if you are just investing in Bitcoin now, you're an early adopter or innovator

[jonald_fyookball]

its still very early.  You think $2500 is nice? You ain't seen nothing.




to the moon!

[couture]

How are you classifying this current time as innovator to early adopter? I like the sound of being early but I am just wondering how we are confirming these data?

[Juggy777]

Sadly most of us fall in late majority and late laggards including me, and to believe my bad luck I was offered Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 and I decided to walk away, without even seeing them and now look where they are. Ps we already crossed moon, next stop is Mars let's hope we get there sooner than later. But I do want to know how are you sampling the data, there no poll or how did you reach a % could you elaborate on that point? Ps which stage are you?

[YuginKadoya]

Sadly most of us fall in late majority and late laggards including me, and to believe my bad luck I was offered Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 and I decided to walk away, without even seeing them and now look where they are. Ps we already crossed moon, next stop is Mars let's hope we get there sooner than later. But I do want to know how are you sampling the data, there no poll or how did you reach a % could you elaborate on that point? Ps which stage are you?

But I think it is still early to say that it is too late to invest with bitcoin because bitcoin price is still rising a significant height and I think we could really see it this year and I am talking about the $3000 mark value is the target right now and might come a long way in years and years to come so just invest, earn, and hold bitcoin for your future benefits don't look back and just spread to other people about the great deal with bitcoin because it is not really too late.

[Scorpion]

I learned about Bitcoin 2011 but even today in 2017 I am telling people we're still in cryto infancy. One way of thinking about this is if you save up for one whole Bitcoin mathematically in absolute certain terms you could only be 1 out of 21,000,000 people who own a Bitcoin. Well it goes deeper since we know only 16,367,963 Bitcoins have been mined at this very moment. So you could be 1 out of 16,367,963.

But... it goes a little deeper.

Out of 16,367,963 Bitcoin holders, some very lucky people hold 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 100, 1,000 or more...

Deeper... some people lost their wallets, hard drives, or died holding Bitcoin...

If 100,000,000 people learned about cryptocurrency and tried to acquire a whole Bitcoin - the price would be insane. 3,200,000,000 people will have access to the internet by the end of this year. There's 7,500,000,000 people in the world and growing!

[Iranus]

I'm certain we're no longer "innovator" stage, but we're in late "early adopters" stage.

Definitely not.  There's absolutely no chance that as much as 2.5% of the population is using and/or holding Bitcoin right now.

We're still right at the bottom of that curve, frankly.  Even if you look at a terrible measure of crypto wealth like market cap, cryptocurrencies are still shockingly insignificant.

It's interesting how people who are part of something new tend to assume the best of other people because they try their best to get other people involved.  

People like to try and convince themselves that they're actually later than they are because of:

1. Their confidence in the technology.
2.  Their pessimism, and feeling like the best opportunities are behind them.

[TryNinja]

Definitely not.  There's absolutely no chance that as much as 2.5% of the population is using and/or holding Bitcoin right now.

We're still right at the bottom of that curve, frankly.  Even if you look at a terrible measure of crypto wealth like market cap, cryptocurrencies are still shockingly insignificant.

It's interesting how people who are part of something new tend to assume the best of other people because they try their best to get other people involved.  

People like to try and convince themselves that they're actually later than they are because of:

1. Their confidence in the technology.
2.  Their pessimism, and feeling like the best opportunities are behind them.

When you look one year behind and see the Bitcoin price at $1000, of course people will feel like they lost the opportunity of their lives. That's just natural from the human being, that always wants more.

Just imagine how small Bitcoin's performance is in the world rn.

- We can say that almost nobody in the world uses Bitcoin compared to the fiat.
- Very few places that accept Bitcoin in the world. In Brazil only in the largest metropolitan centers such as São Paulo has some place that accepts Bitcoin, and is still limited.
- We are still facing the huge scalability problem.

All this and the price of Bitcoin is still at $2500. That's why I can't really imagine how anyone still thinks Bitcoin is already expensive.
They will the same thing when the price goes to $5000... and at $10.000 again...

