Speculating on the effect of UASF on the price of BTC

[Wind_FURY]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famously called UASF. What it will do is nodes that have it activated will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

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[BillyBobZorton]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famoualy called UASF. What it will do is nodes that it will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

ETH is under doubts of having some serious exploit that would allow people to steal people's ETH. Look at Romanov's twitter.

Im not sure if I want to put ETH hoping it's a safe place during any turbulence.

If miners decide to mine 10% on the BIP148 chain, there's still not much to worry about

At 20%, you have to start taking it serious

At 30%... anyone not holding BIP148 coins is insane

Any higher and snowball effect will kick in, BIP148 chain wins, legacy chain is destroyed, BTC gets segwit and defeats miners.

[MadGamer]

The UASF could make the price decrease but Its too soon to say, we need first to see what the services think about it and If they are going to support or not as not everyone made his mind yet. The way I see it is that the value of cryptocurrencies are not set by the marketcap but by the number of merchants, localshop, ATMs etc. It's also just a matter of supply, just like Ripple pumped their supply to gain a few billions in marketcap, It means nothing.

[Qartada]

Personally, if it happened and it was really unclean I'd be too terrified to sell.

"Do I sell the new chain?"
"Do I sell the old chain?"

The uncertainty might affect the market before the split happens, but after a majority chain becomes clear I think most of the funds would move back.

My reasoning for this is that Ether and Bitcoin prices are largely speculative.  If people put their money into Ether when a chain split was imminent, then Ether would stabilise as soon as funds stop moving out of Bitcoin (when the UASF finishes or fails).  Once Ether stabilises and people feel secure with Bitcoin, the FOMO starts kicking in as people feel like the Bitcoin returns are going to be higher than the Ether returns (not a lot).

[Wind_FURY]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famoualy called UASF. What it will do is nodes that it will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

ETH is under doubts of having some serious exploit that would allow people to steal people's ETH. Look at Romanov's twitter.

Link? For everyone's viewing pleasure.

Im not sure if I want to put ETH hoping it's a safe place during any turbulence.

If miners decide to mine 10% on the BIP148 chain, there's still not much to worry about

At 20%, you have to start taking it serious

At 30%... anyone not holding BIP148 coins is insane

Any higher and snowball effect will kick in, BIP148 chain wins, legacy chain is destroyed, BTC gets segwit and defeats miners.

The miners that are activating Segwit are 30% the last time I saw the chart. Do you think maybe most of them will support BIP 148?

[potatopower]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famoualy called UASF. What it will do is nodes that it will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

ETH is under doubts of having some serious exploit that would allow people to steal people's ETH. Look at Romanov's twitter.

Im not sure if I want to put ETH hoping it's a safe place during any turbulence.

If miners decide to mine 10% on the BIP148 chain, there's still not much to worry about

At 20%, you have to start taking it serious

At 30%... anyone not holding BIP148 coins is insane

Any higher and snowball effect will kick in, BIP148 chain wins, legacy chain is destroyed, BTC gets segwit and defeats miners.

Oh wow, never heard about it to be honest, do you have a link to that tweet? Most probably they would just do another chain split which would be just disastrous to ethereum and make the value go down really quick, though if uasf takes too long, bitcoin is going to be dropping as well. The future unfortunately is not too bright no matter what, either we might split the chain accidentally or centralize bitcoin and both of those things are really bad.

[gentlemand]

The miners that are activating Segwit are 30% the last time I saw the chart. Do you think maybe most of them will support BIP 148?

Why would they go from the best tested and established option to something that wild? It's technically sound of course in terms of code but a potentially vast shock to Bitcoin as a whole.

I don't have the slightest idea what'll happen myself at this particular moment. We'll have a much clearer idea as the day approaches.

[Kemarit]

I still really don't know what will the future of bitcoin be after August 1. So it can go either way, price go high/low. So the only option left for me is to hold on my bitcoin and see how it goes. I need to see things crystal clear before making my own decision.

And regarding ETH, the price is strong right now, breaking $200 which for me, a sign that ETH has indeed challenging bitcoin ecosystem. Seeing ICO's now having ETH as option for investments, I think it has a chance to take the no. 1 spot from bitcoin in terms of the marketcap. IMHO, if things didn't clear up after Aug 1.

