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Author Topic: At what point will the backlog of unconfirmed transaction affect BTC price?  (Read 1140 times)
SwagGirl
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May 20, 2017, 06:36:27 PM
 #41



You summed that up very well. Please share with us you you tink might happen if you had to guess.


In the past I have misjudged inertia rather badly, e.g.  I was a researcher at AT&T Bell Labs back when Lucent was created, cleaving the equipment
design/manufacture from the service. A rampant question among us was where to go? Lucent or AT&T? I knew quite a lot about the
products Lucent would inherit and I was confident that Lucent was ultimately a loser... too big/wasteful/slow/unaware/noncompetitive relative
to all the hungry upstarts.

I knew it was a loser, but made the mistake of thinking that because the collapse was inevitable, because I saw it, it would start happening.
It did happen, but first I watched a 20-30 times price growth in the stock over a couple+ years   -  a case of "the market can remain
irrational longer than you can remain solvent'.

Many people in this domain have very strong opinions about what is going to happen.
It is a very human way of processing information. Start with agenda; weigh each piece of information as it comes in; if it supports my agenda I
call it true; if it hurts my agenda I call it false, and slander the source of the information while I am at it.

I am interested in profit, not satisfaction for my id (as in the Freudian id).
So... to answer your question, I really do not know. I feel sure it will be a problem, even with support for a "solution", rolling it
out at current political/monetary scale will be non-trivial indeed.

But I respect the power of inertia which I suspect will keep the ball rolling
until there is enough critical mass of complaint.

Right now I have traded  more than 1/2 of my btc for eth (and some etc), since that is a logical path
for a BTC holder to solve the delay and expense problem. I'm guessing eth will continue to gain market share
from btc, and it could run up quite a bit more before it is done. They also have a good mass of marketing/hype going.
I'm about 25% cash, and I have software keeping a very close eye on the fear/greed price dynamic. I'll be happy
to jump ship when the mood changes or the next piece of disaster-news pops up.

If I could find cheap long-term puts, out of the money LEAPs for btc, I'd be buying some.


[/quote]


You can say that about bitcoin on this site somebody might stone you! Great analysis.

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peter0425
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May 20, 2017, 07:17:06 PM
 #42

First I want  to say bitcoin can not be stopped and will never go away. Thats said everybody says it is a huge problem with a backlog of about 200k transactions.

What would happen at 300k, 500k?


If the investors will notice that because of the big amount of unconfirmed transactions then it will be a huge problem for bitcoin because they will think that bitcoin is not convenient because of its unconfirmed transaction so there will be a chance that a panic selling will occurs and that will affect the bitcoin price.

But they are investors, they don't care if there is a huge backlog of unconfirmed transactions. They will just put their money on bitcoin and just hope it will double in the next couple of months. For some this is a problem, specially if you are using it everyday to transact business online. But I don't see people panic selling, because the price of bitcoin now is really strong.

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