[WE DID IT! IT is 20k!!!] We are still not in a bubble! 20k$ is INCOMING!

[KennyR]

I can't believe every single person in this topic just didn't get the main idea I stated in the OP. Maybe it was my fault, i just couldn't describe it.

Main Idea 1: The price what we have now is far from being a bubble. So it is perfectly safe to buy between 1.5k$-2.5k$range.

Main Idea 2: The recent pump (2.8k$) we had has a chance to trigger a major buy mania (take a look at the pink line again)  which will have a similar effect what we had with Gox and that bubble will have the top price of 20k$ if it happens in the next 3-4 months. This expectation is not certainty. It is a possibility.

The dude who created this assumes that bitcoin is following a pattern "bull, hype, bear," and all he does is wondering about if we will be in a hype phase again.

Main Idea 3: He already predicts that bitcoin will be at 5k$ price range in 2020 if nothing extreme happens.

Please post after you examine the graph and the notes beneath it.

1. So you are trying to say that a rise in price of 1,200% in 2 years is not a bubble? Has the intrinsic value of bitcoin risen by 1,200%? (hint: the answer is no) As a result, this is indisputably a bubble. It is absolutely not "safe" to buy bitcoin now, or really any time.

2. The recent pump to $2.8k WAS a buying mania! That was absolutely insane, billions were added and removed to the bitcoin market in a single day. That being said, there is still room for it to hit new highs before it crashes down to an appropriate and reasonable price far below where it is now.

3. This is reasonable, but it definitely will be a bumpy ride there.

That was a correction which happened from 200$ to 1k$. It did perfect safe in that timeline. 1k$ was bubble in 2013 but 2 years passed since then. What happened is a massive correction.

Again, pink line shows the max. normal price. The calculation is made by adding the time value of bitcoin. Anything over the pink line can trigger a bubble.

White line is average normal price.

That's a good explanation. What happened by the year 2013 is a bubble, because the price moves were very fast and everything got over in a very short time span. Now the correction phase and experts say it as a second wave where the first happened on 2013 and by the years to come can expect several such waves and third wave is expected to happen by the starting of 2018.

[ktabb]

I can't believe every single person in this topic just didn't get the main idea I stated in the OP. Maybe it was my fault, i just couldn't describe it.

Main Idea 1: The price what we have now is far from being a bubble. So it is perfectly safe to buy between 1.5k$-2.5k$range.

Main Idea 2: The recent pump (2.8k$) we had has a chance to trigger a major buy mania (take a look at the pink line again)  which will have a similar effect what we had with Gox and that bubble will have the top price of 20k$ if it happens in the next 3-4 months. This expectation is not certainty. It is a possibility.

The dude who created this assumes that bitcoin is following a pattern "bull, hype, bear," and all he does is wondering about if we will be in a hype phase again.

Main Idea 3: He already predicts that bitcoin will be at 5k$ price range in 2020 if nothing extreme happens.

Please post after you examine the graph and the notes beneath it.

1. So you are trying to say that a rise in price of 1,200% in 2 years is not a bubble? Has the intrinsic value of bitcoin risen by 1,200%? (hint: the answer is no) As a result, this is indisputably a bubble. It is absolutely not "safe" to buy bitcoin now, or really any time.

2. The recent pump to $2.8k WAS a buying mania! That was absolutely insane, billions were added and removed to the bitcoin market in a single day. That being said, there is still room for it to hit new highs before it crashes down to an appropriate and reasonable price far below where it is now.

3. This is reasonable, but it definitely will be a bumpy ride there.

That was a correction which happened from 200$ to 1k$. It did perfect safe in that timeline. 1k$ was bubble in 2013 but 2 years passed since then. What happened is a massive correction.

Again, pink line shows the max. normal price. The calculation is made by adding the time value of bitcoin. Anything over the pink line can trigger a bubble.

White line is average normal price.

Read my answer to your first question. That is the definition of a bubble. you are drawing arbitrary lines on a chart to fit your narrative and ignoring the facts of bitcoin's fundamentals, which all point to a clear bubble. 2013 was a bubble and so is this.

[mundang]

That is so impossible,bitcoin will not reached that price in 2-3 months from now . Even some speculators said that the price will bubble it doesnt mean that bitcoin will reached $20k.