[BillyBobZorton]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famoualy called UASF. What it will do is nodes that it will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

ETH is under doubts of having some serious exploit that would allow people to steal people's ETH. Look at Romanov's twitter.

Link? For everyone's viewing pleasure.

Im not sure if I want to put ETH hoping it's a safe place during any turbulence.

If miners decide to mine 10% on the BIP148 chain, there's still not much to worry about

At 20%, you have to start taking it serious

At 30%... anyone not holding BIP148 coins is insane

Any higher and snowball effect will kick in, BIP148 chain wins, legacy chain is destroyed, BTC gets segwit and defeats miners.

The miners that are activating Segwit are 30% the last time I saw the chart. Do you think maybe most of them will support BIP 148?

The thing is, we don't need most of them, we only need a small amount to start making everyone else nervous and seeing how the conservative move will be to mine the UASF chain because you risk being left behind with 0 coins.

The UASF activation works in a snowball/domino effect. If we can get 10%, the game is on.

[Asrael999]

If you don't move your coins between addresses and HODL then it doesn't matter which chain you are on. Your coins will be on both chains until you move them, only at that point does it matter, so just HODL and wait. Segwit activation will longer term be better for Bitcoin than the current shitshow the miners have created.

[Qartada]

As you all know, on August 1, there will be users who will try a user activated soft fork or famoualy called UASF. What it will do is nodes that it will start rejecting none Segwit nodes, risking a split in the blockchain. Depending on how much support it garners from the miners, the split might last a few hours, a few days or maybe longer.

If in case it lasts longer, how much would the price of Bitcoin be? Would it be low enough that we see Ethereum become no.1 in Coinmarketcap?

ETH is under doubts of having some serious exploit that would allow people to steal people's ETH. Look at Romanov's twitter.

Link? For everyone's viewing pleasure.

Im not sure if I want to put ETH hoping it's a safe place during any turbulence.

If miners decide to mine 10% on the BIP148 chain, there's still not much to worry about

At 20%, you have to start taking it serious

At 30%... anyone not holding BIP148 coins is insane

Any higher and snowball effect will kick in, BIP148 chain wins, legacy chain is destroyed, BTC gets segwit and defeats miners.

The miners that are activating Segwit are 30% the last time I saw the chart. Do you think maybe most of them will support BIP 148?

The thing is, we don't need most of them, we only need a small amount to start making everyone else nervous and seeing how the conservative move will be to mine the UASF chain because you risk being left behind with 0 coins.

The UASF activation works in a snowball/domino effect. If we can get 10%, the game is on.

I would say the most "conservative move" would be not to mine the new chain.  Unless merchants, exchanges and other Bitcoin-related groups nearly unanimously decide to exclusively accept the UASF chain, I would say the far more "conservative" choice would be to continue mining the old chain.

With 10-20% of the hashrate, sending Bitcoin transactions on the new chain would be extremely impractical until the split is resolved.  Therefore in that period, without extremely wide community support (even among those who wouldn't know enough about UASF) for the new chain, I can't see miners switching over.

"The game" is only on if we're talking about >30% hashrate (like all SegWit miners).  Even then it's risky.

[aso118]

The UASF could make the price decrease but Its too soon to say, we need first to see what the services think about it and If they are going to support or not as not everyone made his mind yet. The way I see it is that the value of cryptocurrencies are not set by the marketcap but by the number of merchants, localshop, ATMs etc. It's also just a matter of supply, just like Ripple pumped their supply to gain a few billions in marketcap, It means nothing.

The supply is not an argument in this case, because nothing fundamentally changes. We will have 2 coins (one of which will succeed quickly) and both will have the features of existing bitcoin - a supply cap of 21 million.

[pooya87]

if the ranking on the coinmarketcap is all you care then yes Ethereum will soon catch bitcoin and become number 2 and bitcoin will be number 3 (Ripple is already number 1).

but ask yourself if marketcap ranking is really valid? is Ripple with its pump and dump price and shitty centralized chain better than bitcoin? is it even being used?
same with ETH, for all we know they will soon experience a massive dump and price will start going down but to keep the marketcap rank they will hard fork and release a couple of hundred million coins to keep the marketcap up. and justify it with saying ETH tokens are burned,...

but do these really function better than bitcoin? of course not.