[jonald_fyookball]

Sadly most of us fall in late majority and late laggards including me, and to believe my bad luck I was offered Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 and I decided to walk away, without even seeing them and now look where they are. Ps we already crossed moon, next stop is Mars let's hope we get there sooner than later. But I do want to know how are you sampling the data, there no poll or how did you reach a % could you elaborate on that point? Ps which stage are you?

great news: you are totally wrong. lol... you ARE in the early adopter phase...most ordinary people dont have bitcoin yet.

time to load up the boat!

[Red-Apple]

what else is new!
i have been hearing this each year when price rises. people get excited and start singing the early adopter songs and to the moon ones and each time there is someone who says some random number and calls it the top.
it was $500 2 years ago then it was the old ATH of $1200 and now the $2700 and will continue on.

and all of them always forget that bitcoin is still tiny. we have not yet even started the early adoption phase

[Kabul]

I have joint the bitcoin world for more than 1 year and I think that I am a person who likes to learn new thing and live to make money. Well, honestly, we all love money, right? that is why we come here together

[bitbunnny]

I'm in Bitcoin since 2013 but I don't think I'm early adopter, although I wish I was. If you look at situation now like this is only the begininig of the big price rise then is still not to late to join the Bitcoin world. You have all the good chances to make the profit so don't miss the opportunity to make your life better.

[White sugar]

There is no way to know for sure where we are now in the bell curve. Only hope

[unamis76]

Seems to me a bit too much optimistic to assume we're in the Early Adopter stage... However we're probably still in the Early Majority phase.

Regarding blockchain technology and how we conduct transactions using it... If we look at it from that perspective, then we're at the Innovators stage

[Qartada]

Seems to me a bit too much optimistic to assume we're in the Early Adopter stage... However we're probably still in the Early Majority phase.

Is everyone on this thread out of their mind?  The number of unique Bitcoin addresses used per day is around 500,000.  If we're very optimistic, that could be a few million active users and potentially some HODLers or traders as well.

That would put us at about 0.1% (absolutely right at the start of the innovator phase) max, if we assume that Bitcoin will actually match that adoption curve.

Stop thinking about things based on what you see today and assuming that everyone is into crypto just because you are.  Nearly no one actually is - many have heard of it but very few have got involved.

Regarding blockchain technology and how we conduct transactions using it... If we look at it from that perspective, then we're at the Innovators stage

Don't know why you just suggested the opposite then.

[cellard]

It depends on how good august goes with UASF-NYCfrankensegwit camps fighting... if we can reach an agreement backed by Core devs, $100,000 is on sight in the next decade.

If we fuck it up and bitcoin hardforks into two coins, it's pretty much over, we'll go back in time several years. Nobody is going to trust bitcoin as a store of value if it can hardfork.

So if hopefully Jihan Wu and the big blocker loons cooperate, we may have a good outcome.

[bouren]

Nicely depicted! Yes, we are still in range of 'innovatory' and $2500 is surely not the best of bitcoin.
Now we are talking of the time where bitcoin is being accepted legally in few major countries and soon will be legally transit in 90%+ countries of the world. So we can easily expect bitcoin to be $10,000 soon. So here we are all among that top 1% population comprising btc investors. If we don't gonna be fix atm, we may loose big in future.

[unamis76]

Is everyone on this thread out of their mind?  The number of unique Bitcoin addresses used per day is around 500,000.  If we're very optimistic, that could be a few million active users and potentially some HODLers or traders as well.

That would put us at about 0.1% (absolutely right at the start of the innovator phase) max, if we assume that Bitcoin will actually match that adoption curve.

Stop thinking about things based on what you see today and assuming that everyone is into crypto just because you are.  Nearly no one actually is - many have heard of it but very few have got involved.

I'm probably wrong, but I do feel that quite a reasonable amount of people has seen Bitcoin at least once and many of them are actually using or have used it. Comparing to a few years back, mainstream interest is much bigger. We see many "newbies" asking for input and tutorials on how to buy and transact comparing to previous years. Thus why I wrote what I wrote.

