EFT blocked was the day BTC fell off a cliff in market share

[jubalix]

So I was interested to look at the market dominance of BTC from coin cap.

It appears that on or around March the 10th 2017, when the EFT was rejected, BTC lost is promise of incoming funds, the market was left without a means to capital raise for crypto from legacy fiat.

https://www.scribd.com/document/341525335/SEC-Bitcoin-ETF-Rejection#from_embed

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (Release No. 34-80206; File No. SR-BatsBZX-2016-30) March 10, 2017 Self-Regulatory Organizations; Bats BZX Exchange, Inc.; Order Disapproving a Proposed Rule Change, as Modified by Amendments No. 1 and 2, to BZX Rule 14.11(e)(4), Commodity-Based Trust Shares, to List and Trade Shares Issued by the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust

As it turns out it appears the market did not want to wait, and went to ETH token sales as a defacto capital raising, eft option.

This analysis seems to fit the narrative of whats has and is happening



we were kinda looking the wrong way our minds on FIAT not the implications in crypto

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[spiderbrain]

Food for thought, thanks.

[South Park]

Good analysis, but then does this means we are in an altcoin bubble, or more specifically a ETH bubble? There seems to be a reason for this, as you point out, but to be honest I think we are going to see a massive drop on ETH on the next months and bitcoin will once a gain gain bigger dominance, not as big as the one it had one year before but I think something in the range of 60 to 70% dominance.

[Torque]

So a *bunch* of hot money came flooding in to the sidelines, waiting to hear the good news from the SEC about the COIN ETF.

Instead they heard bad news.

So what to do with all the hot money now? Can't just continue to pump Bitcoin on bad news. That wouldn't really work. And without an ETF, there's no good leverage over such a big market.

Time for Plan "B". But what to do?

Oh, I got it! FUD the shit out of Bitcoiners with BU fork fears, while using the hot money to simultaneously pump the altcoins! Flip all the emotional clueless pleebs out of their bitcoin and diversify them into all the shitcoins! They're so stupid and greedy that they will fall right into the trap.

It's the perfect plan!

[NUFCrichard]

Agree with the above, someone or many people had money ready to buy as soon as the decision was made.
They said no, so they moved into Ripple and ETH, if they had said yes, the price would be nearer $4000 now.

I hadn't noticed that the ETF day was the breaking point day, but it does make sense that it was.

I still think that a Bitcoin ETF is a bad idea anyway. GLD and SLV are bad for Gold and Silver.

[Torque]

I still think that a Bitcoin ETF is a bad idea anyway. GLD and SLV are bad for Gold and Silver.

Yeah I agree. At first I thought it might be a good thing, but now I definitely don't. Honestly I hope it never happens to Bitcoin.

[Asrael999]

It's all ok - now we can use Bancor to create Bitcoin ETFs without any SEC involvement

[gentlemand]

Yup. You can pretty much time it to the minute.

If it had passed then alts would've cratered at least temporarily, and this bubble wouldn't have existed. Bitcoin would've stepped up to a level of legitimacy that none of them could've matched.

[talkbitcoin]

what is ethereum? a platform for smart contracts
what are smart contracts used for? to create new ICOs.
what are ICOs? new altcoins, with nothing to offer but a way for the developer to get some quick money for doing practically nothing
how can one buy into these ICOs? only with ETH tokens!
is there any other usage for ETH? No!

so yeah ethereum's market cap is pretty real... and it has lots of real world applications... also transaction fees are super cheap on average of $1.4

[alyssa85]

That's a really interesting chart. I guess the smart money is trying to hedge by investing in alts in case bitcoin doesn't make it. This hard fork coming up in August is bound to make bitcoin holders feel even more vulnerable.

[monbux]

Yup. You can pretty much time it to the minute.

If it had passed then alts would've cratered at least temporarily, and this bubble wouldn't have existed. Bitcoin would've stepped up to a level of legitimacy that none of them could've matched.

This. A little sad to think. It's ok, they are only delaying the inevitable... but I admit I would've preferred a smoother run.

[lionheart78]

Seems a perfect timing for ETH market, people waiting to for SEC to say yes for Bitcoin ETF but rather they got no so fund move somewhere, and a perfectly timed UN distribution to some refugees using ETH.  A perfect timing indeed, but I do not think that Bitcoin really need this ETF, we have seen several sample where ETF approval does not always bring good thing.

[Rahar02]

Seems a perfect timing for ETH market, people waiting to for SEC to say yes for Bitcoin ETF but rather they got no so fund move somewhere, and a perfectly timed UN distribution to some refugees using ETH.  A perfect timing indeed, but I do not think that Bitcoin really need this ETF, we have seen several sample where ETF approval does not always bring good thing.

What do you mean? Really need ETF but its approval doesn't always bring good thing? Your words at cross purposes.
It has been proven that ETF news made bitcoin price increases, but I didn't heard anything about last ETF review by SEC on May 15^th, anyone could enlighten about it?
However, even though without ETF, bitcoin still rise steadily every year, it just time matter until more investors decide to invest massively on bitcoin with or without SEC approval.