The Black Swan Scenario

[European Central Bank]

I could see something happening with poloniex and gov't regulation starting out with ICOs and then further expanding their authority over the entire market.

me too. the ico thing shits all over securities regulations in most cases. if governments decided to actually do something then an awful lot of projects are going to be exposed.

poloniex is the other. where would the alt market be without it? sure, there are others but that's the place that started these ultra pumps. the place is falling apart with a few tens of thousands of users. imagine what would happen if hundreds of thousands joined in. it might only take a few weeks to get that many.

[rickadone]

By definition, a black swan event is extremely difficult to predict, or is an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
So how can we talk about it?

Absolutely agree, the essence of this event is its unpredictability, however there is a popular tendency to consider a huge drop as a "black swan" because as a general rule, the usual result of that event is a great drop.

Well guys I don’t understand that when will we accept the general logic that after every height there has to come a drop and this is how the things have to complete the life cycle. Now why does it happen is a good topic to be discussed. This is easy to understand as well so, that new things could come up.

[whale123]

Thanks for all the input!

[beerlover]

Everything can happen, nothing is excluded, but when something bringing money, tend to stay. Crashes are mainly caused to bring more money to certain groups and this will not be changed. Till we have centralized exchanges we will live in fear, of GOX sindrom. Regulations won't kill money machine, they will tax it and try to controll it.

The regulation are never to kill any financial activity abut are here to streamline them in a good way to be helpful for the progress of the society. Thing get wrong when money or wealth is stored at a certain place, the circulation of wealth is very important to keep the society in a balance and alive.

[andron8383]

It could be that there was a serious bug found in the code of some coins, making them completely worthless

mostlikekly it would be bug in code can brig BTC to 0 but without such bug BTC is safe.
Altcoins also can be safe for while but with rissing  maretcap this is big shorting opportunity to exploit.

[angaper]

By definition, a black swan event is extremely difficult to predict, or is an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
So how can we talk about it?

Absolutely agree, the essence of this event is its unpredictability, however there is a popular tendency to consider a huge drop as a "black swan" because as a general rule, the usual result of that event is a great drop.

Well guys I don’t understand that when will we accept the general logic that after every height there has to come a drop and this is how the things have to complete the life cycle. Now why does it happen is a good topic to be discussed. This is easy to understand as well so, that new things could come up.

Perhaps one of the best-known explanations for trying to explain this non-linear behavior of the markets was given by Ralph Nelson Elliot through his popular theory of Elliot Waves (based in turn on Dow's theory). But as with all theories around the technical analysis, there is no general consensus of acceptance of this idea and, on the contrary, there is much skepticism about it.

More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

However it is necessary to clarify that these usual drops are not not a "black swan" which is characterized by being an unexpected and unusual event.

[Pente]

By definition, a black swan event is extremely difficult to predict, or is an unpredictable or unforeseen event.
So how can we talk about it?

While the particular event that collapses a system may be unpredictable, the susceptibility of a system can be observed by how fast that system recovers from a traumatic event. The longer the system takes to return to homeostasis, the weaker the system.

This behavior can be observed in all sorts of systems: society, family, ecology, economics, health, ect.

For instance, a person starts taking months, instead of weeks, to get over simple illnesses or injuries will often succumb to a more serious problem like a hip fracture, even though a healthy person would still recover from it.

Note that many economies are taking longer and longer to recover from stress, often not even fully recovering anymore. I suspect a lot of things could push them over the edge now. For instance, imagine if the USA population moves 25% of it's wealth to cryptocurrencies. In the past, I think the USA would withstand the stress, today I doubt it.