Is this a Fourth ASIC supplier?

[Minor Miner]

If you look at the network, there is a chunk of capacity (between 8-10 TH/s) that cannot be explained.
BFL has shipped a negligible amount thus far, FriedCat openly announces his daily roll out, Avalon batch one is accounted for and we know that the amount of FPGAs added in the last month cannot even explain 1 TH/s of this unaccounted for increase. 
So, does that mean there is another ASIC that has entered the market but is mining?
For perspective, this is the equivalent of 675-800 of ASICminer's blades or around 125-150 Avalons.  This is a large amount of hardware no matter how you look at it.
Thoughts on where it came from?

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[matthewh3]

With the rapid price increase this spring many GPU's are still being fired up.

[Minor Miner]

With the rapid price increase this spring many GPU's are still being fired up.

I thought about that and put in 2TH for non asics getting turned on in the last month which is a LOT when you figure it out.   So, I do not believe you can make a credible argument for 10-12TH/s of GPUs and FPGAs getting turned on in the last 30 days.   It took two years to turn on 18TH/s of these.

[matthewh3]

With the rapid price increase this spring many GPU's are still being fired up.

I thought about that and put in 2TH for non asics getting turned on in the last month which is a LOT when you figure it out.   So, I do not believe you can make a credible argument for 10-12TH/s of GPUs and FPGAs getting turned on in the last 30 days.   It took two years to turn on 18TH/s of these.

Yeah but have you seen how much bitcoin mining is being talked about on the internet now compared to the 2011 bubble plus spot is very high now.  There could be a private ASIC project tho.

[atcsecure]

It's Avalon batch#2 and #3


Avalon is mining them

[relm9]

It's Avalon batch#2 and #3


Avalon is mining them

Could as easily be BFL. I would suspect them more than Avalon.

[Minor Miner]

It's Avalon batch#2 and #3
Avalon is mining them

Could as easily be BFL...

It cannot be BFL unless they are really good fakers.   They can barely get the 5GH/s miners working let alone have 5,000 of them mining for them.
I did not think someone like avalon would mine on hardware that is not rightfully their own as they seem to be very principled.   What got me concerned about that was a Hero member's (kano) post basically accusing avalon of either running off with the money OR mining with their customer's units today.    I do not know the history between avalon and Kano but kano seems to be pretty respected as a developer.

Edit: and I will add the disturbing question about that 23 year old ...
Where are the almost $2mil worth of hardware people have paid for and are still waiting for?
(They've only shipped ~300 devices in more than 3 months ...)
Are they mining on them (the least worrisome) or have they disappeared altogether (the most worrisome but least likely possibility)

[mrb]

I thought about that and put in 2TH for non asics getting turned on in the last month which is a LOT when you figure it out.   So, I do not believe you can make a credible argument for 10-12TH/s of GPUs and FPGAs getting turned on in the last 30 days.   It took two years to turn on 18TH/s of these.

Actually, yes, it is most likely GPUs. You failed to look at the right historical data. Between May and July 2011, we went from ~1 Thash/s to ~15 Thash/s in just 2 months, and it was 99% GPUs.

Because the Bitcoin bubble and publicity is even more intense this time, it is not only plausible, but IMHO the most likely explanation, that 10-12 Thash/s of GPUs went online.

[Syke]

Because the Bitcoin bubble and publicity is even more intense this time, it is not only plausible, but IMHO the most likely explanation, that 10-12 Thash/s of GPUs went online.

Definitely. And with the efficiency of 7xxx cards, it takes a lot fewer cards to reach 10 TH/s than before.

[Minor Miner]

I thought about that and put in 2TH for non asics getting turned on in the last month which is a LOT when you figure it out.   So, I do not believe you can make a credible argument for 10-12TH/s of GPUs and FPGAs getting turned on in the last 30 days.   It took two years to turn on 18TH/s of these.

Actually, yes, it is most likely GPUs. You failed to look at the right historical data. Between May and July 2011, we went from ~1 Thash/s to ~15 Thash/s in just 2 months, and it was 99% GPUs.
Because the Bitcoin bubble and publicity is even more intense this time, it is not only plausible, but IMHO the most likely explanation, that 10-12 Thash/s of GPUs went online.

But that means there are 25,000 more cards out there so thousands of new miners.   Does the data on how many people are users on each pool support this?   Is there any way to check?

[Bitsaurus]

I thought about that and put in 2TH for non asics getting turned on in the last month which is a LOT when you figure it out.   So, I do not believe you can make a credible argument for 10-12TH/s of GPUs and FPGAs getting turned on in the last 30 days.   It took two years to turn on 18TH/s of these.

Actually, yes, it is most likely GPUs. You failed to look at the right historical data. Between May and July 2011, we went from ~1 Thash/s to ~15 Thash/s in just 2 months, and it was 99% GPUs.
Because the Bitcoin bubble and publicity is even more intense this time, it is not only plausible, but IMHO the most likely explanation, that 10-12 Thash/s of GPUs went online.

But that means there are 25,000 more cards out there so thousands of new miners.   Does the data on how many people are users on each pool support this?   Is there any way to check?

Look at the violin graphs on OOCs pool review posts.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

It's Avalon batch#2 and #3
Avalon is mining them

Could as easily be BFL...

It cannot be BFL unless they are really good fakers.   They can barely get the 5GH/s miners working let alone have 5,000 of them mining for them.
I did not think someone like avalon would mine on hardware that is not rightfully their own as they seem to be very principled.   What got me concerned about that was a Hero member's (kano) post basically accusing avalon of either running off with the money OR mining with their customer's units today.    I do not know the history between avalon and Kano but kano seems to be pretty respected as a developer.

Edit: and I will add the disturbing question about that 23 year old ...
Where are the almost $2mil worth of hardware people have paid for and are still waiting for?
(They've only shipped ~300 devices in more than 3 months ...)
Are they mining on them (the least worrisome) or have they disappeared altogether (the most worrisome but least likely possibility)

I, too, am curious about Kano's post. Any insight, anybody?

[johnyj]

Avalon final testing before shipping

[seleme]

Avalon final testing before shipping

Lol, is there more profitable testing then that one 

[dan99]

Probably Josh is doing some mining before he ship out those butterflies