Rising difficulty - thoughts

[IamRune]

What are your thoughts on the rising difficulty of ethereum?
Looks like network difficulty has almost doubled since April.
Could be an interesting 6 months in the mining scene.
Especially with the shortage of 570/580s yet increase in difficulty.
I'm curious to see the effects of Vega. 

My setup netted me about 20 Eth/month a few months back now I'm getting roughly half that.
Which has been terrific with the increase in price, but we might be in for a break even period.

My thoughts are when the difficulty of eth makes it unprofitable people will swap coins which will do great things for the other Alts.

[adaseb]

What are your thoughts on the rising difficulty of ethereum?
Looks like network difficulty has almost doubled since April.
Could be an interesting 6 months in the mining scene.
Especially with the shortage of 570/580s yet increase in difficulty.
I'm curious to see the effects of Vega. 

My setup netted me about 20 Eth/month a few months back now I'm getting roughly half that.
Which has been terrific with the increase in price, but we might be in for a break even period.

My thoughts are when the difficulty of eth makes it unprofitable people will swap coins which will do great things for the other Alts.

VEGA won't have any affects because its a flagship model that sold in small quantities.

Right now your worry should be the difficulty doubling again in 1 or 2 months and the ice-age getting worse and giving us 30 second block times instead of 15 in August. So most likely if Metropolis isn't released by August, difficulty will be quadruple of what it is today.

[Tmdz]

For the ice age I have this quote from Buterin on the next fork

"In general, if we get it out before the end of June it’s even better, and if we get it out before the end of August that’s still, like, less bad. My recommendation is probably still end of June as a … normal case target and end of August as a worst case deadline"

For difficulty it only took about 5 weeks to double and the price is starting to get stable around the high $300 close to $400 range

So a example estimate

 Today 164 mh = $1000 month

~ July 24 = $500 month

~ September 1 = $250 month

~ October  7  =  $125 month

This is assuming a static price with a static climb in difficulty, the climb will begin to slow as profit margins become thin for people and the gold rush ends.  I think realistically you can expect profits to get pretty thin around November or December at best, unless price goes up.  Vega will be a non issue, even if it did amazballs with hashing the limited units would be a drop in the bucket.

[zorvalth]

For the ice age I have this quote from Buterin on the next fork

"In general, if we get it out before the end of June it’s even better, and if we get it out before the end of August that’s still, like, less bad. My recommendation is probably still end of June as a … normal case target and end of August as a worst case deadline"

For difficulty it only took about 5 weeks to double and the price is starting to get stable around the high $300 close to $400 range

So a example estimate

 Today 164 mh = $1000 month

~ July 24 = $500 month

~ September 1 = $250 month

~ October  7  =  $125 month

This is assuming a static price with a static climb in difficulty, the climb will begin to slow as profit margins become thin for people and the gold rush ends.  I think realistically you can expect profits to get pretty thin around November or December at best, unless price goes up.  Vega will be a non issue, even if it did amazballs with hashing the limited units would be a drop in the bucket.

This would be true if there were unlimited gpu quantity, but most is sold out.Peaople start mining with 1050ti and 560 but there being sold out fast too. Also RX is starting to loose hash over time like it was with tahiti 18  months ago. On epoch 155 the RX would be around 22 mh which results in diff decrease.

[bibyfok]

Take a look at this, it take the difficulty into the equation:
http://www.mycryptobuddy.com/EthereumMiningCalculator/path?hashrate=126&powerCost=0.08&power=700&chartView=profits

[Juggar]

Not looking good profit wise over the next 6 months if you were to get in now. Ether needs to go up with the rising difficulty, as it has been.

Its still profitable to mine just not nearly as lucrative as it once was, Invest $1300 into a 5 x 1060 rig and youll see ROI right around 3 months, the next 3 after that only net you an additional $700. That is if prices remained around $370 and the difficulty increasing at current rate. According to the dynamic calculator above.

Now you would obviously dual mine SIA for an additional $70 per month and that helps but unless Eth doubles in price I dont see how this can hardly be lucrative now.

Either people majorly jump ship or the price of eth must double in the coming months, otherwise getting into mining now doesnt make sense unless you want free hardware after 3-6 months. when you hit ROI.

Im just one guy and ive got over 500 mh/s running in my spare bedroom in the last month, I can only imagine the thousands more that did the same or much more.

[adaseb]

This would be true if there were unlimited gpu quantity, but most is sold out.Peaople start mining with 1050ti and 560 but there being sold out fast too. Also RX is starting to loose hash over time like it was with tahiti 18  months ago. On epoch 155 the RX would be around 22 mh which results in diff decrease.

RX series and 380 and 290/390 don't lose speed with DAG increases. Its only Pitcairn and Tahiti that do that.

For difficulty it only took about 5 weeks to double and the price is starting to get stable around the high $300 close to $400 range

So a example estimate

 Today 164 mh = $1000 month

~ July 24 = $500 month

~ September 1 = $250 month

~ October  7  =  $125 month

This is assuming a static price with a static climb in difficulty, the climb will begin to slow as profit margins become thin for people and the gold rush ends.  I think realistically you can expect profits to get pretty thin around November or December at best, unless price goes up.  Vega will be a non issue, even if it did amazballs with hashing the limited units would be a drop in the bucket.

I think this is "BEST" case scenario. Most likely by July 24th i'd see it more like $250 month even with a static price. By I think Aug 1st or so, the block times will be 30 seconds.

[poby]

At eth profitability decreases, more miners will start mining other altcoins, causing their difficulty to drastically increase so by the end of this year there will be very little profit to be made in eth and very little in any other altcoin.  From 2018, average profit per card will likely be around $2 a day, before deducting electricity cost.

[zorvalth]

RX series and 380 and 290/390 don't lose speed with DAG increases. Its only Pitcairn and Tahiti that do that.

Make me a favour and run a claymore on RX with -benchmark 135, -benchamrk 155 and -benchmark 199 if you dont have any RX gpus, i will be happy to show you screenshots RX and Tonga are the new tahiti i dont have hawaii to check.

Take a look at this, it take the difficulty into the equation:
http://www.mycryptobuddy.com/EthereumMiningCalculator/path?hashrate=126&powerCost=0.08&power=700&chartView=profits

About the diff rise rate, there is just not enough gpu-s on the market to keep the diff rate. And even if there were enought if gpu diffrate increase with the same speed, once the profit becomes lower the new miners will be lower too. If this day a GPU gets ROI in 2 months, and diff goes x4 (which is impossible simple because there is no enough gpus in the world) and price stays the same , which means the ROI going to be 8 month, do you think the people will keep investing in rigs ? No of course. You should be really stupid to think that diff increase rate is constant.

[Marvell1]

I made a post about this, i think the gpu shortage is artifical
i see posts every day about this person or that farm sourcing gpus in 50 lott incremens
the big farms with large capital keep growing heck mine is small and i buy 10 1070s a week to replace
the 480s and 470s im selling.

diff will keep rising do not kid yourslef, The only hope is eth prices rise like zcash did to compensate
and i expect eth to be 700 by year end

[Vaccinus]

yeah the diff will increase always, there is no real shortage, who is thinking there are no gpu to buy is kidding himself, the diff of eth never stopped increase, big farm are adding constantly other gpu, until there is profit this trend will continue

[Tidsdilatation]

i think this is a good thing, get rid of all the money hungry noobs