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李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆?
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Topic: 李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆? (Read 214 times)
Janiceog
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李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆?
May 16, 2017, 01:31:27 PM
#1
谈到日本的经济问题,人们一般会惯性地想起日本在二十世纪九十年代初的资产泡沫破灭和经济硬着陆,以及“失去的二十年”。但大家却对日本经济“失去二十年”的原因看法不一。反观美国,2008年史无前例的次贷危机后,仅仅七年后经济就呈现强劲复苏之势。当前,中国正面临金融监管加强和金融去杠杆的紧迫任务,如何来借鉴日美经济的去杠杆经历,来选择中国式去杠杆的可行路径,已经成为非常现实的问题。
本文认为,中国经济更现实的选择是稳杠杆和转杠杆,重点通过金融监管体制和激励约束机制改革,降低金融部门的杠杆率,以此来带动国企和地方政府降杠杆。
一、杠杆过度往往会引发金融危机
杠杆率的波峰波谷往往同一个国家的兴盛衰退紧密相连。总体看,高而稳定的杠杆率水平并不一定意味着高风险,而需要引起注意的是快速增长的杠杆率。杠杆率判定上有一种“5-30规则”,认为在5年的时间内,若以一国信贷规模与GDP之比为代表的杠杆率水平增长幅度超过30个百分点,之后该国就会迎来一轮金融危机,这一规则已被多次验证,如1985-1989年的日本经济、1993-1997年的泰国和马来西亚经济、2003-2007年的美国经济等。
那么高杠杆是如何引发金融危机呢?杠杆率过高往往会导致负债方的付息偿债压力过大而无法维持,从而出现违约、破产清算或重组的情况。当较多企业出现债务问题,大面积的违约和清算将触发费雪的债务-通缩多米诺骨牌,引发大规模廉价抛售、资产价格下跌、通货紧缩、失业率上升、实际利率上升等一系列连锁反应,从而引发金融危机。
二、美国走出次贷泥潭得益于成功去杠杆
2008年次贷危机导致美国经济硬着陆,但经过一系列政策手段,美国通过政府加杠杆,来帮助居民和企业缓慢去杠杆,从目前美国经济指标来看,美国的去杠杆进程是成功的,失业率低,通胀稳定,经济增长较快,2015年、2016年实际GDP增长分别达到2.6%、1.6%。
(一)危机前美国杠杆率高企的原因
金融危机之前,美国经济杠杆率不断上升。从监管缺失角度看,金融监管的欠缺导致美国金融创新过度、评级与风险偏好失真,过于宽松的按揭贷款政策使得美国家庭负债率水涨船高。从资产泡沫角度看,危机前房地产价格的快速攀升导致了市场形成资产价格上涨的单向预期,持续推动了以获取资产增值收益为目的的信贷投资需求扩张。
OTTage
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Re: 李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆?
May 16, 2017, 04:06:17 PM
#2
去杠杆吧
Yoon Wai
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Activity: 106
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Re: 李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆?
May 17, 2017, 12:17:19 AM
#3
稳杠杆吧
Marilu Aijala
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Activity: 102
Merit: 10
Re: 李迅雷:中国究竟是去杠杆还是稳杠杆?
May 17, 2017, 12:18:13 AM
#4
有杠杆才赤鸡
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