Deleted

[rikur]

Auction closed.

[monkeynuts]

72 ... They have a premium sure. But its not that high

You are also looking at a limited pool of buyers with a fat enough wallet to buy

[Chainsaw]

Not a lot of these have traded hands.

Here's a successful auction of a BitBill from January.
In its case, the item fetched a 135% premium over spot value.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1747782.0

Note the mintage information shared on-page.
You can see how much rarer their mintages are than the initial Casascius offerings.


Here was a thread where we had a price discovery discussion. Minerjones, you were involved then too.  At that point, a 50% premium (54 BTC for the 36 BTC spot) seems equally uncomfortable for buyer and seller.

price discovery thread

I have two sets, and have always planned to sell one, and keep the other.
There is something cool about knowing a bunch of MIT guys designed these things in the early days of Bitcoin, and the cards hold some of those oldest coins.

I wish you the best of luck on your auction - watching with interest!

[digicoinuser]

That's an epic set, looking forward to the photos but I feel like double face value may be hard to achieve.   

[monkeynuts]

135% Premium was on a 1 BTC card. That same premium definately would not multiply up to higher denom cards

1.35BTC premium over face for a single card may be more like it. Sets you a low tide mark of 5.4 BTC premium over face across the 4 ie 41.4 BTC

That kind of lines up with the last auction for a full set (which was a link from the price discovery thread)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191292.msg1982259#msg1982259
This closed at 41 BTC

https://duosear.ch/@bcg/listing/1b1e242a911971d4222272db1eb96dd3c5b75b39
Has a set listed at 54 BTC, and this one has been listed for a while, so hasnt tempted any buyers

So It would seem it needs to be lower than 54 BTC to get a bite. Just my opinion, but seems to be shared by the market.

(Not that I am trying to run these down. I have a 1 BTC bitbill that I would sell at 135% premium !   )

[wheelz1200]

That's an epic set, looking forward to the photos but I feel like double face value may be hard to achieve.   

Without a larger collector base (still very niche) the premiums i think will keep getting squeezed down as btc goes up in value.  72btc is not something you will likely see as a selling point.  Since these dont come up often i expect a decent premium but very small group of people who can now afford it.  Good luck with your sale (you might end up finding more buyers if you broke the set up)

[Chainsaw]

135% Premium was on a 1 BTC card. That same premium definately would not multiply up to higher denom cards

1.35BTC premium over face for a single card may be more like it. Sets you a low tide mark of 5.4 BTC premium over face across the 4 ie 41.4 BTC

That kind of lines up with the last auction for a full set (which was a link from the price discovery thread)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=191292.msg1982259#msg1982259
This closed at 41 BTC (Four years ago.)

https://duosear.ch/@bcg/listing/1b1e242a911971d4222272db1eb96dd3c5b75b39
Has a set listed at 54 BTC, and this one has been listed for a while, so hasnt tempted any buyers

So It would seem it needs to be lower than 54 BTC to get a bite. Just my opinion, but seems to be shared by the market.

(Not that I am trying to run these down. I have a 1 BTC bitbill that I would sell at 135% premium !   )

Thanks nuts, that helps narrow things in.
Floor - 41 BTC
Ceiling - 54 BTC

Recent premium 35%. For whole-set, that'd be 48 BTC.
I guess given all that, if it were me, I'd take 48 without negotiation. Absent such an offer, maybe start an auction at 41 w/ 0.1 BTC increments?

[Blazed]

I recently sold a 10BTC BitBill and the premium was not 2x face for sure... Your best bet is to break up the set as it only limits your potential buyers these days. I am interested in a couple of them depending on prices.

[HabBear]

Note the mintage information shared on-page.
You can see how much rarer their mintages are than the initial Casascius offerings.

Which came first - Casascius or Bit Bill? I suppose the earliest funding would answer that question. The link you provided has that Bit Bill funded in May 2011. When was the earliest Casascius funding in 2011?

I disagree with @MonkeyNuts blanket statement that the lowest denomination card would command the highest premium. The only variable you're considering is the fiat conversion of the premium, which completely omits key factors in numismatic value. The same premium across all cards isn't realistic either, but diminishing returns on higher value cards goes agains most principles in valuing collector items. But I do agree with how Monkeynuts arrives at a potential range based only on previous successful and unsuccessful sales.

It's a shame that as BTC continues to get stronger to fiat the premiums of these coins start to drop. It proves that most of us aren't willing to accept bitcoin as a stand alone currency. Hell, there's plenty of bitcoin millionaires on this forum...all you need is 600 coins!

Put this thing up for auction with a private reserve. You reserve the right to refuse the highest bid if it doesn't meet your highest reserve. Maybe put the highest reserve amount in escrow so a third party can verify that that it has or has not been met.

Let the market decide!

[monkeynuts]

Which came first - Casascius or Bit Bill? I suppose the earliest funding would answer that question. The link you provided has that Bit Bill funded in May 2011. When was the earliest Casascius funding in 2011?

