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Author Topic: Im fairly confident the NSA (US Gov) Can 51% Any Coin At Any Time  (Read 7044 times)
cdog (OP)
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May 04, 2013, 12:42:01 AM
 #1

LINK TO WIRED ARTICLE: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/all/

Im dont have a degree in computer science and couldnt do any calculations even if we had real numbers about just how powerful the NSA's combined hashing power is, but given the scale and rate of development of massively parallel computing power the NSA has developed for code breaking, and given that they employ thousands of the smartest and best programmers and cryptographers in the world, and given that they have an unlimited budget, its seems obvious to me that the US Gov could have the NSA 51% attack any coin at any time. They have machines which make your Avalon look like a Casio watch from 1980.

Sorry for the downer, and hey at least Bitcoins have bounced back a little today. But to me this seems to be by far the biggest threat to Bitcoin and all the altcoins. Sorry if this has been posted or discussed here before, I did a quick search but didnt find much.

"the agency has not finished building at Oak Ridge, nor is it satisfied with breaking the petaflop barrier. Its next goal is to reach exaflop speed, one quintillion (1018) operations a second, and eventually zettaflop (1021) and yottaflop."
BTCLuke
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May 04, 2013, 12:55:27 AM
 #2

Those are CPU cycles though...

Are they developing large amounts GPU or ASIC archetecture for SHA hasing?

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May 04, 2013, 12:57:37 AM
 #3

They cannot. However, if they accept rather high cost at now visible gain the US is one of the powers still able to 51 Bitcoin.

It won't be that long though and the incentive isn't high enough. After that, Bitcoin is immortal.
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May 04, 2013, 12:57:55 AM
 #4

Holy shit!  1021 operations per second!  You weren't kidding about the 1980 Casio watch!

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May 04, 2013, 12:59:29 AM
 #5

So whats the solution here? Is there a solution?

Cheaper ASICS distributed to more people?

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May 04, 2013, 01:02:08 AM
 #6

So whats the solution here? Is there a solution?

Cheaper ASICS distributed to more people?

Patience (seems like a rare commodity amoung these parts)
BTCLuke
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May 04, 2013, 01:28:09 AM
 #7

Cheaper ASICS distributed to more people?
That would be it.

Someday I'd expect something better than ASICs to be made too... We'll need to distribute that new tech out all again when that happens too.

Luke Parker
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May 04, 2013, 01:32:16 AM
 #8

The NSA devices must be fine tuned to Double SHA256 calculations to have even remote chance doing 51% attack on Bitcoin. And this will be one-shot wonder weapon.

To take away any coin at any time they must have guaranteed way to calculate private key from bitcoin address. Unlikely to happen.

As the USA government invests more time and research in waterboarding techniques than Bitcoin ASIC devices I will not worry about NSA attacking Bitcoin at all. The datacenter is for analyzing all Facebook and e-mail messages to calculate the exact time when You will put on suicide belt.

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cdog (OP)
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May 04, 2013, 02:21:50 AM
 #9

The NSA devices must be fine tuned to Double SHA256 calculations to have even remote chance doing 51% attack on Bitcoin. And this will be one-shot wonder weapon.

I really hope Im wrong and Im sure Im not the first person to consider this. Also, a 1 billion dollar market cap currency isnt a threat to the dollar.

But what about 10 billion? 100billion? 1 trillion? 10 trillion? When do they decide to pull the trigger, if they could?

Why cant they just write Bitcoin hashing code for their existing code breaking machines, fork the chain, invalidate all our coins, and then go back to hacking your Facebook to learn grandma's secret pie crust recipe?
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May 04, 2013, 02:24:58 AM
 #10

bullshit

bitcoin is the most powerful computing effort undertaken by humans to date...by an order of magnitude and then some

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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May 04, 2013, 02:26:33 AM
 #11

LINK TO WIRED ARTICLE: http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/03/ff_nsadatacenter/all/

Im dont have a degree in computer science and couldnt do any calculations even if we had real numbers about just how powerful the NSA's combined hashing power is, but given the scale and rate of development of massively parallel computing power the NSA has developed for code breaking, and given that they employ thousands of the smartest and best programmers and cryptographers in the world, and given that they have an unlimited budget, its seems obvious to me that the US Gov could have the NSA 51% attack any coin at any time. They have machines which make your Avalon look like a Casio watch from 1980.

Sorry for the downer, and hey at least Bitcoins have bounced back a little today. But to me this seems to be by far the biggest threat to Bitcoin and all the altcoins. Sorry if this has been posted or discussed here before, I did a quick search but didnt find much.

"the agency has not finished building at Oak Ridge, nor is it satisfied with breaking the petaflop barrier. Its next goal is to reach exaflop speed, one quintillion (1018) operations a second, and eventually zettaflop (1021) and yottaflop."

