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Author Topic: What happened to the weekend slump?  (Read 3298 times)
imperi
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June 19, 2011, 01:40:38 AM
 #1

I thought Bitcoins were supposed to go down on the weekend? It just hit 18 at this moment.

Resident Bitcoin economists, philosophers, and speculators, please explain! Doesn't this run contrary to Bitcoin theory? Also, didn't Edward50 predict Bitcoins would drop to 8 - 10?
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June 19, 2011, 01:55:22 AM
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I think society has been so far removed from open markets that it doesn't understand how they work.

If all traders expect the price to fall on the weekend, they will sell earlier, and buy into the weekend. This will push the dip earlier in time, and in the long run will level it off and make it disappear completely.

This is a great example of how "evil speculators" actually make markets more efficient and smooth out the variance. The physical constriction of MtGox wire limits, and weekend bank issues, is being smoothed over by speculators who are each trying to profit on that known constriction.

Markets FTW
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June 19, 2011, 02:07:32 AM
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Lots of trading & buying occurring. good for the coins

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June 19, 2011, 02:28:56 AM
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I think society has been so far removed from open markets that it doesn't understand how they work.

If all traders expect the price to fall on the weekend, they will sell earlier, and buy into the weekend. This will push the dip earlier in time, and in the long run will level it off and make it disappear completely.

This is a great example of how "evil speculators" actually make markets more efficient and smooth out the variance. The physical constriction of MtGox wire limits, and weekend bank issues, is being smoothed over by speculators who are each trying to profit on that known constriction.

Markets FTW

Good point, we all need to be reminded that the free market is a wild but somehow logical beast. It's hard for people (including me) to understand how free markets work, as there have been very few examples in the past hundred years or so.

Jaime Frontero
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June 19, 2011, 02:31:37 AM
 #5

I thought Bitcoins were supposed to go down on the weekend? It just hit 18 at this moment.

Resident Bitcoin economists, philosophers, and speculators, please explain! Doesn't this run contrary to Bitcoin theory? Also, didn't Edward50 predict Bitcoins would drop to 8 - 10?

those "economists, philosophers, and speculators" would all appear to believe that past statistics are a valid predictor of future performance.

...just like every wall street tout with a $400/year signal sheet.

and the only people who make money - if that's their goal - are the ones who don't listen, and go their own way.

me... i want a viable alternate economy.  i'm sick of having my money screwed with.  and if i make some dough along the way, that's fine.  but mostly i want to be able to pay for the things i want without a bunch of different hands in my pockets.

i mean, thanks - but i can juggle my own balls...

YMMV
datguywhowanders
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June 19, 2011, 03:28:33 AM
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i mean, thanks - but i can juggle my own balls...

Thank you for that. I needed a laugh Wink

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bcpokey
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June 19, 2011, 03:41:59 AM
 #7

Glad someone made this topic, for the responses it has gotten. I mean, really, "lets all wait for the weekend price dip!" makes no sense. This is more or less a zero sum game, not everyone can be a winner, so no known trends can be sustained.
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June 19, 2011, 04:22:31 AM
 #8

It's the WeekEnd rally now!

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nemo
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June 19, 2011, 08:33:21 AM
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Everyone expected rock, so we threw paper.
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June 19, 2011, 09:21:50 AM
 #10

I thought Bitcoins were supposed to go down on the weekend? It just hit 18 at this moment.
It often doesn't, but when people have decided they have found a pattern, they put a higher weight on the data that supports their view than the data that doesn't. This time I suspect so many amature speculators sold their bitcoins on Thursday/Friday to be ready for the "weekend dip" that it pushed the price down. When the weekend came there were few sellers left and lots of people with dollars, which pushes the price up.
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June 19, 2011, 12:15:04 PM
 #11

i mean, thanks - but i can juggle my own balls...

lol, nice one

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Grant
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June 19, 2011, 12:18:25 PM
 #12

I thought Bitcoins were supposed to go down on the weekend? It just hit 18 at this moment.


Its not how it works... You'll fail to time the weekends if you use the gregorian calendar.

You need to use BitCalendar, the new p2p decentralized calendar that turns out to be 1000% more precise than the mayan one Smiley

2 weeks ago the weekend was on Friday,
last week the weekend started on Thursday,
and obviously this week it started on Wednesday (when we had a little low activity and even some correction).

If this trend continues next weekend starts on tuesday.

bitbot
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June 19, 2011, 12:47:14 PM
 #13

there should be an increase in price on Monday to around 19-20$ so I recommend everyone buy now while it's still in the low 17's

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dinzy
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June 19, 2011, 05:30:00 PM
 #14

It just tanked.  All my lower priced orders got filled.  Oops.  Or Hooray.  Whatever this is fun
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June 19, 2011, 05:31:56 PM
 #15

I guess Mt Gox just executed (well currently executing) the largest sell order they've ever had.

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Babylon
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June 19, 2011, 05:33:22 PM
 #16

I guess Mt Gox just executed (well currently executing) the largest sell order they've ever had.

MTGox really needs to change the way they display depth of market.  It looks like there are no bids whatsoever.  I know this is not the case since I have some lower than the market that are not being displayed.

dev^
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June 19, 2011, 05:33:58 PM
 #17

I guess Mt Gox just executed (well currently executing) the largest sell order they've ever had.

If my tool is right, there are 33K BTC left on Mt. Gox... for 0.0 Grin
padrino
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June 19, 2011, 05:36:01 PM
 #18

I guess Mt Gox just executed (well currently executing) the largest sell order they've ever had.

If my tool is right, there are 33K BTC left on Mt. Gox... for 0.0 Grin

Your tool? How would you catch that using their API if the trade is still executing?

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dev^
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June 19, 2011, 05:38:21 PM
 #19

Your tool? How would you catch that using their API if the trade is still executing?

It's listening to the Websocket stream, which still sends market depth informations.
But... I don't know what I should think about it. -> http://img24.dreamies.de/img/827/b/k5wp9ekfeqb.gif
TurboK
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June 19, 2011, 05:38:42 PM
 #20

Holy shit, yeah, someone is selling at least 7000 right now. Crazy.

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