Rig profit speculation(Please Help)

[correia.tp]

let's say I have a 130MH/s rig mining Etherium, 500w of power consumption, U$0.28cost per KW/h cost. According to this calculator, my profit in 1 month should be near $700.00(but it doesn't take into account rising difficulty).
https://i.imgur.com/zJsg19eg.png
Today, the profit per day is $ 23.29, if we assume the price of Ethereum won't change, taking into account the rising difficulty, what would be the daily profit of this rig after:

A) 1 month
B) 2 months
C) 6 months

I'm new into this and seems that the difficulty rises exponentially.
Thanks in advance.

[Marvell1]

let's say I have a 130MH/s rig mining Etherium, 500w of power consumption, U$0.28cost per KW/h cost. According to this calculator, my profit in 1 month should be near $700.00(but it doesn't take into account rising difficulty).

Today, the profit per day is $ 23.29, if we assume the price of Ethereum won't change, taking into account the rising difficulty, what would be the daily profit of this rig after:

A) 1 month
B) 2 months
C) 6 months

I'm new into this and seems that the difficulty rises exponentially.
Thanks in advance.

just factor a rise of 15% per month to be on the safe side so either add 15% more hash each month from your profits or watch your profits decline lol

its not rocket science , just project profit reduction by 15% each month so in your case in july you will see 23.29 * .85  = 19.79 a day  etc etc

again you can mitigate this problem by adding hash every month.

Now if the diff rise for the next month is lower than 15% then you have extra payouts always a good thing, if its higher god save u lol

[dbc23]

let's say I have a 130MH/s rig mining Etherium, 500w of power consumption, U$0.28cost per KW/h cost. According to this calculator, my profit in 1 month should be near $700.00(but it doesn't take into account rising difficulty).

Today, the profit per day is $ 23.29, if we assume the price of Ethereum won't change, taking into account the rising difficulty, what would be the daily profit of this rig after:

A) 1 month
B) 2 months
C) 6 months

I'm new into this and seems that the difficulty rises exponentially.
Thanks in advance.

just factor a rise of 15% per month to be on the safe side so either add 15% more hash each month from your profits or watch your profits decline lol

its not rocket science , just project profit reduction by 15% each month so in your case in july you will see 23.29 * .85  = 19.79 a day  etc etc

again you can mitigate this problem by adding hash every month.

Now if the diff rise for the next month is lower than 15% then you have extra payouts always a good thing, if its higher god save u lol

This is a very rough way to estimate ETH specifically, because of the additionall Diff bombs and PoS speculation there's more to factor in to the considerations. 

It's safe to assume (I think) that there's AT LEAST 6 months of reasonable net income potential from GPUs.  The real issue then is the scarcity and price of hardware at the moment.  It's going to be hard to bolster operations at a reasonable price point over the next few months, especially with the still unknown impact of Vega and (possible) new Nvidia cards hitting the market in the near future too.

I'd say to make a real world pessimistic estimate (plan for the worst, hope for the best) you should expect your profits to be quartered by Fall.  Still, making $25 today, that would still net ~$8/day by late this year.  That's still net income, and not insignifgant, but it won't be the same flood of money it is now.

Mining is a HOBBY, and should be treated as such, NOT a solid investment vehicle.  If you're in this just to make money there's easier and quicker ways to make profit by spending the money that would go into hardware on coins directly and looking into ICOs, day trading, and staking. 

If you really like tinkering with hardware and squeezing out max performance from your gear, then mining is actually fun.  It's not necesarily the best route to quick cash right now that it was 4-6 months ago though.

[correia.tp]

@Marvell1 Thanks, I feel safer knowing that.
@dbc23 I have no knowledge on trading, mining is a better option for me. If it goes wrong I still can sell the hardware and minimize losses.

[Tmdz]

Learn what the difficulty bomb is.

In short it means the difficulty will grow to extreme highs very soon.

in a little over 2 weeks your profit will get cut in half, then by the end of july or start of august it will get sliced in 1/2 once again.

That is until the next hard fork that updates eth and puts things back to normal, but who knows when that will be.

