Detailed projections of total ASIC shipments and effect on hashrate

[protocolized]

I just put together this spreadsheet this week.... Maybe other people will find it useful. I'd love feedback if folks have other data, corrections, alternate interpretations, etc:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am5Tfupsz5CfdGppUUVxLWttVzZzSHpxYzNPWjVDYUE#gid=5

I tried to use whatever data I could find and then just make guesses to project forward. I tried to make be as conservative as possible, where conservative means the hashrate is going way up, because I'm trying to estimate whether I'll recoup my investment in a BFL single.

Doesn't look that good for me, but I still have hope. Worst case scenario I'll help decentralize the network a touch.

Edit: Sorry, pasted the wrong url at first!

[protocolized]

I should add: I know the graphs are a little numerically crazy. I'm plotting the number of TH/s added in single events, but then plotting them on a continuous line. That doesn't make sense. But if you consider that the data points are all approximately spread out to something like once a month, it's a reasonable, rough way to estimate the trend.

[Stephen Gornick]

This is a fantastic compilation.  It shows how common expectations in the short run were overblown (we still aren't much more than 3X the difficulty from Jan 1st) but how in the long run we can't even imagine the capacity coming onboard.

I'd love feedback if folks have other data, corrections, alternate interpretations, etc:

   
For the "Days to recoup a 20 BTC expenditure on a 50gh rig:", ... that assumes you can still buy a 50 gh/s rig with 20 BTC.

[protocolized]

This is a fantastic compilation.

Thanks!

For the "Days to recoup a 20 BTC expenditure on a 50gh rig:", ... that assumes you can still buy a 50 gh/s rig with 20 BTC.

That's true! I just added some cells right below there to put in your gh/s and the cost of your rig in both USD and BTC.