standing at 450 USD. I could have made myself a millionaire by now if I had adopted it earlier.

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May 09, 2017, 05:34:33 PM
 #19

I like the 50% rule or take out profits and keep the seed money to 'play' with.
Kubra Dam
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May 09, 2017, 05:40:28 PM
 #20

Good method, but the amount that you might risk depends on your characters. Some of my friends have seventy or eighty percent of their total money in bitcoin and altcoins, approximately equivalent to thousands of dollars.

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