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Author Topic: [ NMR ] Numeraire - What do you think about?  (Read 10021 times)
derekz
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June 25, 2017, 08:28:55 AM
Last edit: June 25, 2017, 02:11:20 PM by derekz
 #1

Words like "hedge fund" "social" and "artificial intelligence" like them very much, but I want understand if I'm an investor or chicken  Grin

New star or pump>dump>end tomorrow ?


https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/numeraire/


https://numer.ai/


https://www.wired.com/2017/02/ai-hedge-fund-created-new-currency-make-wall-street-work-like-open-source/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6qvucC7zv0

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June 25, 2017, 12:29:06 PM
 #2

This one is going to boost fast, tons of data scientists competing each other inside Numeraire. that's insane lol.
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June 25, 2017, 02:10:42 PM
 #3


https://www.wired.com/2017/02/ai-hedge-fund-created-new-currency-make-wall-street-work-like-open-source/
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June 25, 2017, 02:19:37 PM
 #4

Numeraire (NMR)

I've looked into this one because i have some knowledge and experience of machine learning, data mining, and AI etc.

1. The recent distribution of NMR was to previous participants of their online tournments at the rate of 1$:4NMR (25 cents earned in a tournament got you 1 NMR).
2. Future distributions will be based on future tournament results.
3. The weekly winner of a tournment gets $1,000 and now also got 4000 NMR.
4. At current NMR prices on Bittrex, 4000 NMR is ~$0.5M
5. Compare point 4 and point 3 above and tell yourself whether NMR is currently over-priced.

* I think people who were recently distributed the 1,200,000 NMR and people who will be earning them going forward will be falling over themselves to sell while the prices are this ridicoulsly high. The golden period will be very short.

6. The purpose of NMR is to use them to stake your entry predictions in the weekly tournament.
7. If you think you will do well, you stake. If you do well, you get your original NMR back plus you now get a few more $$$'s. If you don't do well, you lose your NMR and they get burned forever.

Who in their right mind (and data scientists are pretty smart) are going to risk something say worth $150 to possibly gain $1 more when you could easily lose that $150 (NMR) = no one.
Therfore, the whole purpose of NMR will not work at current prices.

It is a P&D at the moment. A project that was paying out $250,000 - $300,000 a year is now miracously paying out $300million+ a year just because they released an ETH based token. Damn good time to be a data scientisit and a very bad time to be a NMR investor.

Just my opinion. I can mine millions of data points and turn it into information, but i can not predict the madness of people.
Smiley




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June 25, 2017, 04:51:23 PM
 #5

Numeraire (NMR)

I've looked into this one because i have some knowledge and experience of machine learning, data mining, and AI etc.

1. The recent distribution of NMR was to previous participants of their online tournments at the rate of 1$:4NMR (25 cents earned in a tournament got you 1 NMR).
2. Future distributions will be based on future tournament results.
3. The weekly winner of a tournment gets $1,000 and now also got 4000 NMR.
4. At current NMR prices on Bittrex, 4000 NMR is ~$0.5M
5. Compare point 4 and point 3 above and tell yourself whether NMR is currently over-priced.

* I think people who were recently distributed the 1,200,000 NMR and people who will be earning them going forward will be falling over themselves to sell while the prices are this ridicoulsly high. The golden period will be very short.

6. The purpose of NMR is to use them to stake your entry predictions in the weekly tournament.
7. If you think you will do well, you stake. If you do well, you get your original NMR back plus you now get a few more $$$'s. If you don't do well, you lose your NMR and they get burned forever.

Who in their right mind (and data scientists are pretty smart) are going to risk something say worth $150 to possibly gain $1 more when you could easily lose that $150 (NMR) = no one.
Therfore, the whole purpose of NMR will not work at current prices.

It is a P&D at the moment. A project that was paying out $250,000 - $300,000 a year is now miracously paying out $300million+ a year just because they released an ETH based token. Damn good time to be a data scientisit and a very bad time to be a NMR investor.

Just my opinion. I can mine millions of data points and turn it into information, but i can not predict the madness of people.
Smiley



shocking pump and dump. agreed.

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Whitepaper
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June 25, 2017, 05:18:36 PM
 #6

the concept is intriguing.

how is winner selected?
Not sure I follow ths point 7 and its conclusion. You bet in NMR and you win in NMR? So, why are you talking about 150=>1?
That only applies if price drops to 1/150th. Which can only happen 1 time (if at all).

Any other week, nmr=nmr. So I cannot understand your logic.

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June 25, 2017, 05:37:57 PM
 #7

I have read the Numeraire whitepaper, but I don't think this project need a token, sound concept but is like someone talking your Gold and given you Brass. All this token creation market will soon burst

.
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June 25, 2017, 06:03:14 PM
 #8

the concept is intriguing.

how is winner selected?
Not sure I follow ths point 7 and its conclusion. You bet in NMR and you win in NMR? So, why are you talking about 150=>1?
That only applies if price drops to 1/150th. Which can only happen 1 time (if at all).

