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Author Topic: At what point will the backlog of unconfirmed transaction affect BTC price?  (Read 1635 times)
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May 18, 2017, 11:11:05 PM
 #1

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?


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May 18, 2017, 11:13:33 PM
 #2

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?



Short answer... higher transaction fees.

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May 18, 2017, 11:13:53 PM
 #3

the price is controlled by traders. many trader coins never leave the exchanges. i think the answer is that it would be surprisingly high because of that.

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May 18, 2017, 11:17:59 PM
 #4

the price is controlled by traders. many trader coins never leave the exchanges. i think the answer is that it would be surprisingly high because of that.

Exactly. If someone buys coins on say coinbase, waits a little while for price appreciation, and then sells those coins via coinbase again, there isn't any activity on the blockchain. I think most would agree that the price action is driven mostly by traders and speculators, and not so much via actual demand from transactions. As such, the price won't be affected much by the large number of unconfirmed transactions unless the it starts to scare the speculators.  I thought that would cause some people to sell but it hasn't been the case. Honestly I think it's going to be very difficult to derail the momentum that bitcoin has built up. Pretty much everyone on the planet thinks the price will keep going higher, so there's a ton of buyers even @ $1900. The trader in me says that this rally from $1000 or so is way overdone but the reality is that nothing has been able to slow it down, no one is willing to sell and many many people are willing to buy. In an environment like this I think it will  take a long while for a drawdown, but when it happens it could be spectacular
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May 18, 2017, 11:20:53 PM
 #5

Seemingly never, at least judging by what we've been seeing...
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May 18, 2017, 11:26:17 PM
 #6

Higher and higher transaction fees. Then Bitcoin will stop being used for micro tx and only be used to transfer big amount of money.
Imagine having to pay $5 for a tx.
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May 18, 2017, 11:28:23 PM
 #7

Higher and higher transaction fees. Then Bitcoin will stop being used for micro tx and only be used to transfer big amount of money.
Imagine having to pay $5 for a tx.

i've already paid way more than that and that was long before the current backlog. those multiple inputs sure do hurt. dust is already unspendable. soon enough even pretty respectable amounts made up of multiple inputs are gonna cost too much to move.

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May 18, 2017, 11:28:37 PM
 #8

guys remember

the segwit proposal doesnt cure blocksize simply due to activation.
it requires people to move funds and then after moving funds, continue to use funds on new keys to be 'leaner' to slip in more tx's per block.

issue is moving over to segwit keypairs will add more mempool bloat with everyone racing to try to move funds across for the HOPE that their voluntary attempt to move across to use segwit keys will be enough to help.

this however would only be achievable if EVERYONE moved over to segwit keys.. yes even the malicious spammers would need to move across
if not then the spammers will continue and people find that they are still waiting in a cesspit of mempool

i say this. because once people realise the empty gesture of segwit. genuine people stop using bitcoin and all thats left is the spammers and mixers



with less people withdrawing bitcoins from exchanges due to days waiting, the price will go down because people then find other assets/ways to get their funds out of an exchange.

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May 18, 2017, 11:29:19 PM
 #9

Im thinking if it takes more than a week. Even hardcore community members would stop until it was fixed. Of course that is just speculation on my part but who knows, right?

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May 18, 2017, 11:30:56 PM
 #10

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?
I'm basically parroting a lot of other views from the thread but it primarily comes down to how bad the transaction fees get. There could be a large backlog of transactions but as long as Bitcoin remains competitive for fees then I do not believe that there would be any significant effect on the value of Bitcoin.

Solving the scaling issue might increase the value somewhat.














 

 

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May 18, 2017, 11:34:09 PM
 #11

Solving the scaling issue might increase the value somewhat.

there'll never be a solution, but if something comes along that eases it then i think the price will take a serious hike up. bitcoin in principal is unchanged since its early days. i think alot of people are waiting to see if it can evolve before making a proper commitment.

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May 18, 2017, 11:39:56 PM
 #12

I guess it doesnt really affect so much but i guess it affect the bitcoin in a sense that the transaction is takes days so many bitcoin holder doesnt like it so they will change there currency or just spend there money in eth or zcash or something that have a fast transactions so bitcoin users will be minimize in users and thats affect the bitcoin demand i guess.


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May 18, 2017, 11:47:43 PM
 #13

At a certain point people will stop withdrawing in BTC and start converting to other coins and withdraw instead. Some of the more stable coins like ETH might be a decent store of value, as it has 2 more major updates to undergo before it is considered mostly complete. ETH will likely go up in value by a lot.

Don't pay fees just to pay miners for being greedy. Convert to another coin.



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May 18, 2017, 11:50:02 PM
 #14

I am surprised that the unconfirmed transactions are not even affecting the price of bitcoin at all and i think people are looking it as a mode of storing assets rather than a transaction platform and the world news and economic struggles around the world might be helping bitcoin and who knows when this will have an serious impact in the price and growth of bitcoin.


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May 19, 2017, 12:22:13 AM
 #15

If bitcoin price drops more than 20% it will take less than a week for those turkeys to begin to implement solution.

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May 19, 2017, 02:06:13 AM
 #16

I am surprised that the unconfirmed transactions are not even affecting the price of bitcoin at all and i think people are looking it as a mode of storing assets rather than a transaction platform and the world news and economic struggles around the world might be helping bitcoin and who knows when this will have an serious impact in the price and growth of bitcoin.

I think it shows how strong the demand for bitcoin is and we will definitely see a spike wen there is a resolution.

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May 19, 2017, 04:54:11 AM
 #17

guys remember

the segwit proposal doesnt cure blocksize simply due to activation.
it requires people to move funds and then after moving funds, continue to use funds on new keys to be 'leaner' to slip in more tx's per block.

issue is moving over to segwit keypairs will add more mempool bloat with everyone racing to try to move funds across for the HOPE that their voluntary attempt to move across to use segwit keys will be enough to help.

this however would only be achievable if EVERYONE moved over to segwit keys.. yes even the malicious spammers would need to move across
if not then the spammers will continue and people find that they are still waiting in a cesspit of mempool

i say this. because once people realise the empty gesture of segwit. genuine people stop using bitcoin and all thats left is the spammers and mixers



with less people withdrawing bitcoins from exchanges due to days waiting, the price will go down because people then find other assets/ways to get their funds out of an exchange.

Thank you Franky1.

Spam will continue either in Segwit scenario or current status quo scenario. Makes no difference, the world, from Philippines to Spain to Japan to Russia to USA to India to Brazil to Nigeria to UK are clamoring to get a piece of Bitcoin. This honest financial asset is exploding: Its scarce, decentralized, secured, maintained integrity (including premine), and immutable.

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May 19, 2017, 05:00:39 AM
 #18

No matter how high or how many unconfirmed transactions will there be spam attacks from different users will keep and keep coming,using higher fees has nothing to deal with this if bitcoin network is experiencing huge spam attacks

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piloder
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May 19, 2017, 05:04:54 AM
 #19

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?


It will simply mean bitcoin will no longer be suitable to make micro transactions as more unconfirmed transactions in mempool simply means you have to pay more in fees to get faster confirmation. I don't think all of this unconfirmed transactions are normal transactions, someone is attacking bitcoin network.

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markjamrobin
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May 19, 2017, 05:05:40 AM
 #20

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?



Perhaps you should understand this, any unconfirmed transaction will not be confirmed as a complete transaction, it may even be labeled double spite although your money has been deducted. So to be safe, you will have to pay a higher fee. At the moment, it is causing the charge to increase rapidly. It can be worse if not resolved, we are paying four times higher fee.


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