I disagree with @MonkeyNuts blanket statement that the lowest denomination card would command the highest premium. The only variable you're considering is the fiat conversion of the premium, which completely omits key factors in numismatic value. The same premium across all cards isn't realistic either, but diminishing returns on higher value cards goes agains most principles in valuing collector items. But I do agree with how Monkeynuts arrives at a potential range based only on previous successful and unsuccessful sales.

It's a shame that as BTC continues to get stronger to fiat the premiums of these coins start to drop. It proves that most of us aren't willing to accept bitcoin as a stand alone currency. Hell, there's plenty of bitcoin millionaires on this forum...all you need is 600 coins!

Put this thing up for auction with a private reserve. You reserve the right to refuse the highest bid if it doesn't meet your highest reserve. Maybe put the highest reserve amount in escrow so a third party can verify that that it has or has not been met.

Let the market decide!

Bitbills came first

HabBear, you misunderstand me. I am looking at premiuims over the face value of the cards. I havent said that the premium for a 1 BTC is greatest. I suggested they were all the same (ie 4 X 1.35 = 5.4 premium over face value for the set). The reality is that the higher denoms were (I assume) rarer, so may command a higher premium ... but the number of people who could buy them is reduced, which means it would probably balance out. I am not considering FIAT conversion in any way.

[wheelz1200]

Which came first - Casascius or Bit Bill? I suppose the earliest funding would answer that question. The link you provided has that Bit Bill funded in May 2011. When was the earliest Casascius funding in 2011?

I disagree with @MonkeyNuts blanket statement that the lowest denomination card would command the highest premium. The only variable you're considering is the fiat conversion of the premium, which completely omits key factors in numismatic value. The same premium across all cards isn't realistic either, but diminishing returns on higher value cards goes agains most principles in valuing collector items. But I do agree with how Monkeynuts arrives at a potential range based only on previous successful and unsuccessful sales.

It's a shame that as BTC continues to get stronger to fiat the premiums of these coins start to drop. It proves that most of us aren't willing to accept bitcoin as a stand alone currency. Hell, there's plenty of bitcoin millionaires on this forum...all you need is 600 coins!

Put this thing up for auction with a private reserve. You reserve the right to refuse the highest bid if it doesn't meet your highest reserve. Maybe put the highest reserve amount in escrow so a third party can verify that that it has or has not been met.

Let the market decide!

Bitbills came first

HabBear, you misunderstand me. I am looking at premiuims over the face value of the cards. I havent said that the premium for a 1 BTC is greatest. I suggested they were all the same (ie 4 X 1.35 = 5.4 premium over face value for the set). The reality is that the higher denoms were (I assume) rarer, so may command a higher premium ... but the number of people who could buy them is reduced, which means it would probably balance out. I am not considering FIAT conversion in any way.

Lower denoms = higher % premium holds true, there might be a couple outlier sales, but look at the last 2 single bitbill sales for the 1btc.  First was over 2btc and the second in the 1.6btc range.....you arent getting double for a 20btc bill.  Same applys with casascius. The tenths % wise carries the most premiums, walk all the ways up to a 25btc cas and the premium tops out around 10% over face.  Keep going upwards and its not going to get any bigger.

[Chainsaw]

They're significantly rarer than most of the Casascius mintages:

From a previous auction:

how rare BitBills are:
20BTC: 181 (132 intact)
10BTC: 143 (97 intact)
5BTC: 144 (107 intact)
1BTC: 589 (492 intact)

Note that while 5/6th of the original 1 BTC remain...only 2/3 of the larger denominations remain.

This same cannibalization effect holds true in Casascius. Look at redemption values of 0.1 versus 100 BTC pieces.

The larger pieces become rarer, so long as you can hold it and never become one of the people forced to sell.

They are certainly an investment for a subset of collectors.
Look at casascius interest this month, compared to the last several years.
As prices rise, the candidate buyer set for 'key date' specimens changes. More disposable income becomes available, and hedges and sub-investments gain greater demand with the same supply.

Fun to watch price discovery settle in on this. A bit surprised to see 42 get picked from within the 41-48 range...I don't expect it to last too long!

[greenplastic]

Ouch!

Interested in selling the redeemed cards? 

Do you still have the holograms?

Auction closed. It was easier to cut the cards open and dump the Bitcoin Cash for similar gain.

[krogothmanhattan]

Sent you a PM

[FFrankie]

Auction closed. It was easier to cut the cards open and dump the Bitcoin Cash for similar gain.

Wow. I think if your asking price wasn't so high you could have gotten more than face value +the BCC value

[bg002h]

Auction closed. It was easier to cut the cards open and dump the Bitcoin Cash for similar gain.

I did the same with my full set.

[greenplastic]

Aww, another bites the dust. 

Auction closed. It was easier to cut the cards open and dump the Bitcoin Cash for similar gain.

I did the same with my full set.