[poby]

Yeah you should assume at least 50% increase in difficulty per month.  15% would be nice but it's a long way from realistic.  With your electric cost, it's extremely unlikely you will make enough by the end of this year to pay for the electric.  Most likely well before then, it will cost more to run than it returns in revenue.

[adaseb]

Difficulty went up +17% in the last 48 hours ... so your +15% gain per month is not going to happen.

[hyet24]

@Marvell1 Thanks, I feel safer knowing that.
@dbc23 I have no knowledge on trading, mining is a better option for me. If it goes wrong I still can sell the hardware and minimize losses.

Tbh i thought the same few months ago.  then i finally combine mining with trading to maximize profits.  mining alone isnt too good.

[poby]

I'm actually being very optimistic predicting only 50% per month increase.  It's gone up around 100% in the past 30 days, and around 80% in the 30 before that.  It would be a relief if it would slow down to only 50% increase per month.  Good mining cards are getting harder to find in stock but not impossible.  There's still enough 1070's 1060's et al available and coming online that difficulty will continue to increase rapidly for many months to come.

If you are starting out mining now, do not expect to recover your costs, or at least not within a couple of years.  Do not look at the returns in the past few months and imagine they will continue at anything like that level for much longer.  Not going to happen.

[fcaldas]

I am thinking that zcash is seeing less of a difficulty bomb than ethereum, is that right?
So, what are you guys opinion on mining zcash instead of eth?

[Marvell1]

Yeah you should assume at least 50% increase in difficulty per month.  15% would be nice but it's a long way from realistic.  With your electric cost, it's extremely unlikely you will make enough by the end of this year to pay for the electric.  Most likely well before then, it will cost more to run than it returns in revenue.

50% that seems excesive when gpus were in stock higest diff increase was 30 percent

[poby]

Yeah you should assume at least 50% increase in difficulty per month.  15% would be nice but it's a long way from realistic.  With your electric cost, it's extremely unlikely you will make enough by the end of this year to pay for the electric.  Most likely well before then, it will cost more to run than it returns in revenue.

50% that seems excesive when gpus were in stock higest diff increase was 30 percent

I'm talking about monthly increase.  Gone up 100% in past month and 80% month before.  I don't know where you getting this 30% from. 

Even now, still plenty of GPUs coming online.  The best cards are hard to get but people are so desperate, they are buying up the 2nd and 3rd best.

[Marvell1]

Yeah you should assume at least 50% increase in difficulty per month.  15% would be nice but it's a long way from realistic.  With your electric cost, it's extremely unlikely you will make enough by the end of this year to pay for the electric.  Most likely well before then, it will cost more to run than it returns in revenue.

50% that seems excesive when gpus were in stock higest diff increase was 30 percent

I'm talking about monthly increase.  Gone up 100% in past month and 80% month before.  I don't know where you getting this 30% from.  

Even now, still plenty of GPUs coming online.  The best cards are hard to get but people are so desperate, they are buying up the 2nd and 3rd best.

hash rate was 30k or so last month 50k yeah that was a huge spike but before that it was 20k to 25k then 30k march april may, all counciding with the price spike, price seems to have stabilized a bit i cant see a jump higher than 15 to 20% going forward with the hsrdware shortages and lower price

[poby]

Yeah you should assume at least 50% increase in difficulty per month.  15% would be nice but it's a long way from realistic.  With your electric cost, it's extremely unlikely you will make enough by the end of this year to pay for the electric.  Most likely well before then, it will cost more to run than it returns in revenue.

50% that seems excesive when gpus were in stock higest diff increase was 30 percent

I'm talking about monthly increase.  Gone up 100% in past month and 80% month before.  I don't know where you getting this 30% from.  

Even now, still plenty of GPUs coming online.  The best cards are hard to get but people are so desperate, they are buying up the 2nd and 3rd best.

hash rate was 30k or so last month 50k yeah that was a huge spike but before that it was 20k to 25k then 30k march april may, all counciding with the price spike, price seems to have stabilized a bit i cant see a jump higher than 15 to 20% going forward with the hsrdware shortages and lower price

We not talking about hashrate, we talking about difficulty, which matters considerably more.

Current difficulty is       874,254,457M
Difficulty a month ago: 448,938,860M

This is close to 100% jump in 30 days.  This directly equates to a halving of coins received.