[mindrust]

Read my answer to your first question.

Ok.

I'll bite.

1. So you are trying to say that a rise in price of 1,200% in 2 years is not a bubble? Has the intrinsic value of bitcoin risen by 1,200%? (hint: the answer is no) As a result, this is indisputably a bubble. *It is absolutely not "safe" to buy bitcoin now, or really any time.

2. The recent pump to $2.8k WAS a buying mania! That was absolutely insane, billions were added and removed to the bitcoin market in a single day. That being said, there is still room for it to hit new highs before it crashes down to an appropriate and reasonable price far below where it is now.

The movement from 200$ to 1500$-2200$ was an expected ride. Bitcoin was as low as 200$ and it slowly climbed up and up and up, recovered the losses and when it was doing that, it constantly got close to that pink line but never be able to pass through it. Check my more detailed graph below:

It tried to get through white line at 1, got hammered down. It tried it at 2 in late 2015, failed again. Last year in June bitcoin actually came close to the pink line but it failed again. Any time bitcoin gets close to that pink line there is a chance for a massive buy mania to happen.

And finally, recent at 5, it broke the line and the little mania got triggered. But it is only the preview of the real mania. 2.800$ wasn't a mania. It was the preview. Just like happened between 2013-2014. Patterns are incredibly alike.

I marked them for you. If you can't find any information from the graph down there, you can leave this thread and move on your life.

--------------------------------------------------------------

*It is absolutely not "safe" to buy bitcoin now, or really any time.:


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/projecting-price-bitcoin

[caldero]

$20000 is not possible without some major shift. It would require both ETF approval and segwit + hardfork being adopted without contention. Both of these things I think are very unlikely and as much as I want and wish bitcoin will rise so much I have to be realistic and accept its going to take much longer to achieve such a price.

[European Central Bank]

$20000 is not possible without some major shift. It would require both ETF approval and segwit + hardfork being adopted without contention. Both of these things I think are very unlikely and as much as I want and wish bitcoin will rise so much I have to be realistic and accept its going to take much longer to achieve such a price.

all it needs is more buyers than sellers. nothing else. when a bull market is on news has little effect. it works the other way too. bitcoin had incredible developments in 2014 but the price kept on grinding down.

[chaser15]

No matter how good a person is in reading charts, even explaining all the lines, indicators or whatever method they applied, still it's not a strong basis for price to reach the $20,000, and I doubt even at $10,000 it will struggle.

Bitcoin price can't always be predict if it's all about trading lines, those lines shows the past movement and "possible" moves in the future. What is the cause of that movement must consider. The obvious thing to happen while bitcoin is progressing, there will be some issues that will meet in the road. Whether it's good or bad, it will surely give impact to the price, donwtrend or uptrend.

[Wekkel]

all it needs is more buyers than sellers.

Exactly. People are more busy searching for the trigger for a move instead of figuring out the real reason. Lemmings (but it pays stock peddlers mightily  ).

[DustyRah]

The mining difficulty would have to rise through the roof for the price to hit $20,000. Miners would be doubling their hash power if the price were to rise so fast. In my opinion we will languish below 5k for the next year or two.

[Apraksin]

None who sat through 2013 can call what we've seen so far this year a bubble. The growth until now has been BTC finding it's natural price level.

WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF MAINSTREAM ADOPTION! I would not be at all surprised if we hit 20 K this year.

[ePesoInitiative]

None who sat through 2013 can call what we've seen so far this year a bubble. The growth until now has been BTC finding it's natural price level.

WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF MAINSTREAM ADOPTION! I would not be at all surprised if we hit 20 K this year.

More exchanges in more countries. Yeah, not yet the bubble.

[darkangel11]

No matter how good a person is in reading charts, even explaining all the lines, indicators or whatever method they applied, still it's not a strong basis for price to reach the $20,000, and I doubt even at $10,000 it will struggle.

Bitcoin price can't always be predict if it's all about trading lines, those lines shows the past movement and "possible" moves in the future. What is the cause of that movement must consider. The obvious thing to happen while bitcoin is progressing, there will be some issues that will meet in the road. Whether it's good or bad, it will surely give impact to the price, donwtrend or uptrend.

