DASH Mining problems - algo DGW, difficulty adjustment.

[gl_daisy]

I'm working on a DASH mining profit calculator, and can't prove the difficulty adjustment formula with historical data in explorer.dash.org. Here my proven way, did I miss anything? It really confuse me. 

1.DASH difficulty adjustment formula, nextblockdifficulty = (currentblockdifficulty * 2 + sum(pre 23 blocks difficulty)/25 * ( 24 blocks targetimespan / 24 blocks actualtimespan).
2.I used the block data higher than #34140, which use the algo of DGW.

[1715390863]

1715390863

[1715390863]

1715390863

[bathrobehero]

Why do you need DGW/historical data for difficulty based profit calculation?

Current profitability, or how many seconds it will take on average to find a block with a given hashrate is: (2^32 * difficulty) / (hashrate * 1e6)

Hashrate in Mh/s.

[gl_daisy]

I want to add the factor of hashpower increase into this calculator. For example, I expect that hashpower of DASH will increase 50% in June and stable from Aug to Dec. So I need current difficulty and hashpower increase anticipation to calculate next difficulty. But it seems the difficulty adjustment formula I get from https://github.com/dashpay/dash/blob/master/src/pow.cpp#L83 is not the way how DASH actually adjust its difficulty. Maybe I misunderstand the formula. Any help is appreciate!   

[bathrobehero]

I want to add the factor of hashpower increase into this calculator. For example, I expect that hashpower of DASH will increase 50% in June and stable from Aug to Dec. So I need current difficulty and hashpower increase anticipation to calculate next difficulty. But it seems the difficulty adjustment formula I get from https://github.com/dashpay/dash/blob/master/src/pow.cpp#L83 is not the way how DASH actually adjust its difficulty. Maybe I misunderstand the formula. Any help is appreciate!  

"DGW uses multiple exponential moving averages and a simple moving average to smoothly adjust the difficulty".

The difficulty retarget will increase or decrease the difficulty based on the hashrate to try and aim for 2.5 minutes between blocks. But it's not predictable without knowing future hashrates and variance.

If you think the hashpower will increase 50% in June then profitabatility for the same hash will decrease 50%. The difficulty doesn't matter as long as the retarget is doing its job.

[gl_daisy]

Yes, you are right, it doesn't matter so much. I'm just confused by DGW, and I can't figure out why it been designed like this.