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来来来,干了“巴菲特”这碗“财富鸡汤”
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Topic: 来来来,干了“巴菲特”这碗“财富鸡汤” (Read 125 times)
akkocoin
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来来来,干了“巴菲特”这碗“财富鸡汤”
May 11, 2017, 06:25:18 AM
#1
“投资哲学”只能是“见仁见智”,对股票“买入”与“卖出”一瞬间所带来的投资盈亏并无多少实际价值。
美国东部时间7日早晨,沃伦·巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司52周年股东大会召开。全世界投资者的节日——每年一度的“巴菲特股东大会”上都会挤满几万名来自世界各地的忠实信徒,会场内外无数人渴望在股神的发言中捕捉到发财真经。今年4万人的会场座无虚席,中国人占1/8以上,巴菲特股东大会唯一提供的同声传译就是中文。
事实上,中国投资者都希望成为“中国巴菲特”。有钱的大佬为了与巴菲特共进午餐花费数十万美金,没有钱的小散们则从书店、网络上研读一切有关巴菲特的资料,他的“金句”、传记、思维、案例等。但最终,你真的成了“中国巴菲特”吗?犹如一碗励志鸡汤,如果喝了也没有“成功”,概不负责。
2017年巴菲特股东大会结束后,有媒体总结了这场7小时的股东问答金句。比如,关于什么样的公司值得买,巴菲特说:要思考大概5到20年的时间里,这家公司会不会还具备现在的竞争优势,是否有足以让人信任的领导层,当然还有企业文化和价格因素。
实际上,这与被人广为诟病的成功学一样,甚至可称为“有用的废话”。所谓“有用”,是因为都是一些有关“价值投资”等百般适用的大道理;所谓“废话”,是因为“成功无法复制,失败往往相同”。历年大会上被投资者奉为“投资真经”的“金句”,都没有逃出这个“套路”。
那么,巴菲特“私人小灶”炖出来的“创富鸡汤”,是否又会有所不同?“巴菲特午饭”享有“世界上最贵重的午饭”之名,3名中国人曾与巴菲特单独共进午餐。
2006年段永平参与竞拍出于敬意或可暂且不论度。“私募教父”赵丹阳则是专为求取真经,其以211万美元价格竞得午餐,但材料显现,2010年赵丹阳掌握的赤子之心自然挑选基金全年回报率为-8.26%,2011年这一亏本起伏扩展至-24.79%。2015年赵丹阳在A股的两只商品赤子之心价值和赤子之心生长的收益率分别为12.07%和-3.04%,跑输了同期上证指数9.41%的涨幅。
至2015年,天神文娱董事长朱晔以1500万元人民币竞标成功,并发出“大道至简,贵在坚持”的朋友圈。这样的“投资哲学”,其实在我国书店成功学书籍中比比皆是,掌握诸如“贵在坚持”的道理也非难事,但往往是“知易行难”,所谓“听过很多道理,依然过不好这一生”,学习路该怎么走,远不如摔一跤来得实在。
金融最大特征是“信息不对称”和“不确定性”,盈亏从表面上看取决“买卖”一瞬间,但背后成因却千差万别。不仅与宏观经济、金融环境、上市公司治理情况等休戚相关,投资者的心理活动也在影响着股市变化。“投资哲学”只能是“见仁见智”,对股票“买入”与“卖出”一瞬间所带来的投资盈亏并无多少实际价值。
其实,股票“价值投资”的根本前提在于信息充分,在信息不充分情况下挑选股票,8名优秀的股票分析师挑选5种股票,与动物世界中一只大猩猩“投镖”插鱼的业绩相去不远。
对巴菲特而言,他的神话成就于信息相对充分的资本市场。在公司方面,有可口可乐这样透明且业绩持续的公司,否则连续持有25年股票,搞不好就是一张废纸;在市场方面,有公开透明、严谨稳健的监管体系。离开了这两条,巴菲特的投资圣经不过是一碗“财富鸡汤”。
这些年,我国监管层一直朝着信息充分的资本市场在不懈努力。在“价值投资”所必须的“信息充分”还没有到来的今天,我们不妨画饼充饥,先干了“奥马哈先知”这碗“创富鸡汤”。不过,正如有人调侃的,鸡汤最大的问题是,没有给勺。
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来来来,干了“巴菲特”这碗“财富鸡汤”
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