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三思加密货币泡沫
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Topic: 三思加密货币泡沫 (Read 256 times)
asdin66fa
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三思加密货币泡沫
June 05, 2017, 07:14:12 AM
#1
暴走时评:冷静理智的警告也不能浇灭人们对加密货币ICO的热衷,其中一个原因是此类文章并没能深入剖析。对ICO项目的深刻认识当然是一个避免风险的重要条件,然而目前大多数人并不具备这样专业的技术和投资知识。因而文章从三个被忽略的角度探讨ICO,包括类似股市泡沫,却并没有其法律支撑的代币;投机活动与代币价格的必然联系;价格波动驱动市场买卖的短视行为。
翻译:Annie_Xu
尽管过去两周发布了大量警告加密货币泡沫的文章,可是其中许多的分析过于简单,完全围绕着主流代币的价格上涨和狂热的ICO,认为它们是货币价格必须下降的原因。
一些精明的投资者呼应了该情绪,只是观点更加精细:长期潜力巨大,短期价格未知,因此不要让投资暴露在大规模下落风险中。显然这是个好建议。
似乎ICO代币发行模式的热度不低。
许多此类代币协议和app的预设情形很有意思,只是市场证据不足。按照传统投资指标,它们价格的“风险—回报”似乎并不高,即使精明的投资者也无法做到更好。除非你深入了解新代币的详情,对其价值的观点明确,否则这更像是在赌博,而不是投资。
我认为,比特币和以太币不一样。它们的远期成功并没有足够证据,但是这些协议做了很多风险规避。它们有活跃的开发生态、多元的所有权数据库和高度流动性的交易。
在这样的背景下,我想说三点目前不怎么探讨的观点:
1、股市泡沫并不足以描述目前的情形
人们可以理智的说,股市表现和现金收益预测过高评估估价。在互联网泡沫中,Internet Capital Group公司收入7000万美元,净损失1.5亿美元,市值飙到560亿美元。不需要多好的数学就可以理解这种业务是不可能带来支撑这种价值的利润的。
比特币没有可比性:作为独立于任何收益流和生产用途的价值单位,比特币的总供应量没有受到经济产能的限制。巴菲特等人对比特币和黄金等资产的看法是负面的,并且规避缺少现金流来源的资产投资方式。
但是作为货币单位,意味着比特币的价值可以持续高于大多数现实世界商业的速度增长,因为没有商品和服务开发的限制,唯一的限制是多少人相信其储值方式的合法性。
世界相信黄金是安全存储万亿美元价值的可靠方式,如果他们也这样信任比特币,未来它的价值将是目前交易价的100–1000倍,并且这个上涨的速度将和人们买进的速度持平。
2、也许是投机者推动比特币和以太币价格上涨。
然而与股市泡沫不一样,新买家的加入实际上增加了底层代币的价值。
其价值(尽管供应量是固定的)只是源于产品的稀有性,这与持有者数量直接相关。特斯拉股票的新购买者并不增加其业务的长期现金流,但是每个决定比特币价格的新的投机者对比特币网络价值上涨具有极大价值。
比特币成功的话,很可能会出现许多关键拐点,更大的接受度将使其价值在这些拐点上上涨。
3、根据价格波动来买进卖出是短视行为
是的,也许够聪明或幸运的你可以赚到一些快钱,可是如果你是为了100–1000倍的潜力,靠小动作“获得利润”是压路机前捡硬币。
如果巴菲特或者摩根大通(JP Morgan)一鸣惊人,宣布明天把所有筹码押在比特币上,使得一夜之间价格增加10倍,并且保持在这个水平,不再下跌,会怎么样呢?
如果你卖出,就会后悔的。
Marilu Aijala
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Activity: 102
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Re: 三思加密货币泡沫
June 05, 2017, 01:29:51 PM
#2
注意风险啊
Hu-Ge
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Merit: 10
Re: 三思加密货币泡沫
June 07, 2017, 06:51:58 AM
#3
厉害了
FAzuming Xidu
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Activity: 80
Merit: 10
⇾
Re: 三思加密货币泡沫
June 07, 2017, 12:54:18 PM
#4
如果你卖出,就会后悔的。
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