I fear - BTC is set for another downturn

[WackyWilly]

Hi all,

I'm anxious about current price formation. For one, MtGox is once again showing tremendous lag (about 1 minute, that's just insane). Something seems to be fucking up their systems again. Even though big orders came through just during the last minutes, those participants were not able to push the price above $123 / $124 per BTC.  [edit : I see the lag is now back to normal, but clearly something was going on around the $123 level ]


http://imageshack.us/a/img853/6358/92943265.png


NOTE: this happens at an inflection point in the chart (the downward sloping trend line).

But most important of all, what I'd like to point at, are the volume characteristics of recent. These volume characteristics are definitely NOT healthy. For if a trend remains in tact, VOLUME should always support PRICE movement. After the initial crash ($266->$50) we've seen a wild rally back to $160. That was on decreasing volume compared to the volume during the preceding shake-out (but OK, it was a shake out). The 2nd part of the rise to $166 acutally showed an increase in volume, a peak, and falling volume on the price decline $166 -> $120. That would have been a positive, if only... the price would not have broken down again (all the way to $79) on an increase in volume.

That latest increase in volume (on a price decline) was already a negative for any price appreciation.  To make things worse, however, the recent upturn, from $79 to $124 today, is happening on considerable smaller volume. In other words, volume does not support the recent price appreciation either.


http://imageshack.us/a/img835/9416/chartro.png


Given all of these circumstances, the most likely thing to happen is another leg down (full disclosure: for that reason I bailed out of my entire position).
If the new leg down materializes, it can easily set BTC back into the range of $50 - $80. That would hurt.

Expect massive selling (and unreachable exchanges  ) if that happens. Should all this not materialize, I'll be happy to buy me my bitcoins once the markets looks healthy again. Be it at a higher price, I'm perfectly okay with that since that would greatly reduce my risk. Right now, the market simply does not look healthy.

"And hey, listen... be careful out there"  

[proudhon]

Cool story bro.  There's a whole forum for this.

[knybe]

And the sky... She just might be falling.

[WackyWilly]

And the sky... She just might be falling.

I don't know that and neither am I claiming BTC will die. I'm not a BTC basher. On the contrary. But when it comes to be "in" or "out" of a market, I am not willing to take unnecessary risk.

Currently, the risk vs. reward to hold on to your BTC is not good at all IMHO.


(BTW, a falling BTC price would by nature be more likely than a falling sky    )

[WackyWilly]

Cool story bro.  There's a whole forum for this.

Errr... sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.
You mean the "market" forum or so?

[MartinReynolds]

Hey, it's the risk you take with Bitcoin. I just generally think it will always rise up again.

[wumpus]

Cool story bro.  There's a whole forum for this.

Errr... sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.
You mean the "market" forum or so?

Speculation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

[RodeoX]

I hope to see another drop. I waited all weekend for a buy opportunity and it just kept going up.

[WackyWilly]

Hey, it's the risk you take with Bitcoin. I just generally think it will always rise up again.

Yes, I am fully aware of its ups & downs. The only question is: will it start moving up again from current $120 or from a far lower point? It's all about perspective. Price wise, and BTC-holder wise. If you're one of those very early adopters buying in at $1, $5 or so I hail thee for having a better and early insight into BTC than I ever had. Then that's definitely good for you & thumbs up  

[WackyWilly]

Cool story bro.  There's a whole forum for this.

Errr... sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.
You mean the "market" forum or so?

Speculation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Thanks for that, will keep it in mind for next time!

[WackyWilly]

I hope to see another drop. I waited all weekend for a buy opportunity and it just kept going up.

Here is some extra analysis - mainly using PRICE action as a starting point.
However I twist this thing, I just happen to see red flags everywhere. Until they are resolved, I'm out.

I definitely expect you will be able to get into BTC at a more favorable rate.
I'm not in for doom & gloom, but I will be re-evaluating my stance at these levels $102 - $97 - $80 - or beyond

http://imageshack.us/a/img822/1121/chart2x.png

[Malawi]

(BTW, a falling BTC price would by nature be more likely than a falling sky    )[/i]

That depends... A sky is a collection of water vapor, when it gets dense enough it falls in the form of rain/snow/hail.

[oda.krell]

Appreciate the analysis, OP. I think you're reading maybe a bit too much into the 'volume doesn't support price action' bit... you have a point there, but it looks relatively minor to me, but the conclusion you draw is rather drastic (selling your entire btc position, if I understood you correctly). Nonetheless, I see things similar to you: we'll probably see another drop soon, but not much below 100, if at all.

[SAQ]

There was low volume because it was a weekend.

[oda.krell]

There was low volume because it was a weekend.

His argument, if I understood it correctly, was not the overall lack of volume, but that volume did not correspond with a positive price development, e.g. when price went up, volume was low, and the only times when volume was comparably high, the price went down.

[UltimateReaper]

Things have been kinda funky lately. The fact we went all the way to 50 is what amazes me most. It's not like I think we'll ever see that again but all we have is history to look back to with BTC. Who knows.

[mgio]

I don't know what you are talking about.

The volume does not look any different than normal.

And you have offered no evidence that the price is going to drop other than voodoo TA BS.

The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.

[Anth0n]

The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.

That's already priced in. If it goes to $150, that will not be the reason.

[notme]

Cool story bro.  There's a whole forum for this.

Errr... sorry if I posted this in the wrong place.
You mean the "market" forum or so?

Speculation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

Thanks for that, will keep it in mind for next time!

Umm...this is in Speculation.

It got moved..... Boy am I glad we have you to set us straight .

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197045.0

[Rampion]

$50-$80 would hurt?

Cheap coins never hurt.