Is Avalon behind the recent price drops?

[TheJuice]

Right now the largest BTC purchases are miners buying asic chips through Avalon and BFL. If you add up the revenue for avalon just with batch 3 and the 10,000 chip orders, avalon at last check has received 100,000 BTCs. Now what does avalon do with these coins? A large number need to be converted to fiat to pay for production costs. Let's say only 50% of coins needs to be sold to make enough fiat profit to order the chips. That is still 50,000 coins. Or $5000000 leaving the BTC "realm."

If one sold 50,000 coins at once it would push mtgox down to 80. I'm sure avalon doesnt use that, but both big dips happened after batch 3 sold and after the 10,000 order sets sold...

 

[byronbb]

Interesting theory. If one had such large coin holdings to sell they could very much profit greatly as well dumping into market with shorts or just well positioned bids.

[Crypt_Current]

Sounds plausible.  So what?  I mean, what's to be gained from this info?

It could mean that when more BFL customers start getting their ASIC equipment, price could spike down at that point as well.  But by the time we get there, the price will have climbed -- so the spike down will be to ?  100?  150??  Seriously man, cheap coins are not going to be cheap anymore.

[ineededausername]

I tried to refute this theory last time someone posted it, but it seems like it does have some correlational confirmation...

[xorglub]

Possible. It looks like the first dumps when we were at $140 were all from a single or a few individuals. Then the panic started.

[01BTC10]

I think the drop was insider knowledge of the Coinlab lawsuit against MtGox.

[Zaih]

Sounds viable. I'm sure they would have planned their sell off though. They would obviously understand that selling all at once would not be in their best interest.

[dropt]

...I'm sure avalon doesnt use that...

 

What are the chances Avalon's involved in an underground Chinese exchange?

[byronbb]

Sounds plausible.  So what?  I mean, what's to be gained from this info?

It gives you an identity of those behind the massive sell off, quells concern it's the illuminati or that there is yet to be revealed "bad news".

[dropt]

Someone on the custom hardware thread was tracking payments for chip orders and claimed that not a single bitcoin had moved.

Is there actual evidence of coins in Avalon addresses moving to exchanges?

IIRC only a certain percentage could be tracked.  Is there any further information regarding Avalon's address(es) associated with chip sales?

[GigaCoin]

IF this is bad, what about when BFL decides to dump ?

[MartinReynolds]

IF this is bad, what about when BFL decides to dump ?

BFL doesn't hold coins.  They have used Bitpay to get dollars for any bitcoin purchases from the outset.

Their lack of confidence in bitcoin was one of many red flags for me.

I'm sure they have mined quite a few in their time.

[seleme]

Or Asicminer, the biggest miners out there but lovebaby nobody mentions because lot of people own their shares and don't want to ruin it's perfect image.

Those chips that are bringing their hashpower to 16TH, as well as many other expenses to run such operation are certainly not paid in btc

[ChanceCoats123]

I've not done business with Avalon, but they don't use Bitpay like BFL, do they?

[CanaryInTheMine]

Or Asicminer, the biggest miners out there but lovebaby nobody mentions because lot of people own their shares and don't want to ruin it's perfect image.

Those chips that are bringing their hashpower to 16TH, as well as many other expenses to run such operation are certainly not paid in btc

They are about to take orders for USB Miners in batches of 300.  I setup a group buy here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195647.0

[Raize]

Right now the largest BTC purchases are miners buying asic chips through Avalon and BFL. If you add up the revenue for avalon just with batch 3 and the 10,000 chip orders, avalon at last check has received 100,000 BTCs. Now what does avalon do with these coins? A large number need to be converted to fiat to pay for production costs. Let's say only 50% of coins needs to be sold to make enough fiat profit to order the chips. That is still 50,000 coins. Or $5000000 leaving the BTC "realm."

If one sold 50,000 coins at once it would push mtgox down to 80. I'm sure avalon doesnt use that, but both big dips happened after batch 3 sold and after the 10,000 order sets sold...

While correlation doesn't equal causation, you are correct in that one would be a complete fool to ignore the fact that a huge amount of coin has moved through the hands of BitSyncom et al. His network of college friends and others working with xiangfu and ngzhang definitely need paid.

Smart money would say that they'd work with an exchange to accumulate funds on behalf of that exchange, which would then sell existing coin they hold in anticipation of receiving coin from the 50k address for the chip orders at a later date. That address might not even be owned/run by the Avalon team, it could just be where the payments are going for the transaction processor, who will only start to tap into those funds when their present funds have been sold/spent via whatever algorithm their bots are trading at.

[seleme]

Or Asicminer, the biggest miners out there but lovebaby nobody mentions because lot of people own their shares and don't want to ruin it's perfect image.

Those chips that are bringing their hashpower to 16TH, as well as many other expenses to run such operation are certainly not paid in btc

They are about to take orders for USB Miners in batches of 300.  I setup a group buy here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195647.0

I know, wouldn't touch it with barge pole though.

They are certainly selling lot of coins, if they do it on responsible way or not, I don't know and wouldn't speculate it nor it's my business, someone is and will do it, them or someone else. But it was interesting that nobody mentioned them. Or it wasn't