Bitcoin is to stable

[arepo]

...snip...
Its 2322.  I have an order to buy 200 for 114.1.  Are you saying that I am too cautious and should set it to $101.1?

depends entirely on what time-scale you're trading. plus, the above targets are estimates, a proper hedge would be a bidspread.

Off to bed now.  Lets see if $101.1 will have been breached when I wake up.

probably not. like i said, the wedge still has about 24 hours to close.

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[Rampion]

in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ?

but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted

nope. i will shortly be taking a break from posting analysis altogether, precisely because of shit like this. i don't post so i can crow about it later, i post so we can discuss it. i'm suffering an information loss every single time i post my playbook, so stop it with the backlash.

Keep up the good job arepo, a lot of us enjoy your posts and your wonderful analysis. Just don't listen to the critics man, you always provide useful insights.

[SAQ]

in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ?

but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted

He predicted a breakout down. That usually means up.

What makes you say down arepo?

[Odalv]

in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ?

but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted

nope. i will shortly be taking a break from posting analysis altogether, precisely because of shit like this. i don't post so i can crow about it later, i post so we can discuss it. i'm suffering an information loss every single time i post my playbook, so stop it with the backlash.

so your prediction was no low than 100 higher than 150 and then crash 150-0

[Edit: first crash to 0 and then above 150 ?]
[Edit2: I finally understand  100-150 range for the next 3 days and some crash to ZERO in the middle]

[Rampion]

I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one.

And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation

All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too

[CasinoBit]

I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one.

And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation

All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too

"Cash-out fiat", wondering when will people cash out in BTC 

[arepo]

He predicted a breakout down. That usually means up.

What makes you say down arepo?

actually, my last two calls in the wall thread panned out pretty well. ($90 bottom, $118-$107 correction)

as for the direction, wedge formations are usually continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.

so your prediction was no low than 100 higher than 150 and then crash 150-0

[Edit: first crash to 0 and then above 150 ?]
[Edit2: I finally understand  100-150 range for the next 3 days and some crash to ZERO in the middle]

let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).

[Malawi]

I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one.

And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation

All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too

"Cash-out fiat", wondering when will people cash out in BTC 

When you can buy more stuff with BTC.

regarding other posts in this tread: It's better with 10 wrong prediction posts than 1 moaning-post.

[arepo]

Keep up the good job arepo, a lot of us enjoy your posts and your wonderful analysis. Just don't listen to the critics man, you always provide useful insights.

thanks, btw i'm taking a break because i've been daytrading this volatility 24-7 since early April, but there's going to be a quiet period soon and i need a break haha. i'll be back, i appreciate the support

edit: shoutout to M.Gedi as well

[michaelGedi]

in fact, we're nearing a day-scale breakout of a wedge formation from the $80 bottom. we'll be moving within 24 hours, don't worry.

... and up, or down? That is the question.

for those who need a translation, this is a wedge formation. and the most likely scenario, from my analysis, is a breakout down but no lower than $100, and then a slow rise to no higher than $150 before Wednesday's crash.

and what is your "Wednesday's crash" ?

but if price falls under 100 or go above 150 then arepo will say "I told ya, I was right" :-) .. any price under current market price, or above current market price or even same ... arepo predicted

nope. i will shortly be taking a break from posting analysis altogether, precisely because of shit like this. i don't post so i can crow about it later, i post so we can discuss it. i'm suffering an information loss every single time i post my playbook, so stop it with the backlash.

Keep up the good job arepo, a lot of us enjoy your posts and your wonderful analysis. Just don't listen to the critics man, you always provide useful insights.

+1

ignore button and/or laugh...

some people get very bored spending all day on their computers and therefore need outlets - just look at smoothie

[Malawi]

let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).

I don't have the grasp on technical analysis, but would expect the wedge to end up slightly lower than where it started. Then a bit of correction either up or down before heading in a new direction.
Assume you are bullish, while I am bearish ATM, would that explain the different takes?

Anyways - any good links to learn a bit more about tech analysis?

[Rampion]

I say down because there's a huge lot of people who bought at $10ish and is still sitting on huge profits, while seeing how a bubble bursted and may be impatient to cash some fiat... And also because it feels like this last correction to $80 was not the last one, as we have seen in all major speculative bubbles bursts, including the 2011 Bitcoin one.

