Difficulty Speculation

[Rallye]

So I'm trying to get a reasonable estimate of difficulty in August.  What do you think it will be at by then? 

Assuming Avalon and BFL get all their orders out, where would that put us?  Do we know how many units each company is producing?  Whats a worst case scenario?  Thoughts?

[mgio]

If ALL of them ship by then, I estimate a difficulty of about 200 million or more.

[Bitsaurus]

Avalon and ASICMiner are the 2 biggest ASIC players right now. Depending on how fast BFL can get the 50/60GH miners out the door will determine the difficulty.

Minimum 8x what we have now.  If BFL pumps them out it could be 500 million by August.

[Rallye]

I sure hope not.  80,000,000 I can live with, but 500,000,000 not so much.  I Just bought 592 Avalon chips for 47BTC hoping to get at least 47BTC back by mining.  I guess we'll see, might end up panic selling them to someone to buy back bitcoins.

[bcpokey]

Sorry but there is just no way to get a reasonable estimate.

Avalon has delivered 1 batch, batch 2 is nowhere in sight, no one knows what the status is. Batch 3 will be affected by batch 2, etc. In fact, that's part of what made me reconsider an ASIC chip purchase from avalon. Either way is kind of not good, if their batch 2 is delayed, and their chips ship on time, that's pretty shady for batch buyers, if batch 2 is delayed, and chips are delayed, then everyone loses.

ASICMiner is a big question mark. They've sold off about 60 * 10GH/sec miners (600GH) for a ton of money, whether that prompts them to reinvest into making tons of miners, selling more, or keeping supply low while demand is high, is anyones guess.

BFL is the biggest question mark of all, no one knows how many orders they have, how many refunds are waiting, what their production capability will be (currently they don't even have cases for their products, let alone boards).

We could roll around into August and see a tiny nudge in difficulty (if batch 2 is on the streets, it'd be about 25mil, if batch 2 + 50TH appears from ASICminer maybe 50mil), or if everyone unleashes the kraken, we could see potentially 150 + 100 + 200 + 250 TH added on to the network, which would be about 100mil. The only way we see 500mil is if some magical pixie dust super energizes every ASIC maker, BFL included, all the "up and coming" asic makers turn out to be able to produce and ship a product in 2 months, and new asics are priced at $1 / GH, shipping that day delivered overnight shipping. (500mil is roughly 50x current difficulty, or 3,500TH/sec, almost impossible by August, requires about 2000 BFL minirigs to be delivered).

[Bitsaurus]

Just because somebody isn't talking doesn't mean there's nothing brewing. All it takes is a early miner to sell off 15k coins and that would be enough to fund their own ASIC project.  Where there is $ there is a will, and where there is a will somebody will do it.

[computerparts]

If only I had a btc for every one of these threads that pop up.

[jhansen858]

I'm hoping for less then 300,000,000.  I'm hoping for less then 700,000,000 worst case.

[Lauda]

Not even near 100 milion trust me

[Amph]

50m at max

[mt_bird]

My guess: 34M by Aug 1st.

[btchaver]

I'm hoping for less then 300,000,000.  I'm hoping for less then 700,000,000 worst case.

I dont know how difficulty is calculated but this mumber sound far off to me the second number is ust way to high  i think it will take some time for that to happen or the market would just crash to hard that just cant happen all at once slow change is good all at once could be too much instablility i think im not shure i don know but based on what its been for the last month i cant see it going to 700 million diff in 3 months thats such a big leap how could the price value and everything mend equally with such an abrupt change in difficulty it would drive the price to worthless.

[glendall]

I'd recommend just not counting on anything from BFL when trying to develop difficulty predictions.

I think rationally and logically it would be more accurate to predict that BFL will not ship anything more than 1% of their preorders by August.

Why do I say this? They've been saying they were just about ready to ship back in October and they have consistently lied, or more favorably to them, have shown to be incompetent. Hence, it is more likely this will continue than it is they will ship.

They have no finalized prototype. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to produce in bulk IMHO.

[mgio]

I'd recommend just not counting on anything from BFL when trying to develop difficulty predictions.

I think rationally and logically it would be more accurate to predict that BFL will not ship anything more than 1% of their preorders by August.

Why do I say this? They've been saying they were just about ready to ship back in October and they have consistently lied, or more favorably to them, have shown to be incompetent. Hence, it is more likely this will continue than it is they will ship.

They have no finalized prototype. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to produce in bulk IMHO.

I agree with this now, but it didn't seem that way when this thread was posted.

Right now you have to worry about ASICMiner and Avalon.

Difficulty will soar because of them and by the time BFL gets a product out the door, if they ever do, they won't be worth running.

[Xian01]

Difficulty will soar because of them and by the time BFL gets a product out the door, if they ever do, they won't be worth running.

 What will there be worth running then ? I'm looking for available alternatives. Have already invested in ASICMINER-PT and TAT-ASICMINER, bought 20 Erupter USB sticks to add to my farm, and hope to get in on an Avalon Batch 4 if they create one.

 Or do you think Avalon Batch 4's will be in customer hands before BFL ships in volume ?

[Bitsaurus]

I still see BFL being about 1-2 months away from shipping their 23/30/50/60 miners.  They might be able to put out 20 peppers a day but the singles are still in prototype phase (no testable chips for the new board).

I think ASICMiner is the one to watch rather than Avalon.

Disclaimer:  Have BFL preorder - partial order refund.  Have Avalon B3 coming.

[Bitsaurus]

You do realize that most of you, ASIC miners, will lose more BTC than you will make? I still salute you! Your sacrifice is very important for us all and is very appreciated.

The King returns to the mining subforum 

I was here back on 2010, BTW - had to make a new account single I lost access to the old one.  Haven't seen you in these neck of the woods for a long time.

[Xian01]

You do realize that most of you, ASIC miners, will lose more BTC than you will make? I still salute you! Your sacrifice is very important for us all and is very appreciated.

Mining is integral to supporting the network. What do you suggest as an alternative ?

[Bitsaurus]

You do realize that most of you, ASIC miners, will lose more BTC than you will make? I still salute you! Your sacrifice is very important for us all and is very appreciated.

Mining is integral to supporting the network. What do you suggest as an alternative ?

If I recall Vlad had one of the biggest farms out there.  Don't know if he still does.

[mgio]

Difficulty will soar because of them and by the time BFL gets a product out the door, if they ever do, they won't be worth running.

 What will there be worth running then ? I'm looking for available alternatives. Have already invested in ASICMINER-PT and TAT-ASICMINER, bought 20 Erupter USB sticks to add to my farm, and hope to get in on an Avalon Batch 4 if they create one.

 Or do you think Avalon Batch 4's will be in customer hands before BFL ships in volume ?

I don't think the Eruptor USB sticks will ever pay for themselves.

The ASICMINER-PT shares have been great so far (I own 100 shares myself).

But basically, it's too late to get into ASIC mining and expect to make any real profits. The prices of ASICs will drop once the difficulty soars and stabilizes.

We will reach a point that you'll be able to buy an ASIC that pays for itself in a year or so with small profits after that.

I don't think that Avalon Batch 4s will be a good deal if they ever come out. The hundreds of thousands of discrete Avalon chips order will be out before then and the market will be filled with DIY miners.