Your post is so typical. You should find some posts from 2013 and previous years and you'll see people were writing the same exact thing, but with different numbers.
If instead of $20000 and 10000 you put 2000 and 1000, that would place your post somewhere in the early 2013.

Of course, events will impact prices, nothing new, but $10000 is very probable with the current state of affairs. 

[el kaka22]

That is so impossible,bitcoin will not reached that price in 2-3 months from now . Even some speculators said that the price will bubble it doesnt mean that bitcoin will reached $20k.

A speculator does not need to be right all the times. Bitcoin may jump into any prices levels just due to some big investments. So, one single person also could make big differences in bitcoin prices. Imagine what will happen if some corporate start paying their employees in bitcoins. So, I too believe bitcoin may reach $20k levels too but the time frame will be a mystery.

[Snorek]

A speculator does not need to be right all the times. Bitcoin may jump into any prices levels just due to some big investments. So, one single person also could make big differences in bitcoin prices. Imagine what will happen if some corporate start paying their employees in bitcoins. So, I too believe bitcoin may reach $20k levels too but the time frame will be a mystery.

That is not something to push price of bitcoin. I expect that paying wages in bitcoin would have minimal impact on price of BTC.
I am sure that some, if not most of employees would refuse bitcoin anyway. We recently had big company accept bitcoin:
Fidelity Investments, integrated with Coinbase, started to mine mines Bitcoin and accepted Bitcoin at its cafeteria.

[ktabb]

The movement from 200$ to 1500$-2200$ was an expected ride. Bitcoin was as low as 200$ and it slowly climbed up and up and up, recovered the losses and when it was doing that, it constantly got close to that pink line but never be able to pass through it. Check my more detailed graph below:

You say this as if a movement from $200 to $1500-$2200 in 2 years is normal. This is ridiculously fast growth for any asset over a very short period of time. And what do you mean by saying it was an "expected ride"?

It tried to get through white line at 1, got hammered down. It tried it at 2 in late 2015, failed again. Last year in June bitcoin actually came close to the pink line but it failed again. Any time bitcoin gets close to that pink line there is a chance for a massive buy mania to happen.

And finally, recent at 5, it broke the line and the little mania got triggered. But it is only the preview of the real mania. 2.800$ wasn't a mania. It was the preview. Just like happened between 2013-2014. Patterns are incredibly alike.

We can argue about the definition of mania all day but the point is that there was a snowball effect that pushed the price up to $2800. I agree that this was not the peak and we will see higher prices soon, but nowhere near $20k.

I marked them for you. If you can't find any information from the graph down there, you can leave this thread and move on your life.

*It is absolutely not "safe" to buy bitcoin now, or really any time.:


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/projecting-price-bitcoin

The problem with your chart is the same problem with most technical analysis charts I see here... your line doesn't mean anything. You drew a line on the picture to fit your narrative. The line doesn't have any significance. It's not even straight or describable by a simple function... it's a kind of complicated and arbitrary line, looks more like a graph of natural log than anything.

The fact that the price passed your pink line doesn't mean anything. There is no special barrier at that point just because you drew a line there. You can stretch and skew a line and graph however you want to make it look like the price will do anything.

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

[European Central Bank]

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

you can have the exact same amount of intrinsic value, though there isn't much or any, and still have the price soar down to one thing and one thing only - more people want in. that's it. and there are many, many, many more people who will want in in the future.

[ktabb]

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

you can have the exact same amount of intrinsic value, though there isn't much or any, and still have the price soar down to one thing and one thing only - more people want in. that's it. and there are many, many, many more people who will want in in the future.

That's the point I'm making. If the price soars and the value doesn't, you create this big disparity that cannot sustain itself forever. Like I mentioned earlier, it's like stretching a rubber band. Everything must come down to reality eventually, or grow into its price. With bitcoin, it's likely to be a combination of both but weighted more heavily on the coming down to reality side.

[mindrust]

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

you can have the exact same amount of intrinsic value, though there isn't much or any, and still have the price soar down to one thing and one thing only - more people want in. that's it. and there are many, many, many more people who will want in in the future.

That's the point I'm making. If the price soars and the value doesn't, you create this big disparity that cannot sustain itself forever. Like I mentioned earlier, it's like stretching a rubber band. Everything must come down to reality eventually, or grow into its price. With bitcoin, it's likely to be a combination of both but weighted more heavily on the coming down to reality side.

