Market is going to dump on you at some point

[Viper1]

Let's define terms, we're talking about breaking of the Great Crypto Bull market that started in the winter of 2016/17, right?

Well, this breaking is not going to happen this month. There is a possibility it will happen at year-end.

Price corrections (some as big as 33-50%) will be happening all the time though as the bull is hard to ride, it tends to throw away those who don't hold tight.

Segwit has roughly 6 more months to activate but the outcome of this "war" will probably be known before that. My gut says 3-4 months and then things will really start to change across the board.

Bitcoin is too big to change: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1908585

Not sure what your point is other than maybe you're simply saying they shouldn't touch it. But they are and they will... Which then invokes your other statement which is what I was alluding to.

Segwit is a huge change of the protocol, it will undermine investors confidence and send the price plummeting. Unlimited blocks is also not safe. Investors are cautious. Upgrade Bitcoin to Segwit or to BU and it will lose relevance very quickly.

Personally, I think if "segwit" loses, all hell will break loose while segwit "winning" will be less disruptive (there will still be some) but we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[1715487445]

1715487445

[dinofelis]

Bubble bubble bubble, what bubble are talking about? 1929 or 2008? if so cryptocurrencies have more than 10years before that big bubble.

In the meantime we are in very small bubbles sometimes because the crypto market is new and so small.

"99% of the people around me laugh when I speak about criptocurrencies. There is nobody inside this new asset class. How can we live in a bubble if 99% of the people I know do not even know what is this blockchain technology about? I think you are confusing high volatility with a bubble. Of course we will see eventually a bubble, but it will be a bubble when your taxi driver tells you how good is buying bitcoin! That will be the time to jump!" Said someone, and i'm with him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble
"An economic bubble or asset bubble (sometimes also referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania, or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value."

or a better explanation from investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp
"A bubble is an economic cycle characterized by rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction. It is created by a surge in asset prices unwarranted by the fundamentals of the asset and driven by exuberant market behavior. When no more investors are willing to buy at the elevated price, a massive selloff occurs, causing the bubble to deflate."

a bubble has nothing to do with whether or not people around you know about that asset. it is all about price and how that price reached the current inflated state. and the two above descriptions match the situation in altcoin market 100%.
- price went up rapidly : check
- exceeding the  intrinsic value of altcoins : check
- followed by a dump : check
- history of these altcoins being pump and dump : check

But this is true of bitcoin also, only on a larger scale.  There's no fundamental difference.  Bitcoin's economic value as a currency is only on the percent-level of its market cap.  It is tens of times over-valued if that is the fundamental.

[AtomicDog602]

A bubble is a bubble.  A market gets hot and all sorts of new money comes in to take advantage, often these less savvy investors are the same ones that sell off and run away when things turn sour, causing a market to implode.  Seen the story play out again and again.

Not saying one can't make money in a market running up, but don't be left without a chair when the music stops.

[groko271]

I'm sick of all the current bursting bubble threads. Why not just post in the many other ones instead of creating another. Makes me wonder about motive.

However,  he OP is most likely correct, as we've seen it before.

My observations are:
- I know 3 people who are now investing in crypto ,  from btc to ripple, not knowing I have been into crypto for about 8yrs. This is an interesting development and maybe the tip of the iceberg. 

- there's  a lot of new investors converting fiat>btc<>alts. This is part the reason for the recent demand and rise in btc price.

- those like me who have hodled btc  from the early days can afford to spread a few btc  across the shitcoin markets in the hope of another good investment. Personally I don't play the market but layout some investment across some alt projects I believe in.  If they all fall to shit  (like the bubble bursting cheer squad Are saying) I don't care,  because btc is still king.

- I think some alts will survive to be good value one day,  picking which ones will is the real test.

[dissident]

Meh... We're only at the peak of the bubble when people stop calling a bubble... When everyone is a full on bull, that's when the bubble is close to a peak.  Still way too many people including me "calling" a bubble and being bearish.

I still remember the dot com bubble.  Nobody back then at the end was calling a bubble. It was true flaming bullishness.

[kryptqnick]

right now there is a bubble but there is also some denial in the altcoin market.
prices have gone up super fast and super big. now they need to come down in a dump, we already saw some massive dump take place. but people are associating it with poloniex being down, but it actually is the other way around, the altcoins got dumped and polo went down because of it!
we will surely see many dead cat bounces all around the market to get some more victims but eventually they all end up dumping after they lost a good amount of money and they started facing the reality.

Which coins are dumping? Ethereum is now 89$ which is still good. Litecoin is going up and approaching 2 billion dollars of market capitalization. Even dash and monero are still going up. I believe dump is not there yet. And what will start happening is not a dump but rather a stabilization. Good coins will be distinguished more from bad ones and the prices will stop changing that fast. It will just become harder to manipulate alts' prices.