Without ASICS they would have trouble getting enough power into any known facility.  If it is not ASIC they would not be able to do it easily even with a large budget.  

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May 04, 2013, 02:31:52 AM
 #12

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2917/how-fast-is-the-bitcoin-mining-network

The biggest challenge will be to stay one step ahead of exa, zetta and yotta as they come.

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May 04, 2013, 02:44:18 AM
 #13

I can assure you that the NSA has bigger things to worry about than bitcoin.

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May 04, 2013, 02:58:40 AM
 #14

CIA to NSA:"WTF dude? We just finished the transition from cash in shopping bags and you did this?"

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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May 04, 2013, 02:59:30 AM
 #15

The american intelligence agencies have no incentive to bring down bitcoin. Unless the NSA receives an executive order to kill bitcoin, they simply won't do it.

The revolution begins with the mind and ends with the heart. Knowledge for all, accessible to all and shared by all
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May 04, 2013, 03:12:27 AM
 #16

The american intelligence agencies have no incentive to bring down bitcoin. Unless the NSA receives an executive order to kill bitcoin, they simply won't do it.
& the CIA's jurisdiction is outside the USA. If anything, they would benefit from BTC because they can do all manner of covert payola ops to foreign bad guys and the like. If Ollie North had btc he would have never got caught. my guess is they already have btc and are looking to move it on to all the shifty terror groups they do business with on a daily basis. crime pays, especially if you the gubmint!
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May 04, 2013, 03:46:01 AM
 #17

I totally agree with the OP. If some school kids can buy chips in China for some 20M USD, then the CIA can do so, too. Just for context: 20MUSD is about the amount the USA print every 15 minutes at least for the next 3 years.

Bitcoin definitely has made it on their radar, too.

My conclusion is that we already have the blessing of these circles. One version would be that Satoshi is the CIA. After all the $$ will fail, so what else would you do? Gold standard? Bitcoin is much easier to accumulate in the USA than gold. We know that at least 1 million BTC never moved and most likely are in the hands of Satoshi. We don't know how many of all the later coins also went back to Satoshi. Maybe Bitcoin is a scheme to aggregate 50% in the USA with controlled increase in popularity until 2020. Maybe the $$ crashes earlier.

Well, I bought some mɃ earlier today. No matter if it's the mark of the beast with full support by the US government or the cool free money we all dream of, I believe it will live. A 51% attack is not the end of it all. We will find a way.

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May 04, 2013, 04:15:54 AM
 #18

& the CIA's jurisdiction is outside the USA. If anything, they would benefit from BTC because they can do all manner of covert payola ops to foreign bad guys and the like

This.
and you don't need to create an entirely new system of ASIC hardware that would stick out like a sore thumb.  

much easier and cheaper for covert agencies, hack people, hack the trust system.

i.e. let's talk destabilisation conspiracies.

step 1, create a screen and cover identity for one group, the hook, and the bait.
all you need to do is set up a large pool and invite people in, as to create a poisoned network node for confirming a larger pool, this needs to be "super secure" and well respected. think p2pool. this would be the security bait.

step 2, destabilise the other large pools and select a nominal target, so you can create a monopoly from the rubble, a big fish.

step 3, find an insecure server that hosts a large 40% pool, set up a tap/backdoor on the machine(s), insert your double-spend or false transaction record binary instructions into custom compiled pool daemon's and regular people will do the hard work of hiding data in the network.

step 4, establish trust in the big system and the little system at the same time, so that a general public will believe in following/propping up the big fish, while detail oriented people will move towards the security bait which has the hook.

step 5, you can keep the big fish away from the hook for as long as you need the system to work to do what you want it to.
after which, you can remove either the fish or the hook, and the system won't notice the loss. remove both, and tampering becomes more obvious.

The reality of doing this would be difficult to hide due to crypto being rooted within the protocol itself, it's the confirmations, or lack of, that matter in this kind of setup. The best analogy would be FOX news. you don't need to create or mock up news from scratch to insert a message, all you need to do is modify the content a little bit and then repeat the process, the other networks will propagate the false news as if it were accurate, forcing others to also confirm the "new" news.

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May 04, 2013, 04:42:46 AM
 #19

When the bitcoin market cap is 1 trillion, the mining network hardware would be worth roughly 10B at minimum, so the NSA need to at minimum invest 10B to have a remote chance to 51%, also the government usually can't work that efficiently, more like 30B investment. Good luck getting that budget passed in Congress.

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May 04, 2013, 05:05:09 AM
 #20

So whats the solution here? Is there a solution?

Cheaper ASICS distributed to more people?

Already solved. AMD stock up 5% today on news 3rd gen video game platforms will be chock full of Hash power.

We call it the Strategic Hash Reserves.

This after recent reports of video game companies operating mines with customers' in-home compute cycles...

Feel free to send along any spare floating point remainders: 1CVTqVbqHTw35xGKfp4vmxggKdkMVwswtr
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