Starting to mine Litecoins with Antminer L3+ from September/October 2017. Questions about profitability predictions from the day one, possible ROI and lifespan of L3+ mining.
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Hi guys,
I'm new here and new on cryptocurrency overall, so I apologize if I cannot be clear enough with my first post or if my perception of what I'm writing is totally wrong.
I want to make my first investment on bitcoins/altcoins mining, but before I do that, I would like to get some suggestions and clarifications from you guys whether it's worth it or not, or whether my calculations are a simple newbie mistakes.
It took me like two weeks of reading almost every day in order to understand the business of mining in general. First thing I've noticed was that I'm too late for this shit. I know! But better late than never. Anyways!
In a meantime I got some knowledge about network difficulty, hashrates, electricity cost, etc, in order to calculate the profit and have in mind on what to look for and where. During this time of research, Antminer S9 was the first hardware that caught my eye, but then I got somehow disappointed from mining bitcoins after I saw the estimate profit and the ROI timespan. Then I've found the Antminer L3+ as the most profitable miner compared to the other mining hardware. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw the possible earnings of almost 1 LTC per day ($35+ at current rate) with one Antminer L3+, making ROI for 45 days estimated. Too promising!
After all researches and calculations I did during this period, I made up my mind to invest in Antminer L3+, but then there was one thing at the end that made me think twice and also write this post.
Shipping on 16-20 September (consider here shipping delay, plus add some other possible delays like customs clearance process, mining setup, etc, let's say you cannot start mining before the beginning of October 2017).First mining after 4 months from now.Having this in mind, I started to search today for difficulty predictions and do some analysis to see if I'm fooling my self expecting the profit with the current rate profit of mining litecoins. Somehow it turned out to be true
(or maybe not, which I hope), and that's why I came here to ask you if this prediction is something that we can rely on. I knew from the beginning that I won't be able to make the same profit as the current profit, but at least I didn't expect this much...
I've found a website that prints out a timetable by predicting the difficulty increment
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/detailcalculationltc.php?name=LiteCoin_Mining_Rig&startdate=2017-06-26&costperunit=2500&wattperhour=850&gigahazarate=504000&daytoincrease=3&testlopfirst=1&diffincrement=5&bitcoinperdollar=37.66&electriccostinput=.08&begindifflevel=255206The timetable has specs of 1x Antminer L3+.
Note from the website:
"Estimate future difficulty increments is 5.0352% based on past difficulty increments and current exchange rate."I'm not sure if this difficulty increment prediction is accumulated based on the history of more than one month, or just the last difficulty increment (June 24, 5.87%) but I believe that if this is from the January, then 6 months is a solid resource to get a prediction, but since this is variable, the biggest help could come from the experienced users, telling us if this kind of change is likely to happen based on your long experience with bitcoins/altcoins mining.
Why I'm saying this? Because there is one key element in this timetable that made me think if the prediction of 5% increment is reliable:
Big drop of daily income for just 4 months. Making it impossible to get the investment back.
From the table above, take a look at the beginning of October and the end of December:
network difficulty prediction: 5%, LTC/USD rate 36.77:
01 Oct 2017 daily incomes: 0.1963 LTC (first day)
30 Dec 2017 daily incomes: 0.0450 LTC (91 days)
// Total LTC income to this day: 9.61 LTCIf the LTC/USD rate will stay 35/45 USD until January, Antminer L3+ will reach its 'End of Life' service in the beginning of 2018, as the cost of electricity will be higher then the total revenue. Not sure if LTC rate will stay at the same price but with this difficulty increment, if the price of LTC doesn't get the tripple value in USD, to my opinion, the powerful L3+ miner will become a powerful trash very soon.
In a meanwhile, I have changed the difficulty prediction to 2.5%
(which I expect that this is very likely to happen) just to see how long does it take to get the investment back, and it goes more then 6 months starting from October, making it more than 9 months in total, maybe 10, considering that you have to pay now for pre-order plus not including the electricity bill.
difficulty prediction: 2.5%
01 Oct 2017 daily incomes: 0.4397 LTC (first day)
30 Dec 2017 daily incomes: 0.2096 LTC (91 days)
// Total LTC income to this day: 28.93 LTC30 Mar 2018 daily incomes: 0.0999 LTC (181 days)
// Total LTC income to this day: 42.09 LTCWould like to hear from you regarding the prediction calculations from your long experience with bitcoin/altcoin mining, were there situation in the past where predictions like this were reported but it didn't really happened in reality. Can this prediction goes even worse when the release of L3+ September batch starts mining, etc. I will really appreciate this.
Also, is there anyone who started to mine with L3+ from May or beginning of June? Would like to know if their LTC income was 2 LTC per day. If yes, then this will strength the prediction above.
And the last question, based on your experience with mining, how often were you forced to upgrade the hardware to keep your self in mining?
Aaand yes, PLEASE tell me that my calculation is COMPLETELY WRONG!
That will make my day.
Duh! Very long post. I hope somewone will read it