Well, you are clearly having hard time to understand what bitcoin is about, what it has enabled, how useful it is, what potential it has and so on. I can't have a debate with someone like you about bitcoin anyway because anything i say will lead to a dead end on your side.

Just one question. How would you price bitcoin right now, if you were able to name a price freely?

100$?

1000$?

10k$?

100k$?

500k$?

1million$?

Just pick one. If you can't pick a price from the list above, then you should just stay quiet.

[ktabb]

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

you can have the exact same amount of intrinsic value, though there isn't much or any, and still have the price soar down to one thing and one thing only - more people want in. that's it. and there are many, many, many more people who will want in in the future.

That's the point I'm making. If the price soars and the value doesn't, you create this big disparity that cannot sustain itself forever. Like I mentioned earlier, it's like stretching a rubber band. Everything must come down to reality eventually, or grow into its price. With bitcoin, it's likely to be a combination of both but weighted more heavily on the coming down to reality side.

Well, you are clearly having hard time to understand what bitcoin is about, what it has enabled, how useful it is, what potential it has and so on. I can't have a debate with someone like you about bitcoin anyway because anything i say will lead to a dead end on your side.

Just one question. How would you price bitcoin right now, if you were able to name a price freely?

100$?

1000$?

10k$?

100k$?

500k$?

1million$?

Just pick one. If you can't pick a price from the list above, then you should just stay quiet.

What are you talking about? How is your comment here at all related to what you quoted? I completely understand bitcoin's potential and I've been following it for many years now, since well before the last bubble. I don't see how you can say that everything you say leads to a dead end on my side when I have rebutted every point you've made. You aren't making any sense here.

I'm going to answer your question by changing it to a better question, because the one you asked is on the right track but you phrased it poorly. You should really be asking what I think the market cap for bitcoin should be, which is still a difficult question to answer, but I will give it a shot. For the record though, I do not need to be able to pinpoint a value for an asset in order to tell you that it is over or under valued. That is not how finance works. You seem to have a pretty simplistic view of all of this.

Anyway, Bitcoin's market cap is currently roughly $40 billion. When Bitcoin's price skyrocketed in 2013, its market cap went from roughly $1 billion to $12 billion, and finally settled around $3.5 billion, where it stayed the most stable Bitcoin has remained over a 9 month period in a while. It pretty much stayed flat, as a currency should. I would argue that this is where the intrinsic value of bitcoin was at that time - around $250 or so per coin. This means that the events which pushed bitcoin up by 12x in 2013 really reflected only a 3.5x increase in bitcoin's value. The implication is that the bitcoin market likes to push the price up by about 3.43x (12 / 3.5) the amount that the value goes up by.

This now begs the question, where is the top of the current bubble? This is hard to say, so let's work with a range - let's say it is somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000. This means that the market cap would be between roughly $67 billion and $134 billion at the peak, and would imply an increase of somewhere between 5.6 and 11.2 times, assuming we mark the start of the bubble where the peak of the 2013 bubble was ($12 billion market cap). To find where bitcoin should be, we just divide these numbers by 3.43 (the amount by which investors tend to overbuy bitcoin) and multiply them by the market cap. The result is a range of $19.6 billion to $39.2 billion, which means the price of bitcoin should currently be between roughly $1,190 and $2,380.

So yeah that's a really big range, but it's hard to be precise. It is highly likely that bitcoin will fall on the lower end of that range when it finally settles. The higher end would only be likely if we see the price shoot up to around $8,000 in the next couple months.

BOTTOM LINE:

Anyway just to simplify all of this for you, in case you didn't bother to read it or you just dismissed it because you didn't understand it, we calculated that investors overestimated the increase in value of bitcoin by about 3.43 during the 2013 bubble. The degree to which investors overestimate the increase in value is not likely to be different this time. As a result, it is highly unlikely that the real value of bitcoin is greater than $2400, and more likely that it is closer to $1200-$1500 ish.

[tabas]

Who said it's a bubble? The normal popularity of bitcoin is increasing and I agree with this

all it needs is more buyers than sellers.

To make it possible the price of bitcoin reach $20k soon we need more investors that will generate profit to the old investors and the cycle goes one.