Predictions for the next bubble

[xavier]

Never. The bitcoin experiment has ran it's course and will be replaced by better, more scalable, more stable, faster cryptocurrencies. Those left holding bitcoins into 2015 waiting for the next bubble will be the last suckers standing.

THIS

Since the bubble burst, we are in a long term bear market, ending with bitcoin eventually going to $0. Any short term rallies from here on are bear traps, beware!

My view is with BubbleBoy, the bubble has burst and is not coming back. Sorry guys. Anyone who bought high and is waiting, reduce your holdings dramatically now whilst we are in a short term bull market.

Bitcoin has had it's glory days. It will be replaced by something.

Once again we are in a bear market now. I predict further price declines over the coming weeks and monrths with the price eventually falling below $50 and eventually to $0. However, keep watching the cryptocurrency space for something better to emerge. Bitcoin has led the path to the future, but the future will not be bitcoin.

[schmokel]

Never. The bitcoin experiment has ran it's course and will be replaced by better, more scalable, more stable, faster cryptocurrencies. Those left holding bitcoins into 2015 waiting for the next bubble will be the last suckers standing.

THIS

Since the bubble burst, we are in a long term bear market, ending with bitcoin eventually going to $0. Any short term rallies from here on are bear traps, beware!

My view is with BubbleBoy, the bubble has burst and is not coming back. Sorry guys. Anyone who bought high and is waiting, reduce your holdings dramatically now whilst we are in a short term bull market.

Bitcoin has had it's glory days. It will be replaced by something.

Once again we are in a bear market now. I predict further price declines over the coming weeks and monrths with the price eventually falling below $50 and eventually to $0. However, keep watching the cryptocurrency space for something better to emerge. Bitcoin has led the path to the future, but the future will not be bitcoin.

This.  BTC got millions of people thinking about cryptocurrencies.  In that respect, it was a resounding success.  However, I agree that it will be replaced within a few years.  I'm not sure what will take its place, but it will feature more de-centralization, less susceptibility to KP injections and 51% attacks, and (most importantly) will be readily convertible to some useful form to give it a minimum level of value.  Currently, it requires more faith than fiat.  Time will tell.

[samson]

Never. The bitcoin experiment has ran it's course and will be replaced by better, more scalable, more stable, faster cryptocurrencies. Those left holding bitcoins into 2015 waiting for the next bubble will be the last suckers standing.

THIS

Since the bubble burst, we are in a long term bear market, ending with bitcoin eventually going to $0. Any short term rallies from here on are bear traps, beware!

My view is with BubbleBoy, the bubble has burst and is not coming back. Sorry guys. Anyone who bought high and is waiting, reduce your holdings dramatically now whilst we are in a short term bull market.

Bitcoin has had it's glory days. It will be replaced by something.

Once again we are in a bear market now. I predict further price declines over the coming weeks and monrths with the price eventually falling below $50 and eventually to $0. However, keep watching the cryptocurrency space for something better to emerge. Bitcoin has led the path to the future, but the future will not be bitcoin.

This.  BTC got millions of people thinking about cryptocurrencies.  In that respect, it was a resounding success.  However, I agree that it will be replaced within a few years.  I'm not sure what will take its place, but it will feature more de-centralization, less susceptibility to KP injections and 51% attacks, and (most importantly) will be readily convertible to some useful form to give it a minimum level of value.  Currently, it requires more faith than fiat.  Time will tell.

It's not in any way a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will fail. Bitcoin could evolve into it's own replacement.

That's up to the dev team though.

[KFR]

It's not in any way a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will fail. Bitcoin could evolve into it's own replacement.

Perhaps it already has.  e.g. Litecoin

[samson]

It's not in any way a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will fail. Bitcoin could evolve into it's own replacement.

Perhaps it already has.  e.g. Litecoin

LOL, Liteoin is no advancement. It's just a proof of work coin, very similar to Bitcoin with some tweaks in block generation times, etc.

I like the sound of the Proof Of Stake system, now that's a real advancement.

[Wekkel]

There still is no alternative for Bitcoin, so pronouncing it dead at $100 is a it premature. The fun hasn't started yet.

[KFR]

LOL, Liteoin is no advancement. It's just a proof of work coin, very similar to Bitcoin with some tweaks in block generation times, etc.

It's more than that actually.  And some of us believe that the choice of hashing algorithm will become increasingly relevant.  Scrypt is ASIC-resistant.  SHA-256 positively cries out for ASIC mining.  That's important when it comes to securing against hashing dominance problems such as 51% etc.

[Frozenlock]

Scrypt is ASIC-resistant.

No it's not. It might be harder to do, but if the monetary incentives are there, ASICs will appear.

It was also GPU resistant... until it wasn't anymore.

[BubbleBoy]

Litecoin will not disrupt Bitcoin because it's not sufficiently different. It will eat away at bitcoin's market share and prove the point that there's nothing special, magic or "gold-like" about the current chain. The crypto periodic table has an infinite number of elements, and the scarcity can be customized at will: fixed number, exponential increase, just one etc. And if it's scarce, easy to transport and well distributed, then it's money. Litecoin will inflate Bitcoin, it's already a practical crypto that you can use instead of Bitcoin for many things: buy drugs on Atlantis, store in a cold wallet, send fiat around the world with high privacy etc.

Bitcoin's merchant deployment is a shallow moat: it's only a matter of time until folks like BitPay etc. add more payment options shielding away the merchant from the details of the actual crypto the user is paying with. Even homebrew Bitcoin payment systems can be easily retrofitted to support Bitcoin forks.