And huge $2M bid wall appearing suddenly on a weekend after a crash seems fishy enough to fuel my speculation

All this is not very scientific, I know - but guys following TA seem to agree too

"Cash-out fiat", wondering when will people cash out in BTC 

Personally, I always try to increase my BTC stash, that's the only reason I'm actively trading. But I acknowledge that for many people (perhaps the majority investing considerable amounts of $) BTC is just a short to mid term investment to generate fiat profits - thus I know that a lot of them are willing to take their x10 profits very soon after the parabolic growth has stopped.

[arepo]

let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).

I don't have the grasp on technical analysis, but would expect the wedge to end up slightly lower than where it started. Then a bit of correction either up or down before heading in a new direction.
Assume you are bullish, while I am bearish ATM, would that explain the different takes?

Anyways - any good links to learn a bit more about tech analysis?

$80 really looks like a short-term bottom (see high-volume doji candle), and i've been following a triangle consolidation model since the 10 April crash that's done an excellent job so far of determining the tops and bottoms of these oscillations. we're not going to see 'serious' price movement until we complete this consolidation.

-===-



-===-

two possible triangle shapes are shown.

as for learning more, simply google search the terms "wedge, triangle, oscillator," etc, and read. then try to apply your knowledge with basic falsifiable hypotheses. make note of the outcome, and in the case of a falsified hypothesis, try to determine what your model failed to account for, fix the model, and repeat.

that's honestly all i've been doing

[michaelGedi]

that's honestly all i've been doing Tongue

with a background in physics..

[Malawi]

Gotta do some searching and reading.

You offc know more about this than me, but to me it seems like those white lines should be closer at the left end, with the upper one resting on the second red candle and the lower one pulled up a bit as those are just wicks and represent small volumes.

[arepo]

Gotta do some searching and reading.

You offc know more about this than me, but to me it seems like those white lines should be closer at the left end, with the upper one resting on the second red candle and the lower one pulled up a bit as those are just wicks and represent small volumes.

yes, one always struggles with the problem of outliers in analysis of data. these lines are estimates, of course, exactly for the reason you pointed out.

the technique that seems most successful, however, is to draw the largest possible triangle because smaller triangles have a tendency to be nested fractal patterns and simply break out into the largest triangle over the course of the consolidation.

[SAQ]

He predicted a breakout down. That usually means up.

What makes you say down arepo?

actually, my last two calls in the wall thread panned out pretty well. ($90 bottom, $118-$107 correction)

as for the direction, wedge formations are usually continuation patterns, not reversal patterns.

so your prediction was no low than 100 higher than 150 and then crash 150-0

[Edit: first crash to 0 and then above 150 ?]
[Edit2: I finally understand  100-150 range for the next 3 days and some crash to ZERO in the middle]

let me clarify -- move up slightly to complete the wedge, break out down no lower than $100, then slow climb no higher than $150, then another correction (no target for this).

If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

[arepo]

If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

because there are other indications that the short-term bottom is in (see the triangle consolidation model), whereas we're talking about a 3-day wedge pattern ('microterm'). time-scales are important.

[SAQ]

If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

because there are other indications that the short-term bottom is in (see the triangle consolidation model), whereas we're talking about a 3-day wedge pattern ('microterm'). time-scales are important.

The triangle model seems to suggest that we are going up to around 125-130. Are you saying we will go down to no more than 100 in 3 days or that the next price move to break this "stability" is going to be downwards? If the latter, I do not see why that should be the case.

[arepo]

If they are a continuation pattern, why should the price break down to no lower than 100?

because there are other indications that the short-term bottom is in (see the triangle consolidation model), whereas we're talking about a 3-day wedge pattern ('microterm'). time-scales are important.

The triangle model seems to suggest that we are going up to around 125-130. Are you saying we will go down to no more than 100 in 3 days or that the next price move to break this "stability" is going to be downwards? If the latter, I do not see why that should be the case.

the small movement down that i'm predicting isn't going to break the triangle consolidation model, that's going to continue for the next 2-4 weeks, based on the chart.

also, remember that just because the price has the 'space' to go up to $125 doesn't mean it will, it just means it won't go over that target.

see this thread for discussion about the micro-term prediction. the move no lower than $100 corresponds to a 24-hour window.