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Author Topic: ASIC Avalon Batch #3 - Payoff Speculation  (Read 2949 times)
Waramp22
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May 06, 2013, 04:33:48 AM
Last edit: May 06, 2013, 04:40:13 AM by gmaxwell
 #1

Litecoin miner here....Ive got a contact who offered to sell me his Batch 3 Avalon for 14,000USD.
I'm just looking at the long term risks of this. Bitcoin appears to be here to stay. Assuming that by the time Batch 3 hits, (probably August/September) the worst case scenario for me would be the difficultly can possibly quadruple from 10,076,293 to 40,000,000. At this rate, with a conservative price of $80USD/bitcoin it would take roughly 8 months to pay off. Thoughts? I realize this is all speculation, but how much are these things going for a the moment?

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CanaryInTheMine
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May 06, 2013, 04:37:01 AM
 #2

Litecoin miner here....Ive got a contact who offered to sell me his Batch 3 Avalon for 14,000USD.
I'm just looking at the long term risks of this. Bitcoin appears to be here to stay. Assuming that by the time Batch 3 hits, (probably August/September) the worst case scenario for me would be the difficultly can possibly quadruple from 10,076,293 to 40,000,000. At this rate, with a conservative price of $80USD/bitcoin it would take roughly 8 months to pay off. Thoughts? I realize this is all speculation, but how much are these things going for a the moment?

Wrong sub-forum for speculation
mgio
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May 06, 2013, 04:43:03 AM
 #3

Don't do it.

Batch 2 hasn't even shipped yet, so batch 3 is a ways off.

You can buy batch 2 avalon miners on ebay for about the same price (15 to 20k). I wouldn't buy a batch 3 miner right now because the uncertainty of when you will actually receive it.

If you get it after Butterfly Labs starts shipping and they actual ship 400 units a day like they claim they will (it's doubtful, but you never know) then your avalon miner could be worthless.
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May 06, 2013, 04:45:35 AM
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Another issue, even if difficulty has only quadrupled when you receive in in August or September, the difficulty will continue to go up as other miners continue to ship. A difficulty of a couple hundred million by the fall/winter is not that unlikely. So while you might be on track to pay off your miner for the first 2-3 months, there is no way it will keep up for 8 months until you've made back your investment. If you are going to buy a miner, only pay as much as you can expect to make back in 3 months or so.
Waramp22
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May 06, 2013, 05:27:36 AM
 #5

If i could get a "deal" on it, couldnt i mine a different SHA256 coin with a lower difficulty and convert it on Vicurex in order to pay it off?

and in the mean time pray that the difficulty doesnt skyrocket any faster than it has from January - May....

Scammed by Black Arrow? See the consumer complaint thread here -
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KS
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May 06, 2013, 06:56:34 PM
 #6

Based on this table https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.msg1919283#msg1919283

I wouldn't spend more than 10K on it if it got delivered in August. Less if after...

“In Putin’s Russia bitcoin exchanges you.” - http://www.coindesk.com/ceo-bitcoin-officially-bans-china/
List of major BTC scams https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337
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bennybong
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May 06, 2013, 09:12:24 PM
 #7

Thinking of selling one of my batch #2 Avalons...
mgio
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May 06, 2013, 10:12:51 PM
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Thinking of selling one of my batch #2 Avalons...

I'd buy one of your batch 2 avalons bennybong.
computerparts
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May 06, 2013, 11:45:37 PM
 #9

I wouldn't give two shits for a batch 2.
Waramp22
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May 07, 2013, 12:52:01 AM
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Thinking of selling one of my batch #2 Avalons...

How much and when is it shipping?

Scammed by Black Arrow? See the consumer complaint thread here -
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May 07, 2013, 09:18:04 AM
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As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...
KS
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May 07, 2013, 07:21:20 PM
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I'm interested.

“In Putin’s Russia bitcoin exchanges you.” - http://www.coindesk.com/ceo-bitcoin-officially-bans-china/
List of major BTC scams https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337
Bitstamp "no transfer" banks/countries list: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270716.0
mgio
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May 08, 2013, 06:06:07 AM
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As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...


75BTC is a very good deal. I'd be interested.
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May 08, 2013, 09:01:26 AM
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As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...

Open an auction thread and start the bidding at 75 BTC. You should be able to get more than that pretty easily.
bennybong
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May 08, 2013, 10:02:41 AM
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As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...

Open an auction thread and start the bidding at 75 BTC. You should be able to get more than that pretty easily.

I am getting quite a lot of offers, none have quite done it for me yet. In a perfect world I would like £20,000 in whatever form it comes Wink
KS
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May 08, 2013, 01:00:12 PM
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As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...

Open an auction thread and start the bidding at 75 BTC. You should be able to get more than that pretty easily.

I am getting quite a lot of offers, none have quite done it for me yet. In a perfect world I would like £20,000 in whatever form it comes Wink

No problem. If it's delivered within the week I'll add a 10% bonus. I can have the £22.000 chocolate coin ready tomorrow. PM me if you're interested. Smiley

“In Putin’s Russia bitcoin exchanges you.” - http://www.coindesk.com/ceo-bitcoin-officially-bans-china/
List of major BTC scams https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337
Bitstamp "no transfer" banks/countries list: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270716.0
bennybong
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May 08, 2013, 01:03:21 PM
 #17

As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...

Open an auction thread and start the bidding at 75 BTC. You should be able to get more than that pretty easily.

I am getting quite a lot of offers, none have quite done it for me yet. In a perfect world I would like £20,000 in whatever form it comes Wink

No problem. If it's delivered within the week I'll add a 10% bonus. I can have the £22.000 chocolate coin ready tomorrow. PM me if you're interested. Smiley

£22,000 WORTH of chocolate coins and you've got a deal!

Just need find a buyer for a shit ton of chocolate coins.... Might start a new thread.  Grin
KS
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May 08, 2013, 01:28:56 PM
 #18

As you can imagine, I'm having a hard time valuing it. I'm thinking 75BTC, possibly more...

Open an auction thread and start the bidding at 75 BTC. You should be able to get more than that pretty easily.

I am getting quite a lot of offers, none have quite done it for me yet. In a perfect world I would like £20,000 in whatever form it comes Wink

No problem. If it's delivered within the week I'll add a 10% bonus. I can have the £22.000 chocolate coin ready tomorrow. PM me if you're interested. Smiley

£22,000 WORTH of chocolate coins and you've got a deal!

Just need find a buyer for a shit ton of chocolate coins.... Might start a new thread.  Grin

Let me check my supplier Grin

“In Putin’s Russia bitcoin exchanges you.” - http://www.coindesk.com/ceo-bitcoin-officially-bans-china/
List of major BTC scams https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337
Bitstamp "no transfer" banks/countries list: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270716.0
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