[KFR]

I would suggest that the hashrate gap between an optimised Scrypt ASIC and a GPU is far less than the gap between an optimised SHA-256 ASIC and a GPU.   AMD etc. have already been working on chips that work a lot like a good Scrypt ASIC for many years now.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Bitcoin is anywhere near past its prime just yet.  But long term, and as things stand right now, I'd back a well configured Scrypt-based altcoin over a well configured SHA-256 based altcoin.  At the moment Litecoin looks good both in terms of adoption potential (i.e. processing speed) and long term stability (resistance to hashrate dominance). 

Just my thoughts;  not trying to evangelise or upset the applecart.  But I do sometimes fear that the Bitcoin evangelists, whom I fully support, blinker themselves to future possibilities.

[smoothie]

It's not in any way a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will fail. Bitcoin could evolve into it's own replacement.

Perhaps it already has.  e.g. Litecoin

LOL, Liteoin is no advancement. It's just a proof of work coin, very similar to Bitcoin with some tweaks in block generation times, etc.

I like the sound of the Proof Of Stake system, now that's a real advancement.

The POS algorithm is exactly that a Sound.

The PPC POS algorithm is still broken from last December. The "fixes" implemented since have not been publicly discussed nor has it been proven to actually be a viable POS algorithm.

But you are right, the SOUND of POS system is nice...it just isn't a reality yet.

[smoothie]

Scrypt is ASIC-resistant.

No it's not. It might be harder to do, but if the monetary incentives are there, ASICs will appear.

It was also GPU resistant... until it wasn't anymore.

You are assuming they mean Litecoin is ASIC-proof. Right now it is "resistent" because there are no ASICs lol.

No one said it was ASIC PROOF.

[smoothie]

I would suggest that the hashrate gap between an optimised Scrypt ASIC and a GPU is far less than the gap between an optimised SHA-256 ASIC and a GPU.   AMD etc. have already been working on chips that work a lot like a good Scrypt ASIC for many years now.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Bitcoin is anywhere near past its prime just yet.  But long term, and as things stand right now, I'd back a well configured Scrypt-based altcoin over a well configured SHA-256 based altcoin.  At the moment Litecoin looks good both in terms of adoption potential (i.e. processing speed) and long term stability (resistance to hashrate dominance). 

Just my thoughts;  not trying to evangelise or upset the applecart.  But I do sometimes fear that the Bitcoin evangelists, whom I fully support, blinker themselves to future possibilities.

Agreed.

So many naysayers of LTC are now silent because of the recent adoption of LTC by many. Yes it is speculative, as is Bitcoin.

Anyone claiming LTC was a scam is also saying BTC was a scam.

[giantdragon]

It will eat away at bitcoin's market share and prove the point that there's nothing special, magic or "gold-like" about the current chain. The crypto periodic table has an infinite number of elements, and the scarcity can be customized at will: fixed number, exponential increase, just one etc. And if it's scarce, easy to transport and well distributed, then it's money. Litecoin will inflate Bitcoin, it's already a practical crypto that you can use instead of Bitcoin for many things: buy drugs on Atlantis, store in a cold wallet, send fiat around the world with high privacy etc.

The same way Litecoin can be inflated by other cryptocurrencies. Feathercoin does this already IMHO.

Bitcoin have supreme advantage over all other cryptocurrencies - higher security (due to higher network hash rate) and ASICs. Just think, which currency large investors will prefer? I very doubt that Litecoin !

[samson]

The POS algorithm is exactly that a Sound.

The PPC POS algorithm is still broken from last December. The "fixes" implemented since have not been publicly discussed nor has it been proven to actually be a viable POS algorithm.

But you are right, the SOUND of POS system is nice...it just isn't a reality yet.

It's a work in progress from what I understand, one day it will all be resolved.

Buy your PPC before then.

I suspect you have a secret stash of PPC anyway.

[w1R903]

but it will feature more de-centralization, less susceptibility to KP injections

What the hell is a KP injection?

[xavier]

but it will feature more de-centralization, less susceptibility to KP injections

What the hell is a KP injection?

Lol

[solidshotnosh]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating what the power of familiarity can produce.

In my opinion, the advantage of bitcoin is it being the "first" mover in becoming a mainstream crypto-currency.

I also think the name in itself is extremely powerful. It sound simple, yet invokes a sort of cyber future image.

Litecoin and Feathercoin just sound weak in comparison. (Phonetically weak)


I think we will soon start to see threads about how much is 'insert crypto currency' in BTC instead of how much fiat is BTC worth.

[hubbabubbabaker]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating what the power of familiarity can produce.

In my opinion, the advantage of bitcoin is it being the "first" mover in becoming a mainstream crypto-currency.

I also think the name in itself is extremely powerful. It sound simple, yet invokes a sort of cyber future image.

Litecoin and Feathercoin just sound weak in comparison. (Phonetically weak)


I think we will soon start to see threads about how much is 'insert crypto currency' in BTC instead of how much fiat is BTC worth.

I've noticed this as well. Altcoins don't really have the same marketable ring to them that bitcoin does. But that doesn't mean someone can't still create an alternative, it only further discredits the power of the current substitutes.

[ThatDGuy]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating what the power of familiarity can produce.

In my opinion, the advantage of bitcoin is it being the "first" mover in becoming a mainstream crypto-currency.

I also think the name in itself is extremely powerful. It sound simple, yet invokes a sort of cyber future image.

Litecoin and Feathercoin just sound weak in comparison. (Phonetically weak)


I think we will soon start to see threads about how much is 'insert crypto currency' in BTC instead of how much fiat is BTC worth.

I've noticed this as well. Altcoins don't really have the same marketable ring to them that bitcoin does. But that doesn't mean someone can't still create an alternative, it only further discredits the power of the current substitutes.

The diluted altcoin market is likely where (if) Bitcoin's eventual successor will appear.

Bitcoin's first mover advantage could well be the most important factor, however.