The Black Swan Scenario

[whale123]

What do you think could permanently/temporarily bring the markets down and become a new gox? Regulations? Huge exchange running away? One coin taking it all?

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[Cart]

It could be that there was a serious bug found in the code of some coins, making them completely worthless

[lurker10]

Throw away your worries for the second wave of the Great crypto bull market! We have a few months of steaming on ahead of us. Inevitably there will be dumps, but the second wave is not over yet, not before this year's end.

This second wave will take us to 200B market cap in 2017, then it cools down to 100B in 2018 and afterwards the third wave to 1000B in 2019-2020. Embrace and enjoy the ride!

[MedaR]

Everything can happen, nothing is excluded, but when something bringing money, tend to stay. Crashes are mainly caused to bring more money to certain groups and this will not be changed. Till we have centralized exchanges we will live in fear, of GOX sindrom. Regulations won't kill money machine, they will tax it and try to controll it.

[2dogs]

By definition, a black swan event is extremely difficult to predict, or is an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
So how can we talk about it?

[thehiddenconifold]

A Black Swan event is not something you can account for. An event with such a low probability of taking place, is not worth discussing about.

[RatCoin]

Throw away your worries for the second wave of the Great crypto bull market! We have a few months of steaming on ahead of us. Inevitably there will be dumps, but the second wave is not over yet, not before this year's end.

This second wave will take us to 200B market cap in 2017, then it cools down to 100B in 2018 and afterwards the third wave to 1000B in 2019-2020. Embrace and enjoy the ride!

100% Correct

As the Blockchains are gaining traction with big businesses (BTC, ETH, XRP, etc.) the usage, status, volume, etc becomes a market.

Once the market in crypto is stablished then there is no return.

There will be crashes but even the larges crash will bounce back because we will be in a real crypto market.

Think about 2008/09.. if you had sold then because of the crash then you would have missed the best time to buy stocks ahead of the longest bull market in history.

Think about bitcoin two years ago, yes it came down from 1000 to 180 or lower. Should you have sold and stayed out? I think you know the answer.

[JayT]

It is government backed blockchains. Their own digital currency, maybe backed by gold!

[lurker10]

It is government backed blockchains. Their own digital currency, maybe backed by gold!

A cryptocurrency which is not decentralized makes no sense whatsoever, so gov backed blockchains are pointless.

[angaper]

By definition, a black swan event is extremely difficult to predict, or is an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
So how can we talk about it?

Absolutely agree, the essence of this event is its unpredictability, however there is a popular tendency to consider a huge drop as a "black swan" because as a general rule, the usual result of that event is a great drop.

[jane418]

unless the internet infrastructures are totally destroyed

[jdlr]

guys, a black swan will happen eventually in anything, including crypto.
It could be anything, a hack, a terrorist attach, another ETH style or DAO style incident,
one of the big coins goes scam, a few big whales cashing in at the same time, etc etc...

You have to think about that, because when it does, you crash and burn(talking from experience in the stock market)

There is no way to predict these things, so tread carefully all, I'm still trying to figure it all out myself, so any opinions / views welcome

[MacT]

 Worsening world economy is the greatest threat to crypto. In tough times non tangible things lose attentionOna small scale a economic crisis or two helps crypto as citizens in places hit that way move to crypto for its safety, but there is no safety any place during depressions and recessions.

[chutchmcgillicutty]

Supervirus with 70%+ mortality rate

Would really make most commodities worthless

[IloveDigibyte]

Poloniex becoming a GOX would be a huge short term blow to all coins on there. Waves would become a top 5 coin in marketcap as they not on Poloniex.

[bohr]

It could be that there was a serious bug found in the code of some coins, making them completely worthless

I don’t think we need something that serious, we just need a few bad news and the whole upwards momentum will vanish, if another hack happened then that would be enough in my mind to crash the price since once again confidence in exchanges will be shaken.

[dbc23]

I think many of the smaller fears I've seen listed so far like: terrorist attacks (of a small scale), virus spreading (electronic not RNA), regulation, scams/dumps are all accounted for to some extent in daily exchanging.  These things happen and will continue to happen and will have regional / coin specific effects.

It would take something of a global or multi-national nature to be a true black swan that could tank the entire crypto market as it is today.

I think the realistic scenario is more like what is upthread, with a continuing boom for several months to a year with a downturn of several months to a year to follow the end of that which will culminate in a new rise that will bring the market caps of the larger currencies to the point they can now no longer be dismissed and the government WILL step in at that point. 

My thought is with the whales controlling the markets as they do now, and the overwhelmingly simple market manipulation they can twiddle out to make profits on top of profits they (the whales) are doing what they can to curry favor and/or suppress regulation.  Once the market is of a tangible size that market shifts could have real world economic impact that will come to an end, and much of what's been enjoyed AND cursed of this scene for the past 5 years will slowly fade into IRS/SEC/SS bureaucracy.   

[ttookk]

It is government backed blockchains. Their own digital currency, maybe backed by gold!

A cryptocurrency which is not decentralized makes no sense whatsoever, so gov backed blockchains are pointless.

Well, you could make them centrally governed but maintained by permitted, but distributed nodes, thus making the infrastructure kinda decentralized and hard to attack, which would be the likely scenario of state issued blockchain currencies. I'm not saying i'm a fan, but there is merit to the idea nonetheless.

About the "Altcoin-killer" event: Having the SEC approve the ETF and getting a good solution to Bitcoins scaling issue could create a giant rally into Bitcoin, so big in fact, that altcoins could suffer from people cashing out to get in on the Bitcoin action. 

[Pearls Before Swine]

Regulations could do it, big time.  Exchanges going down?  Nah, we've seen that with Gox and Cryptsy and that has not had a big effect.  I don't think anything of that nature would qualify as a "black swan event".  But government throwing a monkey wrench into the works could certainly mess everything up in a big way.

Also a pump & dump by an enormous whale could end badly.  I worry that this is what we're currently experiencing.  If big money gets involved and drives the price to insane heights (in progress), the dump could be disaster when they take their money out.  And they will.

[EarlyBirdSpecial]

I could see something happening with poloniex and gov't regulation starting out with ICOs and then further expanding their authority over the entire market.