[poll] 200$ bitcoins?

[adamstgBit]

[wobber]

over 500 until July

[Cubic Earth]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

[wobber]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

I wonder what effect China will have.

[FocusMedia]

Hope not, I still haven't rebought.

[Frozenlock]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

I wonder what effect China will have.

I wonder what effect the moon will have.

[wobber]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

I wonder what effect China will have.

I wonder what effect the moon will have.

I wonder also. Let's hold hands.

[UltimateReaper]

I think not. Probably.

[adamstgBit]

I think not. Probably.

but maybe?

[UltimateReaper]

I think not. Probably.

but maybe?

Maybe. But probably not. 2 weeks is short term. Short term is down. Long term however? Sure, eventually. Mid term: ? In my mind thats the great mystery.

Lots of pumping power right now however. Who knows how that will go.

[MOB]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

I wonder what effect China will have.

I wonder what effect the moon will have.

You mean the thing that controls the tides?  Making them rise and fall?

[Awhut]

Well of course I don't know, but I would guess they stay under $200.  I wonder what effect the conference might have on the price.

I wonder what effect China will have.

I wonder what effect the moon will have.

Tomorrow is a new moon!!! Coincidence?!!

[Stunna]

Next two weeks seems unlikely, but I'd be willing to gamble a great amount that they will rise over $200 once again.

[hopelessinvestor]

https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/7266761984/hF9FF972B/

There's always plan BTC!

[Zaih]

Yeh I'm feeling it. Nice mems too 

[BitPirate]

It's a strong possibility.

Short-term dumps are over. Seriously -- you'd have to be a bit thick to keep on dumping hoping to affect the market in order to get "cheap coins". The message must be getting through by now.

These last few weeks have been fantastic buying opportunities for the rest of us.

It's been a negative news cycle -- all too expected really after the ridiculous euphoria earlier; and we saw a correction rather than a be-all-end-all crash.

We're seeing the start of a positive news cycle now, with Coinbase receiving significant funding, and other new exchanges opening up. Bitcoin conference just around the corner, with plenty of new deals being announced I'm sure. Speculators are looking a bit more mature this time around too. Alt coins are looking increasingly silly -- the pump 'n dumps there are done too.

The sub-$150 doldrums will soon be a thing of the past.

I don't discount a few last-gasp efforts to temporarily depress the price -- people always have a capacity to be more stupid that you expect, but clearly there are diminishing returns in that route. So, the only way is up really...

Once buying pressure resumes, breaking through $200 by 22 May is a very real possibility. I'd say ~40% likelihood; another 40% likelihood we will be between $150 and $200.

TLDR: I voted "Yes". :-)

[FNG]

There's a good chance IMO. Pretty much what BitPirate said. 

My gut says thinks pick up over the next few days, momentum builds, and the bull run continues. Maybe we'll get some more VC or bitcoin company announcements next week. The space is heating up.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Remember whe the price was largely insensitive to bad news, like the fork? Well now it's the opposite; we've had a ton of great news (Paypal, WU, Facebook ex-exec with Zuckerberg's ear, other big VCs at the Techcrunch conference, China, China, China!) and the price is simply coiling up like a spring exactly on the 2013 exponential trendline at a little over $100.

All in all I see three salient factors.

1) The old faithful trendline has us taking another 3-4 weeks to reach $200:



2) Coiling like a snake ready to strike (read: surge could happen faster, maybe within 2 weeks)

3) But sentiment remains somewhat pessimistic, or probably more accurate to say "stubborn to react to good news" (suggests the coiling might continue for a bit longer, more than 2 weeks)

Therefore, I estimate 30-40% chance of reaching $200, with 60% confidence on those odds. In other words, "I don't know" leaning toward "No," but that of course also still implies a not-insignificant chance of "Yes." (I voted "I don't know.")

[oda.krell]

Remember whe the price was largely insensitive to bad news, like the fork? Well now it's the opposite; we've had a ton of great news (Paypal, WU, Facebook ex-exec with Zuckerberg's ear, other big VCs at the Techcrunch conference, China, China, China!) and the price is simply coiling up like a spring exactly on the 2013 exponential trendline at a little over $100.

All in all I see three salient factors.

1) The old faithful trendline has us taking another 3-4 weeks to reach $200:



2) Coiling like a snake ready to strike (read: surge could happen faster, maybe within 2 weeks)

3) But sentiment remains somewhat pessimistic, or probably more accurate to say "stubborn to react to good news" (suggests the coiling might continue for a bit longer, more than 2 weeks)

Therefore, I estimate 30-40% chance of reaching $200, with 60% confidence on those odds. In other words, "I don't know" leaning toward "No," but that of course also still implies a not-insignificant chance of "Yes." (I voted "I don't know.")

Haha, I really like your argument, also completely agree with your 3 salient factors, but you have to teach me how you get from that argument to not only a likelihood estimation in percentage but also an estimation of your confidence interval. Black magic!

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Nothing black magic, just additional info. The confidence is based on introspection on my ability to faithfully match estimated visceral sense of odds with hard percentages. It's simply not as useful to say just "30-40% chance of Yes," when that could mean "I'm 90% confident that there's a 30-40% chance of Yes" or "I reached the conclusion that there's a 30-40% chance of Yes, but I'm only 55% confident in that conclusion."

It's something I wish everyone would do when they give their estimated odds on something, so I'm doing it.