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美股一波三折赶顶,环球同此凉热?!
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Topic: 美股一波三折赶顶,环球同此凉热?! (Read 137 times)
Pdaoieilly
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美股一波三折赶顶,环球同此凉热?!
July 02, 2017, 05:24:42 PM
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原标题:美股一波三折赶顶,环球同此凉热?!
事不过三。
这个规律或许正在美股市场悄悄地发挥作用。
我们先来看看美股三大指数这三天的走势。6月27日,道琼斯指数大跌98.89点,跌幅达0.46%;纳斯达克指数大跌100.53点,跌幅达1.61%;标普500大跌19.69点,跌幅达0.81%。6月28日,道指反弹143点,涨幅0.68%;纳指反弹87.79点,涨幅1.43%;标普500反弹21.31点,涨幅0.88%。6月29日,道指再次大跌167点,跌幅为0.78%;纳指大跌90.06点,跌幅为1.44%;标普500大跌20.99点,跌幅为0.86%。
是不是有点大打出手的味道?是不是有点大开大合的意思?是不是美股在这里做顶的概率在上升?
6月27日发生了一件事,而这件事让特朗普兴奋得不能自已,因为一贯和他作对的CNN开除了三个调查记者,三个调查特朗普“通俄门”的资深记者,而伴随这个结果流传出来的录音证明,CNN对于特朗普的确有先入为主的主观敌意,尽管CNN开除记者只是他们在发稿程序上的问题,但是这并不妨碍特朗普把矛头指向类似《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》包括三大有线电视网在内的美国媒体。而根据美股过去,其实也就是过年的走势,美股的反应就该是一路小碎步昂首向上;但是事实上,特朗普式的刺激在市场上仅仅维持了一天。
事不过三。
5月17日,美国媒体报道,特朗普曾要求FBI局长科米结束对前国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林的调查,而事实如果成立,特朗普将面临被弹劾的可能。当天,道指大跌372点,纳指大跌158点,标普500大跌43.64点,更有不少对冲基金预言,弹劾成立的话,美股会面临10%左右的跌幅;但是,事实上,这样的担心只存在一天,第二天,道指会一路向上,连涨7天,冲破前期头部,从20553点一路涨到21528点,涨4.7%,纳指同样从6009点涨到6341点,涨幅达到5.5%,标普的涨幅也是4.3%。
当然,美股最夸张的涨势是在特朗普胜选之后,谁都知道华尔街精英是希拉里的支持者,甚至连美联储主席耶伦都明目张胆地支持希拉里,为此甚至不惜推迟美元加息进程,特朗普作为黑天鹅出现之时,欧洲股市均告暴跌,而道指期货亦曾盘前跌停,不过,让人大跌眼镜的是,华尔街开市之后,美股却开创了有史以来少见的连续上扬,时间长达半年之久,道指从17883点涨到21535点,涨幅20%,纳指从5034点涨到6341点,涨幅为25.96%,标普500从2083点涨到2453.82点,涨幅为17.76%。不得不说的是,这发生在2016年11月,此前的美国股市从2009年3月的低点6469.95点算起,已经走过了长达8年的牛市。25%,按照一般欧美股市的规律足以让牛熊发生转换,所以,这个地方不是一般的顶,可以肯定地判断,这是顶上顶。
事不过三。
特朗普效应或许真的到该画句号的时候了,毕竟美元加息已经是第四次了,距离第六次发生逆转效应的时间也不多了;毕竟最新公布的美国的GDP数据又往上修正了不少,复苏的走势真不错;毕竟,特朗普的政策绝大多数目前只停留在口惠而实不至的阶段,而指数已经透支太多,市场给特朗普的面子已经足够。
美股是全球资本市场的风向标,美股走软,欧股先跌,美股大跌,欧股崩盘;不但欧美连体,实际上亚太市场亦是如此,日本、中国香港、新加坡实质是跟随性市场,K线上充满缺口,美股如果结束牛市周期,那么港股同样会重回熊市调整,A股会怎样,跟跌不跟涨是最坏的预期,独立自主我行我素更多的是愿望,加入了MSCI的新兴市场指数,联动效应只会强不会弱,中国韭菜遭遇中外联合收割机,打掉牙只能往肚里咽,这就叫哑巴吃黄连。
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