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瑞银:中国经济增长势头见顶 未来将逐步放缓
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Topic: 瑞银:中国经济增长势头见顶 未来将逐步放缓 (Read 113 times)
Kellybad
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瑞银:中国经济增长势头见顶 未来将逐步放缓
May 16, 2017, 12:05:23 PM
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4月实体经济活动放缓幅度略超预期,内外需疲弱共同拖累了工业生产和固定资产投资。其中前者是由于外贸走弱、汽车生产减速、公共事业增加值放缓,而后者主要来自制造业投资增速放缓。不过,房地产和基建投资增速都保持稳健。
下半年增长放缓会更明显
未来几个月整体房地产建设和投资应可以保持相对稳健,但随着下半年房地产销售更明显的放缓,年底房地产建设投资活动也可能明显走弱。由于信贷偏紧,再加上更严格地规范地方政府举债融资行为,三四季度基建投资、整体固定资产投资和实体经济活动也可能明显减速。
信贷扩张度(或信贷脉冲)继续收缩,但可能不会持续太久
我们认为政府会试图在稳增长和降杠杆的双重目标之间寻求微妙的平衡,因此会适当控制信贷紧缩的幅度,以确保实现2017年的GDP增长目标。事实上,最近的强化监管的口气已开始有所缓和。我们认为信贷扩张度不会长期持续收缩。
经济增长势头见顶,未来逐步放缓
今天公布的数据符合我们此前的预期,即经济增长势头可能保持一个季度左右,但环比增速已经见顶,未来经济增速将逐步下行。一季度PPI同比增速回落幅度超预期,也可能加剧了名义工业活动放缓幅度,未来价格因素对工业企业利润、名义GDP、工业增加值和固定资产投资等名义指标的支撑将逐渐减弱。
内外需共同拖累4月经济活动放缓
房地产销售进一步放缓,但新开工面积保持平稳,制造业和投资势头依然稳健。4月房地产销售进一步放缓,同比增速几乎减半至7.7%。除了去年基数较高之外,最近几个月部分城市(大多数一二线城市以及少量三四线城市)加码房地产调控政策,也是销售放缓的重要原因之一。不过,部分未出台调控政策的三四线城市住宅销售(同比增长20%左右)和全国非住宅销售(同比增长30%以上)依然非常强劲,可以在一定程度上抵消一二线城市销售的放缓。受益于前几个月强劲的房地产销售增长,全国房地产新开工面积同比增速有所放缓、但仍达10%左右,年初至今的在建面积持稳,房地产投资有所提速(同比增长9.6%)。
制造业投资拖累固定资产同比增速放缓,而房地产和基建投资依然稳健。受益于一季度财政支出和拨款步伐加快、且地方公共项目建设势头依然较强,4月基建投资同比增速也加快至17.4%。不过,制造业投资同比增速下降近一半至3.3%,主要的拖累来自于电气机械、通讯器材等行业。再加上最近生产领域和固定资产投资领域相关价格的减速,整体固定资产同比增速下降一个百分点至8.3%,实际固定资产投资(固定资本形成口径)同比增速也放缓至中高个位数。
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