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北师大教授钟伟:继续炒房既无趣又无益
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Topic: 北师大教授钟伟:继续炒房既无趣又无益 (Read 171 times)
Janiceog
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北师大教授钟伟:继续炒房既无趣又无益
May 16, 2017, 12:38:38 PM
#1
从1998年至今,国人对房价的看法,是经过20年的波折和疑拒,逐渐建立起了一些房价单边上涨的信念。甚至每有大政方针,人们总是用有没有炒房机会的角度来解读。众人皆知美之为美,斯恶矣!随着抑制楼市泡沫的组合拳不断加强,炒房盛宴大致结束,继续炒房思维既无趣且无益。
如何看待中国的绝对房价?已经不低了。尽管中国有聚敛储蓄率高、经济成长快、人地矛盾大等因素,但房价贵是不争的事实。在京沪一线城市房价滞涨时,炒房客将眼光转向了绝对房价不高的三四线城市,甚至不少银行也希望将个人房贷业务的重点布局在地县。这种期待可能是徒劳的。一线城市的房价是标杆也是榜样,如果榜样难以光彩照人,那么小县城炒房风气转向只是迟早问题。何况严峻的现实是,去库存化迟缓的区域恰恰是在三四线。
如何看待中国的相对房价?我在去年于《21世纪经济报道》的分析地产泡沫的长文中指出,一线房价已经很高了。中国70个大中城市的房价收入比高于50倍,商品房租金收益率低于2%,以京沪为例,300万元一套的住宅已十分罕见,假定其每年涨5%便是15万元,这已远远超出了京沪中等以上收入白领的月薪。每平米动辄10万以上的所谓豪宅区,小区内往往遍地都是胡乱停放的电动车、自行车、老年代步车,这种高房价下极其廉价的出行方式畸形地结合,鲜明折射了泡沫特征。
如何看待中国房地产的发展阶段?未来房地产可能也是稳中趋缓。尽管中国城市化率仍然不高,仍有7亿农民,但涉及三农的政策基调难以发生剧变,加之保障房建设的巨大力度,使得房地产市场逐渐从总体供不应求转向供应过剩。即便买房机会仍存,也是局部市场和特定物业的机会。例如一线城市核心区域的机会,以及人均住宅、商业和物流面积尚未饱和的少数城市的机会。在中国大地随手买套房都赚大钱的时代已经结束了,以后精挑细选买房的难度也在增加。
如何看待中国房地产金融风险?有舆论指出中国楼市市值相当于GDP的411%,比全球平均水平高出260%,是全球最大泡沫。这种说法过于夸张和缺乏支撑。中国楼市经历了风云激荡的20年,商品房累计销售金额约在65万亿元,其中绝大部分为2010年之后所销售。因此,中国楼市市值可能在120万亿-150万亿元。另据国家统计局调查,2015年底中国城镇居民人均财富约14.5万元,其中不动产占比约65%。考虑到中国居民银行储蓄等动产的规模,我们也可大致推算出不动产市值。截止到2016年底,中国个人住房按揭余额和公积金贷款余额相加约20万亿,从按揭率、按揭违约率和按揭早偿率看,迄今为止,尽管中国楼市局部泡沫化,但总体金融风险基本可控,只要调控节奏得当,中国金融体系有充裕的斡旋余地来应对楼市调整。
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Re: 北师大教授钟伟:继续炒房既无趣又无益
May 16, 2017, 12:57:38 PM
#2
现在的中国除了虚拟币我不知道还能玩什么
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