Any other week, nmr=nmr. So I cannot understand your logic.

No. You stake NMR but can only win extra $$. The weekly stake pool is $1000. You do not get extra NMR if you win, just a share of the $1000. If you 'lose' then bye bye your NMR.

Its like betting a gold coin to win a dime. It's only worth it if that gold coin is worth a dime or less. Not if the gold coin is worth $100.

There has been 1200000 NMR issued recently, just so it can be staked in weekly tournaments worth $1000. Hmmmm, cant say there is much value in NMR.

All my own opinion of course. Doesn't mean the price of NMR wont bounce all over the place.


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June 25, 2017, 06:26:39 PM
 #9

I do not understand what you say. READ the whitepaper. I am quoting for you:

" After the initial distribution, the smart contract will mint a fixed number of Numeraire each week until the maximum is reached. By performing well in Numerai’s machine learning competition, data scientists will earn Numeraire on an ongoing basis. When data scientists are confident of the predictions they have made, they send Numeraire to the Numeraire Ethereum smart contract. The receiving contract will hold the data scientists’ Numeraire for some holding period t,with t suffciently large to judge performance on new data. After t has passed, Numerai will send a message to the contract with information on which data scientists’ predictions performed well on new data. Those data scientists whose predictions performed well earn dollars based on the auction mechanism, and their Numeraire are returned. Those data scientists whose predictions did not perform well on newdata risk having their Numeraire destroyed.
"

Clearly, participants get their Numeria back + Dollars, when they win the competition. your argument is wrong.

I am not even an ICO participant. Just trying to figure how big I should enter Nmr... Please help with facts not misconceptions.

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June 25, 2017, 10:38:06 PM
 #10

I do not understand what you say. READ the whitepaper. I am quoting for you:

" After the initial distribution, the smart contract will mint a fixed number of Numeraire each week until the maximum is reached. By performing well in Numerai’s machine learning competition, data scientists will earn Numeraire on an ongoing basis. When data scientists are confident of the predictions they have made, they send Numeraire to the Numeraire Ethereum smart contract. The receiving contract will hold the data scientists’ Numeraire for some holding period t,with t suffciently large to judge performance on new data. After t has passed, Numerai will send a message to the contract with information on which data scientists’ predictions performed well on new data. Those data scientists whose predictions performed well earn dollars based on the auction mechanism, and their Numeraire are returned. Those data scientists whose predictions did not perform well on newdata risk having their Numeraire destroyed.
"

Clearly, participants get their Numeria back + Dollars, when they win the competition. your argument is wrong.

I am not even an ICO participant. Just trying to figure how big I should enter Nmr... Please help with facts not misconceptions.

Haha, now you just trolling.

Re-read what i said "7. If you think you will do well, you stake. If you do well, you get your original NMR back plus you now get a few more $$$'s. If you don't do well, you lose your NMR and they get burned forever."

Wow, you staked 200 NMR and 'won'. You get your initial 200 NMR back and your extra $10 winnings. Best bet ever, risking to lose $20,000 to win $10.
-> Go all in mate, this one is pocket aces. Haha.

.
.
Sarcasm folks. Really think about this one.

I have every reason to hype, but i am telling it as it is because its truly insane.

I currently have 3 entries in the top 100 of this weeks numerai tournament. So i will be earning some NMR, just a matter of how many. Plus payout is 4 weeks after tournament so i have to wait.

I will even sell, for 50%, of current NMR value an entry of the expected winnings. That is how confident i am that price will fall later. I.e. i miss out on 50% value to get deal locked in now, any taker can easily double except for what the price will be 4 weeks from now.

Seriously anyone out there pm me, and we'll do a deal through a top escrow (blazed or OgNasty etc). The best +EV deal going. For example, position # 50 in the tournament pays out $3.15 + 12.61 NMR. I would sell an entry that will get you this position for 0.3btc. Example only. But my honest opinion is the price will drop and not hold, that's what logic says, but rarely is anything in crypto logical.

Good luck all.
Smiley

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June 26, 2017, 11:44:36 AM
 #11

buy nmr now scientist are always in error..popular discovery was a accident..they will lost their nmr and this coin will cost 0.1 soon  Wink

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June 26, 2017, 07:54:39 PM
 #12

Doesn't seem like there's any benefit to regular investors, seeing as the algorithm which produces profits for hedgefunds have no ties to the NMR token

A shame really, adios NMR
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June 26, 2017, 09:22:03 PM
 #13

To sum up, if I understood well:

- In Finance there are always losers and gainers. We cannot gain altogether (we are not in a world full of lollipops and candies)
- Machine learning (ML and the sub-field of Deep Learning are very hyped right now) and more and more people use data/bots/machine learning to trades
- Numerai want to create the best model to predict the stocks
- So they will give Numerai coins to all data scientists that participate to Numerai challenges to improve the accuracy of stock predictions.
- Hence, all data scientists are encouraged to work all together to improve the accuracy of the stock predictions and earn rewards (Numerai coins).

