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金融地产繁荣背后藏隐忧 未来政策或遇两难
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Topic: 金融地产繁荣背后藏隐忧 未来政策或遇两难 (Read 218 times)
GGfan
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金融地产繁荣背后藏隐忧 未来政策或遇两难
May 18, 2017, 02:26:06 AM
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最近两年最让大家津津乐道的莫过于房价了,从去年底开始又增加了一个话题,金融去杠杆!这两者之间有何联系?当前房地产、金融业的体量和对经济影响究竟有多大?背后蕴含哪些风险?未来又将如何走?
金融业过于庞大。过去的十年可以说是我国金融业飞速发展的时期,如果从近三年的平均增速来看,私募基金规模年化增速高达130%,基金子公司专户123%,基金公司专户74%,券商资管51%,均在50%以上。基金公司公募增速45%,信托23%,保险20%,增速也都远高于GDP增速和M2增速。从宏观角度看,我国金融业增加值占GDP比重从05年时不足5%,但截至16年底,这一比重达到了8.4%,而美国和日本这一比值的历史高位分别在7.7%和8.5%。从微观角度来看,我国金融行业的上市公司利润占全部上市公司总利润比重达到57%,近几年非银金融机构利润占比在快速上升。
房地产膨胀更严重。因为发展阶段和统计口径差异,我国房地产增加值占GDP的直接比重并不高,仅为7%,而美、日占比都在10%以上。但08年以来,我国房地产增加值占GDP比重累计上升了2个百分点,相比之下其他国家反而稳中有降。如果考虑到间接效应,房地产对经济影响要大得多。根据我们的测算,我国1/3的经济与房地产有关。2016年6.7%的GDP增长中有2.4个百分点是由广义房地产行业拉动起来的,对GDP增长贡献率高达36%,而2015年贡献率仅为25%。
地产和金融盘根错节。事实上,我国金融业和房地产是绑在一起的,共同主导着经济走势。首先,每1单位广义房地产GDP可以拉动接近0.2单位的金融业GDP,拉动幅度仅次于采矿业。其次,房地产相关行业贷款占全部贷款比重达到34%,发行的信用债存量占非金融信用债总量的近50%。最后,“影子银行”体系中,地产相关行业的融资也很多。截至2016年底,证券公司定向资管计划高达14.7万亿,基金子公司专户产品规模达到10.5万亿,其中的很大部分与房地产非标融资有关。
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