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风向标疑云:BDI重挫 “商品牛”止步?
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Topic: 风向标疑云:BDI重挫 “商品牛”止步? (Read 111 times)
Antnaone
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风向标疑云:BDI重挫 “商品牛”止步?
May 20, 2017, 09:12:41 AM
#1
中国证券报:BDI指数从3月29日的高点1338点开始,至今累计重挫28.48%,至957点。BDI指数连续走弱,原因是什么?
程小勇:BDI指数作为国际干散货运输市场的“晴雨表”,其走势和贸易商品尤其是干散货贸易有很大关系。影响BDI指数走势的因素包括:全球GDP增长率、全球铁矿石及煤矿运输需求量、全球谷物运输需求量、全球船吨数供给量、国际船用燃油平均价等。
而此轮BDI指数大幅下跌主要原因在于中国补库周期结束,对国际干散货需求降温。补库周期结束可以通过制造业PMI中原材料库存和产成品库存分项指标分化看出来。4月份规模以上工业增加值反映的供应情况,以及4月基建投资增速回落反映的需求情况,也都验证了补库周期的结束,或者说进入被动库存阶段。
今年2月至4月BDI指数一度出现上涨,当时包括煤焦钢等商品也保持坚挺,但主要的驱动力来源于船运新运力投放下降,海运费上涨。因此可以得出结论,随着原油价格下跌,海运运费成本下降,叠加中国补库周期结束,这是BDI指数大幅下跌的主因。
林惠:首先,今年一季度我国经济运行稳中向好,实现良好开局,一季度GDP同比增长6.9%,创近六个季度新高,也高于6.5%左右的今年全年增长目标,但大概率将成为全年高点。进入4月份,经济开始明显放缓,制造业景气度转弱,繁荣周期或阶段性见顶。
其次,需求层面,我国对于铁矿石需求的抑制、以及煤炭进入消费淡季,使得大宗商品需求偏弱,短期工业需求难有改善,导致对运力的需求偏低。
再次,虽然美国总统特朗普基建计划即将出台,但前景仍不被看好,基建进度明显落后预期,全球需求没有明显改善,一定程度上也对BDI指数形成抑制。
最后,由于美国炼油厂开工率较高,库存有所堆积,同时利比亚此前由于动乱引起的停产可能恢复,加之OPEC减产力度继续提升的可能性较低,而从4月中旬开始国际原油价格快速回落,也对BDI指数造成一定的不利影响。
中国证券报:对BDI指数后市走势有什么判断,为什么?
程小勇:BDI指数后市很大可能出现深度调整。原因在于,中国补库结束或者被动补库下,后市可能再度进入去库存阶段。除非国际原油价格大幅上涨、海运成本上升才有可能缓解BDI指数跌势,但是基于OPEC减产延长导致的产出缺口被美国页岩油和部分非OPEC产油国增产弥补,以及中国经济降温下需求降温,原油很大可能进入相对平衡的震荡期,因此BDI指数不大可能出现能源成本上涨带来的成本提振效应。
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