I know many people aren't into crypto (at least I don't personally know anyone who is). However we've got quite a lot of people online interested. Besides, we're way past the time when Bitcoin was "the new thing".

Regarding blockchain technology and how we conduct transactions using it... If we look at it from that perspective, then we're at the Innovators stage

Don't know why you just suggested the opposite then.

I don't see why my post suggested the opposite? Blockchain technology and how we transact using it is very, very different from Bitcoin. They're two things in their own. Bitcoin will probably be insufficient in the future for worldwide usage. New coins will cease being issued around 2140 as per estimations. Bitcoin also has a scaling issue that we can't solve in a future proof way, at least for now. The possibility of Bitcoin evolving so much that it we won't be able to call it Bitcoin anymore or the possibility of having to replace it has been discussed in the community for years. What if something bigger and better than Bitcoin comes in 20 years? Pretty much nothing is eternal, and Bitcoin will likely die somewhere in the distant future. However, the idea of a blockchain will remain and the idea of money free from government control will too. So yes, we are at an infant stage of blockchain technology and its money transacting capabilities, in my opinion.

[European Central Bank]

i think we're still at the start of the early adopters phase.

anyone coming out with late majority, go climb a mountain and get some perspective. that's ridiculous.

[Qartada]

Is everyone on this thread out of their mind?  The number of unique Bitcoin addresses used per day is around 500,000.  If we're very optimistic, that could be a few million active users and potentially some HODLers or traders as well.

That would put us at about 0.1% (absolutely right at the start of the innovator phase) max, if we assume that Bitcoin will actually match that adoption curve.

Stop thinking about things based on what you see today and assuming that everyone is into crypto just because you are.  Nearly no one actually is - many have heard of it but very few have got involved.

I'm probably wrong, but I do feel that quite a reasonable amount of people has seen Bitcoin at least once and many of them are actually using or have used it. Comparing to a few years back, mainstream interest is much bigger. We see many "newbies" asking for input and tutorials on how to buy and transact comparing to previous years. Thus why I wrote what I wrote.

The number of active users on the forum is around 100,000 ("active" being users who were created more than 30 days ago and logged in within the last 30 days - theymos' info from this thread.  Considering that this is by far the biggest and most relevant Bitcoin forum, that should be a telltale sign.  Furthermore, it seems unusual that something with over 13.5% of the population using it would have a specific forum for discussion about it - you can't really imagine a "fiat forum".

Many people have heard of and seen Bitcoin, but whether this means that they use it is completely different.  And when we see "mainstream coverage" we focus on it too much and overestimate its power, just because we're into Bitcoin already.

I know many people aren't into crypto (at least I don't personally know anyone who is). However we've got quite a lot of people online interested. Besides, we're way past the time when Bitcoin was "the new thing".

You're right, I also don't know anyone else who's into crypto in real life.  That would suggest to me that the amount of people who actually are is less than 13.5%, since I know more than 7.407 people.  Of course this could just be a coincidence, but there are no reasonable indicators that more than a few million people are using or holding cryptocurrency.

Let's just go for the end of the innovator phase - 2.5% of the current population (rounded to 7.5 billion) would be about a hundred and eighty seven million five hundred thousand people.  Based on the statistic of unique addresses used in a day on blockchain.info, that many people would only send a transaction to a unique address every... several years.

Regarding blockchain technology and how we conduct transactions using it... If we look at it from that perspective, then we're at the Innovators stage

Don't know why you just suggested the opposite then.

I don't see why my post suggested the opposite? Blockchain technology and how we transact using it is very, very different from Bitcoin. They're two things in their own.

All users of Bitcoin are users of blockchain technology, because Bitcoin is blockchain technology.  Therefore it's impossible for the number of users of blockchain technology to be fewer than the number of Bitcoin users.

[pixie85]

I went in when it was at $800 and I thought I came late to the party, but the party hasn't even begun. You're right about these prices. If Bitcoin can double in value in a month it can do it again in a year with ease. I'm sure we're not even half way into the final prices, that is if Bitcoin can survive for another 2-3 years.