[fortunecrypto]

That's a certainty.

Of course what comes down up at some point will come down,this is what makes trading exciting you never know when it;s going to happen,you must have a hint when it's going to happen,that is why trading is not for the weak in heart and are not risk taker.

[ratatatat]

Maybe worth mentioning: 2013 and 2014 bubbles had higher interest from the www in general - and marketcap is much higher now than it was back then.
Currently interest in btc is half as big as it was on the peak in 2013/14 and only 2/3 from the bubble in early 2013.  
Look, Litecoin had much higher interest in 2013/14 than Ethereum has now.



Don't think there's no risk. It might be overvalued already. Ethereum and LTC certainly are overvalued aswell as ripple, nem and many other alts.

just my 2satoshi

[gribble]

Depends on the type of coin you invest in.

Yes and depend on the ways of investments long or short investments
the markets goes dump and pump are good to testing the trend of price,
 they are needed by all of ecosystem especially for the traders altcoins are like me
we just need the right altcoins to investing into there.

[Stell]

Bubble bubble bubble, what bubble are talking about? 1929 or 2008? if so cryptocurrencies have more than 10years before that big bubble.

In the meantime we are in very small bubbles sometimes because the crypto market is new and so small.

"99% of the people around me laugh when I speak about criptocurrencies. There is nobody inside this new asset class. How can we live in a bubble if 99% of the people I know do not even know what is this blockchain technology about? I think you are confusing high volatility with a bubble. Of course we will see eventually a bubble, but it will be a bubble when your taxi driver tells you how good is buying bitcoin! That will be the time to jump!" Said someone, and i'm with him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble
"An economic bubble or asset bubble (sometimes also referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania, or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value."

or a better explanation from investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp
"A bubble is an economic cycle characterized by rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction. It is created by a surge in asset prices unwarranted by the fundamentals of the asset and driven by exuberant market behavior. When no more investors are willing to buy at the elevated price, a massive selloff occurs, causing the bubble to deflate."

a bubble has nothing to do with whether or not people around you know about that asset. it is all about price and how that price reached the current inflated state. and the two above descriptions match the situation in altcoin market 100%.
- price went up rapidly : check
- exceeding the  intrinsic value of altcoins : check
- followed by a dump : check
- history of these altcoins being pump and dump : check

Yup there's a bubble people have been moving back into Bitcoin now from the Altcoins only look at times like there moving up because thier paired against bitcoin who's price has moved up ! and people have figured this out so now people are buying Bitcoin so Bitcoin is rising by people leaving alt coins plus people buying bit coin because it's going to rise Pretty crazy. Just think of what the price Bitcoin will be as all the market caps from Alts go into Bitcoin. The problem is the volume in alt coins have been decreasing because The Alt market topped out. and with no buyers to sell too people are loosing money and opting out as they do this Bitcoin sores. The new money moving into Bitcoin is not enough to move the alt markets but with only sixteen million bitcoins the price sores. There will be a huge bear market in Alts and a bull market in Bitcoin until the amount that goes into Bitcoin can support the volume needed to put a floor in Alt prices until then people will continue to move out of Alts. And Bitcoins prices are truly supported by volume giving more reason to hold Bitcoin over alts. And as Bitcoin surges the price becomes more parabolic.

[Stell]

Maybe worth mentioning: 2013 and 2014 bubbles had higher interest from the www in general - and marketcap is much higher now than it was back then.
Currently interest in btc is half as big as it was on the peak in 2013/14 and only 2/3 from the bubble in early 2013.  
Look, Litecoin had much higher interest in 2013/14 than Ethereum has now.

https://i.imgur.com/W6K1WVq.png

Don't think there's no risk. It might be overvalued already. Ethereum and LTC certainly are overvalued aswell as ripple, nem and many other alts.

just my 2satoshi

I didn't want to bring it up just yet but I remember this. All I'm going to say is if you hold Bitcoin you make money as people opt out. The top in Bitcoin hasn't happened yet. but the signs of a bear market and Top in the Alt market has ! People are blind to what's going on back in 2013/14 People lost thousands of dollars it was crazy. Could you ad ripple to this. Ripple was another one. I think it's market cap got to 4bilion before The crash.

[Stell]

right now there is a bubble but there is also some denial in the altcoin market.
prices have gone up super fast and super big. now they need to come down in a dump, we already saw some massive dump take place. but people are associating it with poloniex being down, but it actually is the other way around, the altcoins got dumped and polo went down because of it!
we will surely see many dead cat bounces all around the market to get some more victims but eventually they all end up dumping after they lost a good amount of money and they started facing the reality.

