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美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
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Topic: 美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率 (Read 185 times)
funcaty
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美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
May 25, 2017, 03:47:54 AM
#1
核心提示:据这些专家们说,这可能还意味着中国迅速的老龄化和减少的劳动力所带来的问题会比担心的更为严重。
参考消息网5月25日报道 港媒称,据一组研究人员提供的数据,中国实际人口数量可能比官方数据少很多,这意味着印度将早于预期取代中国成为全球人口最多的国家。
据香港《南华早报》网站5月23日报道,威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校研究员易富贤当日在北京大学的一次学术会议上说,中国去年的实际人口可能约为12.9亿,比国家统计局公布的官方数据少9000万,相当于西班牙人口的两倍。
易富贤是《大国空巢》一书的作者,这本书影响力很大,称中国需要更高,而不是更低的出生率。易富贤表示,1990年后中国官方的人口数据被夸大了。
他的研究显示,在1991年至2016年间,中国有3.776亿名新生儿,少于官方4.648亿新生儿的数据。
还有其他出席此次学术论坛的研究人员同意易富贤有关政府数据被夸大的理论,他们呼吁取消人口控制政策,改善数据质量。
据官方统计数据,去年印度的人口数量达到了13.3亿。中国2015年的官方人口数据是13.7亿。
报道称,随着人口开始老化,劳动力减少,中国于2011年逐步放松执行了几十年的独生子女政策。
报道称,现在中国拥有全球最多的60岁以上人口。2014年,60岁以上人口占中国总人口的15.5%。据联合国估计,到本世纪中叶,中国将有5亿60岁以上人口。
过去30年中中国经济迅速增长的一个重要特点是廉价的劳动力,但低出生率已经导致劳动力减少。
北京大学人口学家李建新说,政府高估了出生率,低估了人口变化的速度。(编译/林朝晖)
juetj4079
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Re: 美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
May 25, 2017, 03:54:29 AM
#2
数据不可能刚好,有误差正长
meng509
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Re: 美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
May 25, 2017, 04:09:47 AM
#3
所以现在开放2胎了
Lasercoin
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Re: 美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
May 25, 2017, 06:19:09 AM
#4
现在应该多些了
postures
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Re: 美学者:中国人口或比官方数据少9000万 高估了出生率
May 25, 2017, 09:40:05 AM
#5
人真多
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