All, in all, the idea is good, because It encourages data scientists to work all together to earn Numerai coins and improve stock predictions. Moreover
deep learning is overhyped right now so this project can easily pump (well it pumps hard and dump hard)

The remaining question is: we improve the accuracy of stocks prediction and so what? If everybody has access to the algorithm, everybody will anticipate
the stock price and it won't improve the situation overall. The thing is that of course, they won't share the best model they have found. It's like giving money
to top data scientists in the world to find the best model to predict stocks. The datascientists are quite happy as they earned something, but the real winner in
the story is the hedge fund... ofc
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July 01, 2017, 08:24:12 PM
 #14

I do not understand what you say. READ the whitepaper. I am quoting for you:

" After the initial distribution, the smart contract will mint a fixed number of Numeraire each week until the maximum is reached. By performing well in Numerai’s machine learning competition, data scientists will earn Numeraire on an ongoing basis. When data scientists are confident of the predictions they have made, they send Numeraire to the Numeraire Ethereum smart contract. The receiving contract will hold the data scientists’ Numeraire for some holding period t,with t suffciently large to judge performance on new data. After t has passed, Numerai will send a message to the contract with information on which data scientists’ predictions performed well on new data. Those data scientists whose predictions performed well earn dollars based on the auction mechanism, and their Numeraire are returned. Those data scientists whose predictions did not perform well on newdata risk having their Numeraire destroyed.
"

Clearly, participants get their Numeria back + Dollars, when they win the competition. your argument is wrong.

I am not even an ICO participant. Just trying to figure how big I should enter Nmr... Please help with facts not misconceptions.

Haha, now you just trolling.

Re-read what i said "7. If you think you will do well, you stake. If you do well, you get your original NMR back plus you now get a few more $$$'s. If you don't do well, you lose your NMR and they get burned forever."

Wow, you staked 200 NMR and 'won'. You get your initial 200 NMR back and your extra $10 winnings. Best bet ever, risking to lose $20,000 to win $10.
-> Go all in mate, this one is pocket aces. Haha.

.
.
Sarcasm folks. Really think about this one.

I have every reason to hype, but i am telling it as it is because its truly insane.

I currently have 3 entries in the top 100 of this weeks numerai tournament. So i will be earning some NMR, just a matter of how many. Plus payout is 4 weeks after tournament so i have to wait.

I will even sell, for 50%, of current NMR value an entry of the expected winnings. That is how confident i am that price will fall later. I.e. i miss out on 50% value to get deal locked in now, any taker can easily double except for what the price will be 4 weeks from now.

Seriously anyone out there pm me, and we'll do a deal through a top escrow (blazed or OgNasty etc). The best +EV deal going. For example, position # 50 in the tournament pays out $3.15 + 12.61 NMR. I would sell an entry that will get you this position for 0.3btc. Example only. But my honest opinion is the price will drop and not hold, that's what logic says, but rarely is anything in crypto logical.

Good luck all.
Smiley



thanks and sorry for misreading your post earlier Smiley

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July 03, 2017, 12:58:30 AM
 #15

Post by Numerai founder Richard Craib: https://forum.numer.ai/t/the-new-numerai-economy/347

Changing NMR payout with a 90% reduction.

"
Just over a week ago, Numerai was paying out $14,700 per month to our data scientists. A few days ago, this number reached $9.8 million per month because of secondary market trading activity in our new crypto token Numeraire.
.
.
.

Changes
* Reduce NMR payouts ~90% to NMR 1510 per week
* Increase staking payouts 3x to USD 3000 per week

These changes will apply immediately to the current Numerai tournament, and all unresolved tournaments as well including all stakes."



Sad for NMR
so it will be better to stake NMR? that is huge
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July 06, 2017, 05:52:00 PM
 #16

|Anyone knows how many NMR are destroyed per week vs how many created?

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July 17, 2017, 02:08:43 AM
 #17

Guys

There is no official thread page of NMR on bitcointalk or what??? Grin

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August 09, 2017, 06:59:38 PM
 #18

Numeraire is one coin i found to be at bottom. With active development and great community (being in there slack).  As per TA just now signaled some breakout. Its @1/4th of its ATH.  So FOMO can come easily to this,if a whale catch it.

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August 09, 2017, 07:53:09 PM
 #19

Indeed, sub 30$ for this coin is a STEAL!
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August 13, 2017, 08:26:44 PM
 #20

I got on board recently as well. First time I noticed it was when Julian Yap tweeted about it being a very interesting project. He's usually very spot on, so I went and read more about the project. I believe it's going to get pretty big in the next few months.
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