Which coins are dumping? Ethereum is now 89$ which is still good. Litecoin is going up and approaching 2 billion dollars of market capitalization. Even dash and monero are still going up. I believe dump is not there yet. And what will start happening is not a dump but rather a stabilization. Good coins will be distinguished more from bad ones and the prices will stop changing that fast. It will just become harder to manipulate alts' prices.

No they don't get distinguished from bad ones. The Crypto currency market is different then the stockmarket.
All the coins go to nearly zero because you don't know if the Government will shut everything down so people don't put all the money back in for years until their certain. It's a huge risk who will put ten thousand dollars into a coin after a crash not knowing if the government will shut everything down. That's why if you look at the chart the prices were rediculously low for all those years.

[izanagi narukami]

I can see that most altcoin dump at the moment meanwhile bitcoin continue to increase everyday.
I think altcoin still adapting on bitcoin value which I'm very amaze to see current value for bitcoin.

Keep hold guys !

[CraigWrightBTC]

I don't have any problem with market is going down, it is just about how to make analysis of price
and what will be done if the trend of price is going down,
if the markets is still going down, i never trading altcoins until there is signal the markets starts going up
 or if i have made wrong prediction and open positions, it is time to cut lost.

[Spoetnik]

right now there is a bubble but there is also some denial in the altcoin market.
prices have gone up super fast and super big. now they need to come down in a dump, we already saw some massive dump take place. but people are associating it with poloniex being down, but it actually is the other way around, the altcoins got dumped and polo went down because of it!
we will surely see many dead cat bounces all around the market to get some more victims but eventually they all end up dumping after they lost a good amount of money and they started facing the reality.

Sounds about right to me.

Lets not forget the buying of Altcoins was because of the lure of profits.
So follow the chain..
New guy shows up, then he buys BTC (so he can buy ALT's for ROI's)
That causes BTC to soar higher..
When the momentum swings the other way with Altcoins the stampede will dry up.

I seen this in late 2013.
A boom of users flocked here and bought anything not nailed down.
They didn't care what.
But it came crashing down eventually.

The reality is if a group of guys walk into a room with money only a couple will walk out with most of it.

Your grandiose profits guys are the money taken straight out of MANY other users wallets.
Where the hell do you all think these huge profits come from ?
They come from a LOT of guys losing small amounts combing into a larger gain for you !
It's a deadly simple math and.. a mathematical certainty.

I seen a science TV show that show cased a scientific formula for the process.
It resembled boiling water.
It's been pointed out how all of human history has repeated this formula too.
Countries that started over and had all the money divided up equally quickly had the 1% hold all the wealth.
It's the way of life in every aspect and undeniable and unavoidable.
It's pretty much entropy.
It's like trying to stop the universe from expanding (a form of entropy)

Most of you will be losers and that is a fact.
Some will profit.
Some will break even and even fewer will walk away a winner at the Altcoin Casino.

Who's staying at the table ?
All it takes is a blow of the wind and momentum will swing the other way.
Then the hoards will super dump in pure panic.
And all this soaring Altcoins action can not be sustained.

There will be dumping.

[aguila]

If only we knew when... FOMO is keeping people in, we don't want to get away from this returns.

[ridery99]

i hope peolple will sell before the giant dump happens... support is already vanishing and market is moving into a panic state im not a fudder truss me basend on a real world analysis i believe this correction is just the beginning of the longest bear market in the history of crypto currencies. there will be blood on the streets and alt bubble is about to pop... wish i had sold all at the top yesterday

[dinofelis]

right now there is a bubble but there is also some denial in the altcoin market.
prices have gone up super fast and super big. now they need to come down in a dump, we already saw some massive dump take place. but people are associating it with poloniex being down, but it actually is the other way around, the altcoins got dumped and polo went down because of it!
we will surely see many dead cat bounces all around the market to get some more victims but eventually they all end up dumping after they lost a good amount of money and they started facing the reality.

Sounds about right to me.

Lets not forget the buying of Altcoins was because of the lure of profits.

Like the buying of bitcoin.  No difference.

[coinplus]

I think there will not be a correction on altcoin prices. Yes it has been going up steadily overtime but I believe after all the dust settles and bitcoin prices gets back to lower prices (I suppose around 1200 would be normal) and altcoin prices fluctuates a bit more.

There will be at least 50% marketshare of altcoins compared to 50% bitcoin. It was 70%+ just couple months ago. I think it can go even further in time.

[Ayers]

I can see that most altcoin dump at the moment meanwhile bitcoin continue to increase everyday.
I think altcoin still adapting on bitcoin value which I'm very amaze to see current value for bitcoin.

Keep hold guys !

they are on the same line bitcoin is getting a little dumped now, probably a price correction, and altcoin, too are in price correction area now, everyone know that at some point dump are healthy to redistribute the wealth, you can't think that the value will increase indefinitely withotu a break, this would be stupid lol