What if May 2017 marks the top?

[qwik2learn]

On May 18, Deribit futures exchange wrote:

Monthly and Quarterly Future
As many of you would already have noticed we introduced a Monthly future and the market is quoted really tight. Often there are spreads of just $0,01! As of time of writing there is an annualized premium of 172% on the Monthly and 51% on the Quarterly. Want to go long, short or hedge your position? Come check it out now!

Today these rates are dramatically lower, at 5% and 7%.
What can the contango in futures tell us about where price is headed? Premiums for bitcoin in Asia are also not as extreme, prices in krw have fallen by 33% in that overheated market: https://www.korbit.co.kr/market
This article asks about the real use case of bitcoin, a call for caution:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/raoul-pal-slams-bitcoin-“it’s-not-store-value-people-thought-it-was”
Another well-written call for caution from early May:
https://www.dash.org/2017/05/03/Cryptosphere.html

[d5000]

It's totally possible. Above all, if the Segwit stalemate continues or there is risk of a chain split.

If there are good news regarding scaling (an ample compromise with Core developers involved) I expect another leg to the upside, but no run up to $10,000 for example (the maximum if really everything goes well should be <5000$).

But this statement of Raoul Pal is totally flawed (link fixed):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/raoul-pal-slams-bitcoin-%E2%80%9Cit%E2%80%99s-not-store-value-people-thought-it-was%E2%80%9D

If core developers are talking about changing the Bitcoin code or how it works, what happens if – at some future point – they decide to allow the number of coins to expand?

"Core developers" would have zero chances with this, because nobody would use their client upgrade. They cannot force you to use the client with the higher number of coins. The only power group that could enforce that are miners, but then a hard fork with a mining algorithm change ("nuclear option") would be the most probable outcome.

[freedomno1]

It's not impossible Bitcoin has been both the worst performing investment of a year and also the best performing investment of the year we know that their is a fork issue on the horizon and whether that creates uncertainty and price collapse is one possible outcome that would make May and June a good time to sell. But since that is a few months away its likely we will keep this trend into June maybe early July before that split issue pokes its ugly head out.

[xypos]

I do think that bitcoin is a good store of value in the long term although it may be prone to price fluctuations in the short term. There are going to be cycles of pump and dump, and each item the cycle is going to readjust with inflation levels, or somewhere close to inflation levels.

Bitcoin is definitely in a Bubble and as you said overseas exchanges have called down, and they are a good btc price forecast. However I'm still in bitcoin for the long term.

[Yuhee]

It's not impossible Bitcoin has been both the worst performing investment of a year and also the best performing investment of the year we know that their is a fork issue on the horizon and whether that creates uncertainty and price collapse is one possible outcome that would make May and June a good time to sell. But since that is a few months away its likely we will keep this trend into June maybe early July before that split issue pokes its ugly head out.

This times also marks a great change in btc including prices, advertisements, countries investing in it and it's fame. More and more people or businessmen rather are now trying to make something out of btc. Especially when the price hit 2800$ that is way to high to just ignore and businessmen wouldn't want to be late for this trade. This year also made many projects surface. And Eth also is having a high increase which many people are interested to invest in.

[freedomno1]

It's not impossible Bitcoin has been both the worst performing investment of a year and also the best performing investment of the year we know that their is a fork issue on the horizon and whether that creates uncertainty and price collapse is one possible outcome that would make May and June a good time to sell. But since that is a few months away its likely we will keep this trend into June maybe early July before that split issue pokes its ugly head out.

This times also marks a great change in btc including prices, advertisements, countries investing in it and it's fame. More and more people or businessmen rather are now trying to make something out of btc. Especially when the price hit 2800$ that is way to high to just ignore and businessmen wouldn't want to be late for this trade. This year also made many projects surface. And Eth also is having a high increase which many people are interested to invest in.

Pretty much we have extremely bearish rationale and extremely bullish rationale at present that are attracting users to Bitcoin and scaring people away from entering into Bitcoin at present the bullish trendline is clearly showing who is boss but whether that can last when the troubled waters are straight ahead is the real question. Of course when you factor in ETH is at 50% market cap that is an interesting and notable number 2 jump that can't be ignored and is worth noting so lot of interesting factors in play.

[ktabb]

This would be possible but I doubt it. A peak of $2,800 would represent a significantly smaller bubble than how bitcoin has behaved in the past. I don't think it will be as large as 2013, which was a ~1,000% rise, but I think we'll see a peak between $4,000 and $5,000 in the next few months.