You summed that up very well. Please share with us you you tink might happen if you had to guess.
In the past I have misjudged inertia rather badly, e.g. I was a researcher at AT&T Bell Labs back when Lucent was created, cleaving the equipment
design/manufacture from the service. A rampant question among us was where to go? Lucent or AT&T? I knew quite a lot about the
products Lucent would inherit and I was confident that Lucent was ultimately a loser... too big/wasteful/slow/unaware/noncompetitive relative
to all the hungry upstarts.
I knew it was a loser, but made the mistake of thinking that because the collapse was inevitable, because I saw it, it would start happening.
It did happen, but first I watched a 20-30 times price growth in the stock over a couple+ years - a case of "the market can remain
irrational longer than you can remain solvent'.
Many people in this domain have very strong opinions about what is going to happen.
It is a very human way of processing information. Start with agenda; weigh each piece of information as it comes in; if it supports my agenda I
call it true; if it hurts my agenda I call it false, and slander the source of the information while I am at it.
I am interested in profit, not satisfaction for my id (as in the Freudian id).
So... to answer your question, I really do not know. I feel sure it will be a problem, even with support for a "solution", rolling it
out at current political/monetary scale will be non-trivial indeed.
But I respect the power of inertia which I suspect will keep the ball rolling
until there is enough critical mass of complaint.
Right now I have traded more than 1/2 of my btc for eth (and some etc), since that is a logical path
for a BTC holder to solve the delay and expense problem. I'm guessing eth will continue to gain market share
from btc, and it could run up quite a bit more before it is done. They also have a good mass of marketing/hype going.
I'm about 25% cash, and I have software keeping a very close eye on the fear/greed price dynamic. I'll be happy
to jump ship when the mood changes or the next piece of disaster-news pops up.
If I could find cheap long-term puts, out of the money LEAPs for btc, I'd be buying some.
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You can say that about bitcoin on this site somebody might stone you! Great analysis.
